Detroit Lions vs. Tennessee Titans preview, score prediction: On Paper

The Detroit Lions are back at home this week, hoping not to lose some of the energy from last week’s big win over the MInnesota Vikings—or look too far ahead to next week’s important tilt with the Green Bay Packers.

The Tennessee Titans are not a good team at 1-5 on the season, but they do some things well that could give Detroit some problems and make this game close.

Let’s dive deep into Lions vs. Titans in our Week 8 preview and prediction. It’s On Paper time!

Lions pass offense (7th in DVOA) vs. Titans pass defense (15th)

Given how well they’re playing right now, Detroit’s slow offensive start is now a fading memory. What was once ranked the 20th pass offense by DVOA in Week 4 has climbed to seventh after three outstanding games from Jared Goff and the Lions’ passing attack. From Week 3 on, the Lions rank first in the following categories:

• Passer rating (147.0)
• Completion percentage (83.0%)
• Touchdown percentage (10.6%)
• Yards per attempt (10.8)
• Adjusted yards gained per attempt (12.4)

And they’re second only to the Ravens in the following categories:

• EPA/dropback (0.476)
• Dropback success rate (55.8%)

In other words, the Lions are becoming unstoppable passing the ball. You could argue Detroit has played some questionable defenses early in the season, but the pass last week’s test against the Vikings to clear any doubts.

If there is any concern about the Lions’ passing attack, it’s been just an above-average performance from their pass protection unit. Detroit only ranks 14th in team pass blocking PFF grade (69.4), 17th in adjusted sack rate, but fifth in ESPN pass block win rate. With Kevin Zeitler expected to be back in the lineup this week, it could help some of the issues they had in Minnesota with Kayode Awosika (four pressures allowed, three penalties) last week.

The Titans pass defense has been up and down this year. On one hand, they’ve held every opponent but one to under 200 yards passing, which, on its surface, is an outstanding feat. A little shine comes off that when you look at the passing attacks they’ve faced, which includes Caleb Williams in his first ever start, a Malik Willis-led Packers team and a Tyler Huntley-led Dolphins squad. Additionally, they’ve allowed a passer rating above 98 in three of their six games. Last week against the Bills, they faced their best quarterback yet, and Josh Allen absolutely torched them in the second half, completing 17-of-22 passes for 258 yards, two touchdowns and a 145.6 passer rating in the final two quarters.

The raw statistics look good, but remember to keep the strength of opponent in mind when you read the following numbers:

• Yards per attempt: 6.3 (third)
• Passer rating: 89.3 (17th)
• Dropback EPA: 0.054 (20th)
• Dropback success rate: 40.1% (fifth)

The Titans have a couple of very capable players in the secondary, including former Lions safety Quandre Diggs and high-priced free agent cornerback L’Jarius Sneed. However, it’s unclear who will be available this week. Sneed missed last week’s game with a quad injury and missed Thursday’s practice. Additionally, starting cornerback Chidobe Awuzie was placed on IR after three games, leaving Tennessee potentially vulnerable on the perimeter.

Their pass rush is adequate, depending on your preferred measuring tool. They’re eighth in ESPN’s pass rush win rate, but just 22nd in PFF team pass rush grade. One thing is for certain: Harold Landry is their best option at creating pressure. He leads the team with 14 pressures (per PFF) and he has accounted for four of the team’s 10 sacks. Overall, I’m not too worried about their ability to pressure the quarterback.

Player to watch: Jahmyr Gibbs. Gibbs has quietly seen his receiving game take an uptick in the past two weeks. He has 11 catches on 13 targets in two games. The Titans rank 22nd in defensive DVOA vs. backs in the passing game and they just traded away their best linebacker in Ernest Jones.

Advantage: Lions +2.5. The Titans play two-high defense, and it has led them to be the most efficient defense against deep passes (-0.46 EPA/play). So if Detroit is missing Jameson Williams this week, it may not be too costly. Tennessee is far less efficient defending intermediate passes (+0.50 EPA/play, 23rd), so don’t be surprised if Amon-Ra St. Brown eats this week.

Lions run offense (2nd) vs. Titans run defense (6th)

Detroit has faced a lot of really bad rushing defenses this year, but they proved their legitimacy without a doubt last week by producing against the best run defense in football. While Detroit’s success rate last week in Minnesota (29.6%) was far below their season average (46.9%), they were still able to produce big plays and finish strong.

For the season, the Lions rank fifth in success rate, fifth in EPA/run, ninth in yards per carry (4.9), and second in adjusted line yards. They’re just as successful run blocking (sixth in PFF grade, fourth in run block win rate), as the backs are at creating extra yards (86.9 PFF rushing grade, sixth). It’s a well-oiled machine, and with Zeitler expected to be back, they’re going to be at their most optimal lineup.

The only “bad” game the Titans have had defending the run was against the Packers, and that was largely influenced by Malik Willis rushing for 73 yards on six carries. [Editor’s note: Man, that Willis is pretty good.] The rest of the Packers crew totaled 115 yards on 31 carries for an average of just 3.7 yards per carry. Josh Jacobs, who is averaging 4.5 yards per carry for the Packers, had just 43 yards on 14 carries (3.1 YPC).

For the season, the Titans’ run defense ranks fourth in yards per carry (3.9), fourth in rush EPA allowed (-0.183), fourth in success rate (34.4%), and first in stuffed percentage (29.2%). Without a doubt, this is a top-five run defense in the league, led by a pair of elite run-defending tackles in Jeffery Simmons (80.3 run defense grade) and T’Vondre Sweat (71.4).

Player to watch: Penei Sewell. Sewell has always been a huge weapon in Detroit’s run game and this year is no different (88.6 PFF run blocking grade). If he’s lined up opposite Sebastian Joseph-Day (59.9 run defense grade) on the edge, expect the Lions to attack that right side of the defense.

Advantage: Lions +1. Had it not been for last week’s performance against the Vikings, I would’ve called this a draw. It’s a top-five unit vs. a top-five unit. But even though Detroit had a low success rate last week, they still created a couple of explosive plays against the Vikings’ top run defense. Again, I think the loss Ernest Jones (who led the team in run stops) could be felt here.

Titans pass offense (29th) vs. Lions pass defense (5th)

*Games in which Mason Rudolph predominantly played

The Titans passing attack may be the worst in football. They haven’t thrown for over 204 net passing yards in a single game, and they’ve only managed a passer rating above 75 twice. Will Levis has struggled to adapt to Tennessee’s new offense, and backup Mason Rudolph—who is expected to play this week—has struggled his entire career.

It turns out having a solid set of receivers doesn’t mean much if the quarterback can’t get them the ball. And fortunately for the Lions, that receiving corps may not look anything like it has in the past. DeAndre Hopkins was traded this week. Calvin Ridley is dealing with an injury that has caused him to miss the first two practices of the week. And Treylon Burks is on injured reserve.

Overall, the Titans rank 31st in yards per attempt (5.5), 32nd in passer rating (71.2), 30th in dropback EPA (-0.194), and 28th in dropback success rate (39.7%). Levis ranks last in the NFL in EPA per dropback (-0.42), and Rudolph isn’t much better at -0.17, which would rank him 27th if he had enough reps to qualify.

Their pass protection is also a bit of a problem. They’ve allowed 19 sacks (t-22nd most), rank 30th in pass block win rate, and 27th in PFF pass blocking grade. No starting offensive lineman ranks above 32nd at their respective position per PFF grade, but the biggest problem is at right tackle, where the Titans have gone back and forth in trying to find a starting-capable player.

The Lions pass defense has certainly improved from last year, but there are still several questions they have yet to answer.

The primary question now is how will they replace Aidan Hutchinson’s pass rushing efficiency. Last week, the Lions didn’t find many answers—although the Vikings have a strong offensive line. Despite a high blitz percentage, the Lions generated just 15 total pressures, per PFF. Isaac Ukwu and Josh Paschal—the Lions’ two primary edge defenders—combined for just two pressures.

Elsewhere, the Lions secondary has been very physical, which has yielded both positive and negative outcomes. Detroit ranks t-third in pass breakups and t-fifth in interceptions. They also rank t-first in defensive pass interference penalties (10), and t-second in defensive holding (six).

Overall, I question Detroit’s fifth DVOA ranking because most other stats suggest a closer-to-average unit. They’re 14th in yards per attempt (6.9), sixth in passer rating (79.0), eighth in dropback EPA (-0.037), and 18th in success rate (45.8%). What this tells me is the interceptions are doing some heavy lifting in some of these statistics. If that well goes dry, we could see the efficiency numbers drop.

That said, we can’t just ignore the interceptions. Safeties Brian Branch (four) and Kerby Joseph (four) are responsible for all eight team interceptions, but they’re both playing phenomenally. There’s no reason to believe that will just go away.

Player to watch: Branch. The man has forced four turnovers in the past two weeks. The Titans rank 31st in giveaways.

Advantage: Lions +3. The Titans’ passing offense has a case for being the worst in the league, and even though I have questions about Detroit’s ability to stop good passing offenses, that won’t be a problem this week.

Titans run offense (18th) vs. Lions run defense (13th)

If there’s anything the Titans do moderately well on offense, it’s running the football. They actually rank 18th in yards per carry (4.3), 19th in rush EPA (-0.095), and 20th in success rate (37.7%). So I’m even using the word “moderately” very loosely here.

Most of the success has come from the running backs (or quarterbacks) because the offensive line can’t seem to run block. As a team they rank 26th in run blocking PFF grade (55.5), 22nd in run block win rate, and 23rd in adjusted line yards.

Levis (106 rushing yards) provided some spark to the run game, but Rudolph (13) won’t bring that this week. Instead, most of the focus should be on Tony Pollard and his 400 yards and 4.3 YPC this season. Pollard is a tough guy to bring down, as he ranks fourth in rushing yards after contact per game (66.0).

The Lions’ run defense now has two pretty significant hiccups on their record, causing some doubt in their legitimacy. We know this team values stopping the run highly, but it’s certainly fair to wonder if the mounting injuries on the defensive line are starting to cost them. With no Aidan Hutchinson, Kyle Peko, Brodric Martin, Marcus Davenport, and Derrick Barnes—all solid run defenders—it may be hard for Detroit to keep it up. That said, the two backs they ceded a bunch of yards to (Kenneth Walker, Aaron Jones) are outstanding.

Overall, Detroit is 22nd in yards per carry allowed (4.6), ninth in rush EPA (-0.122), ninth in success rate (36.0%), and 18th in success rate.

I still think they’re an above average unit, but I do have questions as to whether they’re as good as they were last year.

Player to watch: Lions LBs. Detroit’s linebacking corps is coming off their best game yet, and if just getting Pollard to the ground is the key to this game, the Lions should be well-equipped to accomplish that. Detroit has PFF’s fourth-best team tackling grade, with Jack Campbell (69.3) and Alex Anzalone (66.9) both ranking in the top 20 in PFF tackling grade among linebackers (minimum 250 snaps).

Advantage: Lions +1. The Titans don’t do anything special in the running game, and with no quarterback scrambles to worry about, I’m not too concerned about this matchup.

Last week’s prediction

On Paper moved to 5-1 on the season and 4-2 against the spread with a pretty darn accurate 27-26 Lions prediction. Where I missed on was the Lions run defense having a tough performance and underestimating the Lions’ overall offense against Brian Flores. So my confidence in the Lions offense is way up this week, and my concern for Detroit’s run defense in a post-Hutchinson, post-Kyle Peko world is slightly raised.

In the comment section, we had a ton of very close predictions to the actual 31-29 score. Shout out to Treef!try, who not only missed the final score by just a single point (31-28), but also predicted a “long FG at the buzzer.” A 44-yard, game-winner with 15 seconds left is basically the same thing, so we may have to drown you just to see if you’re a witch.

But that somehow wasn’t the best score prediction, because we had our first perfect score prediction of the year, courtesy of Justan Oldfart. Here is your prize:

This week’s prediction:

The Lions come out with a significant +7.5 advantage, and they have the edge in literally every matchup. That said, I do think the Titans provide an interesting matchup for Detroit. Both teams strive to run the ball and stop the run, and do both relatively well. Theoretically, the Titans’ elite run defense could slow the Lions’ offense considerably, but with little pass rush and some injuries in the secondary, I’m not sure Tennessee could stop Jared Goff, even in third-and-long situations.

And while I’m still a little nervous about the long-term viability of Detroit’s defense in a post-Aidan Hutchinson world, the Titans are just not a team to worry about offensively. They rank 31st in yards per drive and 27th in points per drive.

I think this could be close early—the Titans have gotten out to hot starts in several games—but Detroit wins this one comfortably. Lions 27, Titans 13.