Week 7 Colts Offensive Rankings and Analysis: Who needs touchdowns?

Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous Colts game and analyzing the numbers to form a sort of “what happened” narrative, as well as comparing the Colts against all other teams in the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference Season Stats. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com, Football Outsiders, and the nflFastR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.

It was good day for Colts’ special teams. Matt Gay went 3 for 3 on field goals and Rigoberto Sanchez punted 7 times for 337 yards. That’s right, the Colts offense earned fewer yards (284) than their punter.

Indy had 6 three-and-outs on their way to a 59.3% Drive Success Rate, which is their lowest mark this year and ranks in the 12th percentile of 2024 games. Basically, unless the Colts were given the ball within 30 yards of the endzone, they couldn’t score a touchdown.

TEAM TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

I don’t know what’s worse, that the Colts only managed 16 points or that 11 other teams scored fewer. On a points per drive basis, the Colts were 19th on the week, which hides how truly inept they were. The 27th ranked DSR and 26th ranked EPA per play are a little more descriptive of what happened.

The Colts only managed 4.7 yards per scrimmage play and got zero 1st downs from penalties. That makes it hard to get first downs, which they didn’t (19th 3DC, 20th 1st/ply).

On the year, the offense drops 1 spot into a 3-way tie for 15th in PPD, which actually over-rates them in my opinion. Their season long DSR is 19th and that feels about right.

PASS TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

Anthony Richardson had a rough go of it, completing 41.7% of his passes and gaining just 5.6 yards per dropback (20th ny/d). All of those incompletions led to the 3rd worst passing success rate on the week (31% psr) and basically prevented him from moving the chains (26th 1st/d).

The good news is that he didn’t take any sacks, using his legs to scramble away from pressure. You would think all mobile QBs would inherently do that, but that isn’t the case and seeing AR do it is actually a bright spot in his other-wise dismal play.

On the year, I have Colts passing (including Flacco) at 13th in EPA/d, but only 25th in Passing Success Rate. That disparity shows the total reliance on big plays to support the pass game, which I believe is not supportable. So for now, the pass game can be dangerous, but long term its 25th place here we come . . . unless someone starts completing passes.

RUSH TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

Thank you run game for saving us. 121 total yards at 3.8 yards per carry may not seem like a lot, but within those yards, lie a touchdown and 10 first downs, including the 6th best 3rd down conversion rate of the week.

The botched snap/hand-off fumble absolutely tanked EPA (24th EPA/c), but the overall adjusted success rate was 9th best this week. That bumps the run game up 1 spot on the year to 13th best.

CONCLUSION & LOOK AHEAD

16 points is not good effort and is 6.6 points fewer than what Miami gave up on average against earlier opponents. I guess cleanse the palate and move on.

For all of their flaws — and there are a lot — this is till a better than average offense. If Richardson can take the next step and Jonathan Taylor can get healthy, they could be really good.

Hey everybody! Let’s play the Texans again. Houston’s defense ranks 18th in points per drive against. However, don’t be fooled by that as they give up the 6th lowest Drive Success Rate to opponents. They also yield the 3rd lowest yards per play, the 4th fewest explosive plays, the 3rd lowest conversion rate and the 2nd lowest play success rate. You know, your basic nightmare. This is a very good defense.

They hold opposing QBs to the 7th lowest EPA per dropback and the 9th lowest Passing Success Rate. They are very good at limiting yards (3rd lowest opponent ny/d) and first downs (9th lowest opponent 1st%).

The news gets worse for the ground game. Houston has the 3rd lowest opponent adj Rushing Success Rate, which incorporates the 7th lowest opponent yards per carry and the 6th lowest conversion rate against.

I’m not looking forward to this one.