Keys to victory: Can Sean McVay best Brian Flores on Thursday night?

Keys to victory for the Rams on Thursday Night Football against the Vikings

An argument could be made that the Los Angeles Rams season is on the line on Thursday Night when they take on the Minnesota Vikings. A loss would put the Rams at 0-4 in non-division conference games which would be a tough hole to climb out of at the end of the season. With Cooper Kupp returning to action, the Rams will hope that will be the boost they need to ignite a similar spark as last season.

Thursday night will also be first meeting between McVay and former Rams offensive coordinator Kevin O’Connell. However, the coaching matchup that most will be talking about is the one between McVay and Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores. This will be the third meeting between the two coaches with Flores responsible for two of the most important losses of the McVay era. Flores was the defensive coordinator for the Patriots in the Super Bowl in which the Rams scored just three points. He was also the head coach of the Dolphins in a game that started the beginning of the end for Jared Goff in Los Angeles.

Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell has essentially done what Sean McVay did in 2020 when hired Brandon Staley. With Brian Flores, O’Connell tasked him with creating the anti-Shanahan/McVay offense to which only he now has the answers. So far this season, the Vikings have wins against Shanahan offenses in the 49ers and Texans.

As Cody Alexander of the Match Quarters substack noted,

“Flores has proven he can take the best of the Shanahan/McVay system and win. His game plan against the Texans mitigated Houston’s use of pre-snap motion with two-high coverages (~64%) and utilized Hot blitzes on early downs to kill the run. It was a masterclass in attacking the Shanahan system.”

Thursday night is a big game for the Rams and everything points to the Vikings getting back on track after their first loss last week. Still, this is a game that the Rams were focused on coming out of the bye week. Here are this week’s keys to victory.

1. Communicate up-front on the offensive line

Due to the injuries on the offensive line, the Rams have had issues this season when it comes to picking up stunts and blitzes. A lot of the times this has been because a blitzing defender doesn’t get picked up or there has been a miscommunication on pass-blocking assignments. This season, Matthew Stafford is the 11th-worst quarterback against the blitz as he has a -0.24 EPA per dropback. While Stafford hasn’t been at his best, that also speaks to things like the offensive line that has struggled picking up blitzes.

The Vikings lead the NFL in blitz rate at 42.7 percent. You can be assured that Brian Flores is like a shark in the ocean that smells blood when it comes to the Rams offensive line. He’s going to throw the kitchen sink at them and test their ability to pass off defenders to pick up stunts and blitzing players. The Rams need to be able to communicate up-front so that everybody is on the same page.

2. Lean on Kyren Williams to get into manageable third downs

Flores has the Vikings playing like one of the best defenses in the NFL for a reason. They are allowing the fifth-fewest yards per carry in the run game and second-lowest EPA per rush. The Vikings also rank second in run defense success rate. That forces offenses into third and long situations which plays right into their hands to unleash an exotic pressure look. While the Vikings have statistically been good against the run, it is something that the Rams have to be able to commit to.

Running the ball is going to get the offense into more manageable third downs and avoid the obvious passing situations. This is something that the Lions did last week. Despite the Vikings allowing a rushing success rate of just 25.9 percent, Jahmyr Gibbs rushed for 116 yards on 15 carries. Back in Week 2, Jordan Mason had 100 yards on 20 carries for the 49ers. Simply put, this can’t be a game where the Rams abandon the run. The Rams are second in the NFL in rushing success rate of a reason and they need to lean into it.

3. Know the hot reads, and mix it up in the passing game

This is going to be a game in which it’s going to be important for McVay to have hot-reads built into the offense for Stafford. Brian Flores bringing the blitz is going to be the primary theme of this game. McVay needs to have hot reads for Stafford to get the ball out quickly. It wouldn’t be surprising to see McVay also call a lot of empty to make the defensive picture clearer for Stafford and force the Vikings to show their hand pre-snaps. This is what McVay tried to do back in 2020 against Flores and the Dolphins.

With that said, the Rams can’t just operate in a drop back passing game. The Rams need to be able to attack the boundary with some quick game. They did this a little bit last week with TuTu Atwell. Additionally, if the Rams can find some success in the run game, they’ll need to incorporate some play-action.

Not every team is going to be able to match the blueprint that the Lions provided to beat the Vikings. However, last week against the Lions, the Vikings allowed 0.33 EPA per play action pass which was the 10th worst for the week. On nine ‘quick game’ passes, Jared Goff was 9-for-9 with a touchdown with a 0.4 EPA per pass. The Rams need to be able to mix it up and then Stafford will have to be able to hit Cooper Kupp on the deep in-breakers.

4. Make Sam Darnold win the game

There’s no doubt that Sam Darnold has played very well this season. Despite the Vikings being 5-1, there is still some Darnold doubt and it’s hard not to wonder if he may come back down to what he’s been throughout his career. The Rams will have somewhat of a benefit in that they played against Darnold in Week 18 last year with the 49ers.

Darnold is still susceptible to making mistakes and it’s not something that the Rams need to try to force. If the Rams can get pressure, they can force the Vikings quarterback into those back-breaking errors. Darnold is one of the better quarterbacks against the blitz, but with no blitz he ranks 24th in EPA per dropback. To add to that, under pressure, Darnold ranks 28th in EPA per dropback. The Rams have to be able to get to Darnold with four. It’s also going to be crucial to limit Aaron Jones and the run game.

5. Limit explosive plays

The Vikings have had one of the more explosive offenses this season. They currently rank ninth in the NFL in explosive play rate on offense. Prior to the bye week, the Rams defense had been very susceptible to giving up explosive plays, leading to touchdowns for the opposing offense. Against the Green Bay Packers, Tucker Kraft had a big play down the sideline that led to a touchdown and then the week before against the Bears, it was De’Andre Swift in the run game.

It’s going to be easier said than done, but the Rams defense has to limit those types of plays. Jones has been very good in the run game and then the Vikings have some of the best play-makers in the passing game in Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. They are also expected to have TJ Hockenson back in the mix. The explosive plays are going to happen, but the Rams need to limit the damage on those plays.