NFC North Update

The Minnesota Vikings narrowly lost a big division game to the Detroit Lions on Sunday, but the race for the division crown in the toughest division in the NFL is still wide open. And the Vikings may yet be the best positioned to capture their second NFC North division crown in the Kevin O’Connell era.

Why, you ask?

Well, let’s dive into it.

The Vikings’ Path to the NFC North Crown

The Vikings early path to the NFC North crown has been an uphill one in terms of the level of competition faced so far. In fact, based on total DVOA, the Vikings have faced the fourth toughest schedule in the league so far. But despite the tough schedule, the Vikings have emerged from it with a 5-1 record and currently in second place in the division based on the 5-1 Lions having the head-to-head tie-breaker.

The Vikings have faced several teams with legitimate post-season aspirations in the 49ers, Texans, Packers, and Lions. All those teams are among the top seven in Super Bowl winning odds. But despite that tough schedule, the Vikings are not only tied for the second-best record in the league, they’re also third in total DVOA (+34.4%) and fourth in net point differential (+61).

Where the Vikings are right now

Breaking down how well the Vikings are doing defensively by DVOA, the Vikings are:

• 1st in defensive DVOA (-30.1%) by a lot | 2nd in EPA/play allowed (-0.22)
• 1st in pass defense DVOA (-30.9%) | 4th in EPA/pass allowed (-0.21)
• 1st in run defense DVOA (-28.2%) | 2nd in EPA/rush allowed (-0.26)

The Vikings have easily the best defense in the league by DVOA despite facing the 5th most difficult slate of opponents based on offensive DVOA.

The Vikings’ defense has faced the following pass offenses in DVOA and EPA/pass rankings:

• Giants: 23rd (+2.7%) | 25th (-0.17)
• 49ers: 6th (+32.0%) | 6th (+0.08)
• Texans: 19th (+14.1%) | 11th (0.00)
• Packers: 4th (+37.5%) | 9th (+0.01)
• Jets: 20th (+11.2%) | 17th (-0.07)
• Lions 8th (+31.5%) | 3rd (+0.19)

Apart from the Giants and Jets, that’s a pretty formidable slate of passing offenses the Vikings have faced so far, and yet remain the top pass defense in the league by a wide margin in DVOA.

Offensively, the Vikings are also:

• 15th in offensive DVOA (+2.6%) | 15th in EPA/play (-0.04)
• 9th in pass offense DVOA (+29.0%) | 13th in EPA/pass (-0.03)
• 18th in rush offense DVOA (-5.3%) | 15th in EPA/rush (-0.05)

The Vikings have managed the rankings in offensive DVOA and EPA/play despite facing the second toughest schedule by opponent defensive DVOA.

For example, here are the rankings in EPA/pass and pass defense DVOA the Vikings have faced so far this season:

• Giants: 11th (-0.13) | 20th in DVOA (+9.1%)
• 49ers: 9th (-0.16) | 3rd in DVOA (-16.6%)
• Texans: 3rd (-0.22) | 7th in DVOA (-11.1%)
• Packers: 5th (-0.21) | 11th in DVOA (-0.6%)
• Jets: 8th (-0.18) | 18th in DVOA (+7.7%)
• Lions: 6th (-0.19) | 5th in DVOA (-14.0%)

That’s a very tough slate of pass defenses the Vikings have faced so far.

The Vikings’ Future Schedule

But the Vikings’ future schedule looks quite a bit easier.

The Vikings currently have the 14th most difficult remaining schedule by total DVOA. But breaking down by offensive and defensive DVOA can be instructive as well:

• @Rams: Total: 22nd | 17th Offensive | 28th Defensive (24th pass, 27th rush)
• Colts: Total: 19th | 16th Offensive | 22nd Defensive (27th pass, 18th rush)
• @Jaguars: Total: 26th | 13th Offensive | 32nd Defensive (32nd pass, 11th rush)
• @Titans: Total: 27th | 27th Offensive | 11th Defensive (17th pass, 6th rush)
• @Bears: Total: 17th | 25th Offensive | 7th Defensive (2nd pass, 24th rush)
• Cardinals: Total: 21st | 14th Offensive | 26th Defensive (29th pass, 14th rush)
• Falcons: Total: 16th | 11th Offensive | 23rd Defensive (26th pass, 19th rush)
• Bears: Total: 17th | 25th Offensive | 7th Defensive (2nd pass, 24th rush)
• @Seahawks: Total: 12th | 9th Offensive | 15th Defensive (15th pass, 17th rush)
• Packers: Total: 8th | 5th Offensive | 13th Defensive (11th pass, 15th rush)
• @Lions: Total: 1st | 4th Offensive | 6th Defensive (5th pass, 13th rush)

Looking at the Vikings future schedule, outside of the NFC North teams, there really isn’t any playoff caliber teams on the list. Sure somebody has to win the NFC South, so maybe the Falcons make the playoffs (the Bucs just lost their two best receivers) but that isn’t saying much.

But if the Vikings’ offense has been weaker overall than the defense, look at the defensive matchups the Vikings face between now and mid-December- particularly pass defense rankings. The only real formidable challenge the Vikings face before the final two weeks of the season are the Bears- twice- over a nine-game stretch. And overall, the Vikings have a stretch of nine games against bottom half opponents in terms of DVOA before ending the regular season against the Packers and Lions. With any luck, the Vikings could wrap up the division crown before those last two games.

Lastly, from an injury standpoint the Vikings are set to get stronger. T.J. Hockenson will return to the active roster this week, along with Dalton Risner it seems. And Blake Cashman, who the Vikings missed in their loss to Detroit, will be back probably for the Colts game. There is always the probability of other injuries, but under the what is known aspect of injuries, the Vikings are set to get two- and maybe three- upgrades to starting positions back over the next two weeks.

The Lions Path to the NFC North Crown

The Lions are the current leader of the NFC North at 5-1 given their head-to-head tiebreaker over the Vikings and like the Vikings, are a leading Super Bowl contender in the NFC.

In DVOA terms, the Lions are second in total DVOA, including 4th offensively and 5th defensively through six games. They’ve achieved these top ranking despite facing the seventh-most difficult schedule measured by DVOA.

The Lions’ Future Schedule

However, the Lions’ future schedule looks a lot more uphill than the Vikings. In DVOA terms, the Lions face the fourth-most difficult schedule going forward. Here are the Lions’ opponents broken down by DVOA:

• Titans: Total: 27th | 27th Offensive | 11th Defensive
• @Packers: Total: 8th | 5th Offensive | 12th Defensive
• @Texans: Total: 7th | 6th Offensive | 2nd Defensive
• Jaguars: Total: 26th | 14th Offensive | 32nd Defensive
• @Colts: Total: 19th | 16th Offensive | 22nd Defensive
• Bears: Total: 17th | 25th Offensive | 7th Defensive
• Packers: Total: 8th | 5th Offensive | 12th Defensive
• Bills: Total: Total: 5th | 2nd Offensive | 9th Defensive
• @Bears: Total: 17th | 25th Offensive | 7th Defensive
• @49ers: Total: 9th | 9th Offensive | 6th Defensive
• Vikings: Total: 3rd | 15th Offensive | 1st Defensive

Overall, the Lions face six teams currently in the top ten in DVOA, whereas the Vikings only face two the rest of the regular season. And if you consider the Bears a tough division opponent- and they should be considered so even if their offense isn’t as good as some imagined preseason- that leaves only three relatively easy games among their remaining eleven.

The other thing is that Lions’ defensive rankings are based largely on having Aiden Hutchinson in the lineup (he was out for just one game so far), which won’t be the case going forward. Perhaps the Lions may trade for a better replacement, but clearly the loss of Hutchinson- their best player defensively- will hurt the Lions’ defense the rest of the season.

At the end of the day, if the Lions drop two more games than the Vikings before they meet at the end of the regular season, which could happen given the difference in remaining schedules, the division title could be the Vikings’ ahead of their rematch. So, the Lions’ path to the division crown is to keep up with the Vikings but with a more difficult schedule the rest of the way.

The Packers Path to the NFC North Crown

The Vikings and Lions may be the favorites to win the division, but it is still very much a four-team race right now, which includes the Packers. Green Bay is right on the heels of both the Vikings and Lions at 5-2- a half-game behind the Lions and a game behind the Vikings given the Vikings’ have the head-to-head tiebreaker.

And in DVOA terms, the Packers are not far behind the Lions and Vikings as well, ranking 8th in total DVOA, including 5th offensively and 12th defensively. The Packers haven’t had quite as tough a schedule as the Vikings and Lions so far, however. They’ve faced the twelfth most difficult schedule so far. But, like the Lions, they have a tough remaining schedule.

The Packers Future Schedule

• @Jaguars: Total: 26th | 14th Offensive | 32nd Defensive
• Lions: Total: 1st | 4th Offensive | 6th Defensive
• @Bears: Total: 17th | 25th Offensive | 7th Defensive
• 49ers: Total: 9th | 9th Offensive | 6th Defensive
• Dolphins: Total: 29th | 31st Offensive | 25th Defensive
• @Lions: Total: 1st | 4th Offensive | 6th Defensive
• @Seahawks: Total: 12th | 9th Offensive | 15th Defensive
• Saints: Total: 21st | 23rd Offensive | 19th Defensive
• @Vikings: Total: 3rd | 15th Offensive | 1st Defensive
• Bears: Total: 17th | 25th Offensive | 7th Defensive

The Packers upcoming game at Jacksonville may be the easiest game left on their schedule. They have four top ten total DVOA opponents in their remaining ten games, and the Bears are likely to be two tough games as well. Both the Dolphins and Saints have been dealing with injuries at quarterback and in other spots as well but will likely see those players return by the time the Packers play them. That could make those two games more challenging as well.

The Packers have their bye-week in-between the upcoming Lions and Bears games.

Lastly, the Packers have been without defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt the past couple games but should get him back in the not-too-distant future.

Overall, however, the Packers also need to keep pace with the Vikings despite a tougher schedule, and hope to split the series when they travel to US Bank stadium at the end of December- a game likely to be flexed into prime time. They also need to keep pace with the Lions and sweep that series to come out on top. As close as the Packers are behind the Lions and Vikings, there isn’t a lot of margin for error- unless the Vikings and Lions provide it.

Chicago Bears Path to the NFC North Crown

The Bears are a bit of a surprise at 4-2 after six games, but also a bit of a surprise that an offense of #1 pick Caleb Williams, #9 pick Rome Odunze, D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, and D’Andre Swift has been struggling as much as it has.

The Bears are currently ranked 17th in total DVOA, including 25th in offensive DVOA and 7th in defensive DVOA. They’ve been helped to achieve these rankings by having the easiest schedule in the league so far.

But that’s about to change.

The Bears Future Schedule

While the Bears had the easiest schedule measured by DVOA so far, they have the toughest future schedule by the same measure. Having six games remaining with top DVOA division rivals doesn’t help, but the Bears have some other tough opponents as well. Here is the breakdown of the Bears’ remaining schedule with DVOA rankings:

• @Commanders: Total: 6th | 3rd Offensive | 23rd Defensive
• @Cardinals: Total: 21st | 14th Offensive | 26th Defensive
• Patriots: Total: 30th | 30th Offensive | 30th Defensive
• Packers: Total: 8th | 5th Offensive | 12th Defensive
• Vikings: Total: 3rd | 15th Offensive | 1st Defensive
• @Lions: Total: 1st | 4th Offensive | 6th Defensive
• @49ers: Total: 9th | 9th Offensive | 6th Defensive
• @Vikings: Total: 3rd | 15th Offensive | 1st Defensive
• Lions: Total: 1st | 4th Offensive | 6th Defensive
• Seahawks: Total: 12th | 9th Offensive | 15th Defensive
• @Packers: Total: 8th | 5th Offensive | 12th Defensive

The Bears have a tough game upcoming against the Commanders and Jayden Daniels, then a couple easier games against the Cardinals and Patriots. But then things get real for the Bears. The last eight games are an absolute nightmare without a break (the Bears had their bye-week this past weekend). The worst team by DVOA they face the last eight weeks are the 12th ranked Seahawks. The rest are their six division games and at the 49ers.

Absolutely brutal.

So, while the Bears are just behind the division leaders at 4-2, their path to the division crown goes up Mount Everest in terms of the difficulty of their remaining schedule by DVOA. The Bears have a good defense, but offensively they’ve struggled outside of the weakest defenses in the league in Jacksonville and Carolina. And there won’t be any of those the last two months of their schedule.

So, while the Bears are most definitely in the division race currently, it wouldn’t be surprising if this is the closest they get to the top.

Bottom Line

The Vikings are a tie-breaker out of first place in the division with their loss to the Lions on Sunday, but they also have the easiest remaining schedule in the division. It looks particularly favorable over the next two months, with some relatively weak defenses that could allow the Vikings’ offense to get humming while the defense should continue to wreck havoc on young quarterbacks and more flawed offenses than they’ve faced in the past.

The Lions have a tougher schedule than the Vikings, but have the team to handle it for the most part. The loss of Aiden Hutchinson could take a toll over time for the Lions, and if the Vikings take advantage of a softer schedule, that won’t leave the Lions much margin for error.

The Packers remain a legitimate contender for the division title, but having lost two including to the Vikings, and with a tough remaining schedule, they don’t have much room for error either. Ideally for the Vikings they split with the Lions- or even sweeping them wouldn’t be terrible. But if the Packers stay healthy and win most of their remaining division games, they could very well contend for the division crown. But it’s a tougher road than for the Vikings and Lions.

The Bears’ schedule has been a path down a valley but will soon turn sharply upward and it will be a considerable feat for the Bears to finish near .500 given their remaining schedule, despite their 4-2 start. They continue on the right trajectory longer term, but I don’t think they’ll have a path to win the division by early December.

Betting lines on DraftKings for the NFC North division winner are currently:

• Lions +130
• Vikings +175
• Packers +380
• Bears +1200

It’s a long season and things change, DVOA changes, injuries happen, and all the rest. But the Vikings remain in arguably the best position to win the division given future strength of schedule, despite their narrow loss to the Lions last weekend.

In any case, whichever team wins the NFC North this season, it wouldn’t be surprising if two other NFC North made the playoffs as wildcards, which would lead, most likely, to one or two more games between NFC North teams in the postseason.

Stay tuned.

Follow me on X @wludford

Poll

Which team will win the NFC North, toughest division in the NFL, this season?

• 0%

  Bears

  (0 votes)

• 51%

  Lions

  (19 votes)

• 5%

  Packers

  (2 votes)

• 43%

  Vikings

  (16 votes)

37 votes total

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