One more play…among several opportunities
The Minnesota Vikings suffered their first loss of the season against the Detroit Lions– a narrow one 31-29. It was a game where both teams overcame double-digit deficits. It was also the first time the Vikings have lost when even or ahead in takeaways in the Kevin O’Connell era. Statistically, the box score stats were close across the board, with no team having a big advantage in any category.
The difference in the game was one play. If the Vikings make one more play, they win narrowly instead of losing narrowly. And there were a lot of opportunities to make that one more play. Let’s look at them.
4th Quarter, 2:46 Remaining, Min 28, 3rd and Four
On the Vikings second-to-last drive of the game, they had a third-and-four. Sam Darnold rolls right, but throws high to Justin Jefferson. A few inches lower and it’s a completion for a first down, extending the drive and allowing the Vikings to run down the clock and potentially ice the game.
Six inches lower and the Vikings convert this late third down and potentially ice the game. pic.twitter.com/cQHmliZuAQ
— Warren Ludford (@wludford) October 20, 2024
3rd Quarter, 7:48 Remaining, 2nd & 15, MIN 47
Lions have the ball at midfield, go shotgun and Jonathan Greenard gets the edge on Taylor Decker and goes for a back door strip of Goff. He gets his hand on Goff’s arm, but unable to hit the ball out or disrupt Goff. Had he done so, could’ve been a turnover or drive killer.
Greenard so close to a strip here. Potential game changing play. pic.twitter.com/xVem2aKQf3
— Warren Ludford (@wludford) October 20, 2024
2nd Quarter, 8:35 Remaining, 2nd & 11, MIN 35
Vikings send seven, Lions motion wide receiver to get the extra blocker to pick it up, but Vikings blow the coverage. Metellus lets St. Brown go, but Cam Bynum not in position to pick him up. Byron Murphy Jr. pursues late, but to no avail. Eliminating this mistake may have taken another Lions’ TD off the board and potentially led to a field goal rather than a touchdown.
Blown coverage on this Lions TD. Metellus lets St. Brown go, Bynum on opposite side, Murphy pursues late. pic.twitter.com/2MMyd7JVnL
— Warren Ludford (@wludford) October 21, 2024
2nd Quarter, 11:35 Remaining, 3rd & 9, MIN 49
Vikings offense facing third and long. Sam Darnold has time to throw, but his on the throw to Jalen Nailor allows Brian Branch to make a play to break it up. Had Darnold led Nailor a bit, could’ve converted the third down and got at least a field goal as they would’ve been at the Lions’ 40 yard line.
A little better ball placement here from Darnold- should’ve led him a bit- but the pass was a little behind Nailor allowing Branch to make a nice breakup. pic.twitter.com/aeLfjXXnvI
— Warren Ludford (@wludford) October 21, 2024
2nd Quarter, 13:42 Remaining, 1st &10, MIN 45
Lions have the ball and were driving just inside Vikings territory. They get an explosive TD run here from Jhamyr Gibbs. Josh Metellus isn’t able to get off the block by St. Brown, but looks like he was held. Harrison Phillips and Byron Murphy might also have been held. And Cam Bynum with a poor tackle attempt.
Josh Mettelus might have gotten off this block by St. Brown better, but also possible holding there, also on Harrison Phillips, and Byron Murphy. A holding penalty or better play wipes out the Lions only explosive play at that point, and potentially backs them up to 1st & 20. pic.twitter.com/jCoPf5NALv
— Warren Ludford (@wludford) October 21, 2024
2nd Quarter, 5:47 Remaining, 2nd & 8, DET 43
The Vikings were driving here in Lions territory. Darnold play-actions to Aaron Jones who runs a flat route and is wide open. Darnold has all day to throw but decides to target Jordan Addison down the field, not seeing Brian Branch who makes an easy interception. A throw to Jones would’ve resulted in an easy first down and potentially a long gain or touchdown if he outruns the nearest defender down the sideline.
Aaron Jones wide open on Darnold INT play. Easy first down plus. Not sure what Darnold saw on throw to Addison, but definitely not Brian Branch. pic.twitter.com/QYnWeBaM7B
— Warren Ludford (@wludford) October 21, 2024
Bottom Line
The Vikings also made a lot of plays to go up 10-0 early and to come back twice from down 11 points to take the lead. There other mistakes to clean up too, namely the penalties. And if the Lions don’t recover both of Goff’s fumbles, there would have been more opportunities for the Vikings to score. But if the Vikings make one more play, they win the game. If they make a few more from the opportunities above, they might’ve won by double digits.
It’s disappointing they weren’t able to come away with the win, which would’ve given them a commanding lead in the division, but it was far from a collapse or harbinger of a declining performance. It was a very winnable game against arguably their top competition in the postseason. The division crown is still very much in reach, especially with the more difficult part of the schedule in the rear view mirror and an easier stretch between now and early December. and the Lions with a couple tough road games at Green Bay and Houston coming up.
It’s a long season and the Vikings remain in good position for the division crown, top seed, and beyond.
Stay tuned.
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