The Honolulu Blueprint: 4 keys to a Lions Week 7 victory over the Vikings

The Detroit Lions (4-1) are on the road in Week 7, traveling to the twin cities to take on the Minnesota Vikings (5-0), hoping to seize control of the NFC North.

“What a test we’re going to have this week,” coach Dan Campbell said on Wednesday. “These guys are playing really good football. 5-and-0, at their place, 1-0 in the division for these guys, active opportunistic defense, ball hawks, 11 takeaways, they’re just playing at a high level.”

If the Lions want to get an early lead in the division, they’ll need to follow the keys to victory laid out in this week’s Honolulu Blueprint.

Vikings base schemes

Typically in this section, we break down the Lions’ opponent’s base schemes, but we decided to expand our view in a separate piece: Lions Week 7 Preview: Breaking down Vikings’ offensive and defensive schemes.

So, be sure to check it out for more context related to this week’s keys to victory.

Key 1: Continue to establish the run early

The Lions’ rushing attack has been very effective in 2024. They establish themselves on the ground early and it becomes a weapon they can lean on at any point during the game. They average 157.8 yards per game (fourth in the NFL), are second in DVOA in rushing offense efficiency, and have a 49.7% rushing success rate per NextGenStats, the third-highest mark in the NFL since 2016.

The Vikings currently have the No. 1 DVOA rushing defense in the NFL and are allowing opponents to rush for just 67.2 yards per game—second-best in the NFL, behind Baltimore (59 ypg) and one spot ahead of Detroit (83.2 ypg).

What’s surprising about this success against the run is that Minnesota leans on six defensive backs roughly 85% of the time, typically keep two defensive backs deep 65% of the time, and stack the box less than 10% of the time.

So how do they accomplish this?

First, as we discussed in our review of the Vikings’ schemes, the Vikings will overload the line of scrimmage and disguise their intentions. While they typically have seven or eight defenders drop into coverage post-snap, by keeping defenders close pre-snap, they put themselves in position to stop the run early in plays.

Secondly, the Vikings have had incredible early success in games.

• vs. Giants, they got a 21-3 lead, winning 28-6
• vs. 49ers, they won the turnover battle (more on that in a bit)
• vs. Texans, 21-0 lead and won 34-7
• vs. Packers, it was a 28-0 lead before holding off a comeback and winning 31-29
• vs. Jets 17-0 lead, but only won 23-17 and needed an interception to close it out

With three-score (17 or more point) leads in four of their five games, Vikings opponents were forced to put the ball in the air and move away from the run.

The way to counter this is for the Lions to stay aggressive and establish themselves on the ground early, controlling the clock and the score. If they can find success, as they have all year, this will put their offense in a spot to keep the Vikings’ defense guessing on whether Detroit is running or passing the ball.

Key 2: Goff, offensive line need preparation and patience

While the Vikings’ defensive scheme is purposely complex pre-snap, they do have tendencies and will show you their intentions quickly post-snap. With the Lions’ experience facing this defense—this will be the third time the Lions have faced the Vikings in the past 10 months—they can find success through the air if they give Jared Goff enough time in the pocket to assess the situation.

Finding success on the ground is step one, while step two will come down to offensive line communication and execution, which is something the Lions are hoping they can accomplish through film preparation.

“We saw it twice last year (and) the core of this unit and the thought behind it is still there, still very much there,” coach Dan Campbell said earlier this week. “There’s a couple of wrinkles and the personnel is better, they have upgraded, but I think seeing this and game-planning for it and calling the game against it and making sure you have an answer for everything, that’s what you want.

“You need to have an answer, and as long as you give Goff an answer—which in turn gives this offense an answer—then you’ll be fine, you’ve got a chance. […] And so, we’ve got the answers, Ben [Johnson]’s got the answers, it’s set up, it’s about execution. But yeah, here we go man, Ben, it’s his third year calling the offense and then, like I say, third year going against this style, so it is big, and I think it gives us an advantage.”

To try and offset their predictability, the Vikings will frequently blitz to force offenses to make quick decisions. Currently, the Vikings are blitzing 41.1% of the time (down from 50+% last season) which is second in the NFL. They blitz on nearly half of early downs, hoping to put offenses in third-and-long, and then back off on third down and clog throwing lanes.

Despite the narrative that Goff struggles under pressure, his stats say otherwise in 2024. Per NextGenStats, Goff is averaging a league-high 10.7 yards per attempt when under pressure and has only been sacked on 17.6% of his pressures, the 12th-lowest rate in the NFL.

This brings us back to my No. 1 key to victory from my 2023 Honolulu Blueprints: Goff will need to attack the blitz.

When the Vikings blitz, they tend to keep two defensive backs high (over 56% of blitzes) in split-zone coverage, which opens areas underneath for slot merchants All-Pro wide receivers like Amon-Ra St. Brown, who can uncover quickly and settle down into zone coverage. Last season, per NextGenStats, when Goff faced a split-safety coverage blitz from the Vikings, he completed seven of nine passes for 154 yards and a touchdown (17.1 YPA).

But will the Vikings keep two-high safeties vs. the Lions? They’ll almost have to lean this way for one main reason: Jamo.

Jameson Williams’ speed is electric, he’s been a favorite of Goff this season, leads the team in receiving yards, and the Vikings don’t have the defensive personnel to match up with him one-on-one. Stephon Gilmore is 34 years old and lacks the speed he once possessed, while Byron Murphy and Josh Metellus (both with 4.55 speed) will need help over the top from safeties.

In previous seasons, Williams needed time to beat coverage and get deep, but this season, he’s increased his route effectiveness and is getting open quickly and presenting a reliable target for Goff. When teams have pressured Goff this season, he has looked Williams’ way 11 times, completing eight of those passes for 202 yards and a touchdown.

Furthermore, the Vikings run Cover-0 on 10.5% of their defensive plays (most in the NFL). And while they have only given up one explosive play in this coverage, it’s worth noting that Goff’s answer to this coverage is also to turn to Williams. Teams have only tested Goff with this coverage five times this season, but he has gone three of four (one sack) for 76 yards and two touchdowns.

Goff is well suited with answers to some of the Vikings’ best traits, but he’ll need to recognize them when they happen and have the time to execute his game plan.

“That’s really the focus here, keep your composure, communicate and you’ve got to battle,” Campbell concluded.

Key 3: Dial-up interior pressure with Alim McNeill

While the Lions will always prioritize stopping the run, they’ll still need to find ways to pressure Vikings’ quarterback Sam Darnold. And with the loss of Aidan Hutchinson, along with the Vikings having solid bookended offensive tackles, that likely means the Lions will turn to their interior defensive line to create opportunities.

In 2024, Alim McNeill—fresh off a new contract extension—has accounted for 14 pressures on 144 pass rushers (9.7% success rate), per NextGenStats. But when the Lions lost Hutchinson during the Cowboys game, McNeill stepped up and registered seven pressures, including four pressures on nine one-on-one matchups with All-Pro Zach Martin.

Tasked with blocking McNeill this week will be Vikings right guard Ed Ingram (29.4 pass protection grade from PFF) and center Garrett Bradbury (50.1). Together, the pair have allowed 30 of the team’s 53 pressures.

Darnold has been sacked 15 times in 2024, and while his interior pass blocking has been suspect, he also holds onto the ball longer than most quarterbacks. On average, he holds the ball for 3.13 seconds (second-longest in the NFL) as he is consistently looking downfield for open targets. Per NextGenStats, he holds the ball for at least 2.5 seconds on 72% of his dropbacks, the highest rate in the NFL.

If the Lions can play contain with the EDGE players and create pressure up the middle, with McNeill and/or creative stunting, the Lions should see a large benefit.

Key 4: Win the turnover battle

Generating turnovers has been a huge part of the Vikings’ defensive success. Not only are they forcing 2.6 turnovers a game (second most in the NFL) but they’re getting them at timely junctures.

“It’s huge and a number of these games it’s—well, certainly the Green Bay game early—but it’s, you score, get a stop, you score, they turn the ball over, you score, and all of a sudden you’re 21-0,” Campbell said of the Vikings’ success on offense combined with timely turnovers from their defense. “Man, they’re massive errors and they’re getting up by two scores, three scores in some cases, early, and about the time you fight your way back, then they pull away again. So, it’s really never been close, and it is, the turnover ratio is going to be ginormous.”

While the Vikings’ defense has been superb in generating turnovers, the offense has not been as sharp, turning the ball over 1.8 times per game. Darnold’s 0.8 interceptions per game is around the league average, while their 1.0 fumbles lost (1.8 fumbles per game) is worst in the NFL.

Darnold has struggled vs. man coverage this season and the Lions run the third most man coverage (43%) in the NFL. Last week, they ran man coverage 50% of the time against the Cowboys and limited Dak Prescott to five of 17 for 86 yards and two interceptions against this coverage.

The Lions’ safeties have been a massive key to their success on turnovers and together Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph have combined to force eight of the Lions’ 10 turnovers.

While the Vikings’ 2.6 turnovers per game are impressive, the Lions are just behind them, forcing 2.0 turnovers per game, fourth best in the NFL. And while the Vikings are giving up 1.8 turnovers a game, the Lions are giving up just 0.8 turnovers on offense per game. That breaks down to the Vikings having a +0.8 in takeaways (seventh best in the NFL) ratio, while the Lions are generating a +1.2 (fourth best) ratio.

“Yeah, that’s typically going to be the difference in the game and those guys have been thriving off of it,” Goff said about takeaways. “So yeah, we’ve got to do a good job taking care of it and, like I said, they are extremely ball-aware, they’re trying to take it away, you can tell, and we’ve got to be even more aware this week.”