Fantasy Football ‘24: Week 7 Fantasy preview—start/sit, and more

Welcome to Week 7, fantasy footballers. I’ll say it for the third straight week—offense is back! The scoring drought of the first couple of weeks of the season is a distant memory, unless you’re the Cleveland Brown(out)s. Nine of the 28 teams in action in Week 7 broke 30 points, and only two teams (the Giants and Cowboys) scored fewer than 13. Obviously, one week is just one week, but there are larger trends. Passing proliferated in the 2000s and 2010s, and NFL scoring peaked in 2020, at an average of 24.8 points per team, per game. Scoring then dropped in each of the next three seasons, which many analysts attributed in large part to the prevalence of teams playing two safeties high. But so far in 2024, the average has climbed up to 22.5, which is more than half a point higher than either of the last two seasons. Most of that ascent occurred in the last few weeks. Old-school purists might scoff, but those of us who play fantasy football and watch NFL Red Zone are thrilled to see it.

Fantasy scoring generally rises and falls with the tide of NFL scoring. That was true this week, unless you started Mike Evans, who managed a lousy 4.4 points (Half PPR) while his team erupted for 51 against the Saints. The good news? Evans was my Fade of the Week. More on that later. Anyway, pop quiz time: What do Gabe Davis, Sean Tucker, and Romeo Doubs have in common? I’ll tell you. They all scored two TDs on Sunday, and in all likelihood, nobody reading this column started any of them. In fact, I’d be surprised if any of them were even rostered in Week 6, other than maybe Doubs in deeper leagues. This is just a reminder that random things happen each week in the NFL that nobody can predict. Not even me…

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Stats of the Week:

Nico Collins still leads the NFL in receiving yards, despite not playing the final three quarters of Week 5, or at all in Week 6.

30-year-old Derrick Henry leads the NFL in these major rushing categories: Attempts, yards, touchdowns, first downs, longest run, and stiff-arms (OK, I made that last one up). His 5.9 yards-per-carry average is the highest of his career by half a yard. Canton will be calling the King’s name one day.

On Sunday, Henry surpassed 10,000 rushing yards for his career, becoming the 31^st running back to hit that threshold. Henry is in his ninth season, and every running back ahead of him on the list played at least 10 seasons, other than Jim Brown (nine).

Lamar Jackson is now 21-1 vs. NFC teams as a starter.

The four NFC North teams are the top four teams in the NFL in point differential. After six weeks, all four teams have at least four wins. It’s the first time that’s happened in any division since the NFL went to the current eight-division format in 2002. The 2024 NFC Norris (as Chris Berman used to call it) has a shot to be the first-ever to put all four of its teams into the playoffs.

Drake Maye threw more TD passes (three) in his lone start than Jacoby Brissett (two) threw in five starts.

After throwing the most INTs (34) across the past two seasons, Josh Allen has not thrown a pick this season (sorry for the jinx, folks).

Against Tampa, the Saints scored 27 points in the second quarter, and zero points in the other three quarters.

Guffaws of the Week:

The Cowboys have trailed by at least 21 points in all three of their home games, all losses. They also trailed by more than that margin in their blowout playoff loss to Green Bay in January, so it’s four in a row. Detroit’s 47-9 throttling of the Cowboys on Sunday was Dallas’s worst-ever home loss, and it came on Jerry Jones’s 82nd birthday.

The Giants and Jets share a stadium, and hosted prime time games on Sunday and Monday. The similarities don’t stop there. Both teams missed two FGs in the second half, in losses that were close until the end.

The Browns have scored between 13 and 18 points in all six of their games this season. Hey, at least they’re consistent. Sports bettors, take note.

Browns’ third down efficiency watch: I’ve decided to make this a running feature, unless and until the team benches Deshaun Watson. Cleveland went 3-for-12 on third downs against the Eagles, which believe it or not improved their third down conversion rate for the season, to 19.2%. No team has ever finished a season with a third down conversion rate below 24% (tracking began in 1991).

Week 7, here we go!

Bye Weeks: CHI, DAL

Week 7 Rides, Fades and Sleepers

For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else: The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, in many cases, as compared to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise, and as a general rule, always start your studs. I’ll rarely list the most obvious names at a position as “Rides” because those players are matchup-proof and are almost always expected to have strong performances, plus you don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, or Justin Jefferson. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too. Half PPR scoring and Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are used for the column.

Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week. The rules are simple. The Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade of the Week can’t be someone who almost nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper of the Week must be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.

The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers had another very strong showing in Week 6, extending what’s been a very good roll of late. It’s a small sample but Ride of the Week Bijan Robinson found the end zone twice and I already told you how Fade of the Week Mike Evans flamed out. Nobody hits them all, but my correct calls significantly outnumbered my bad ones. You can check my work here: Week 6 Fantasy preview.

Ride of the Week:

Baker Mayfield (vs. BAL). Mayfield is currently the QB2 on the season (let that sink in), and he continues to produce impressive weekly totals. The Ravens slowed down Jayden Daniels last week, but they’ll have their hands full with Tampa’s outstanding passing game. Baltimore has the NFL’s 32nd-ranked pass defense (most passing yards allowed) and they’ve also allowed the second most Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG) to opposing quarterbacks. You can’t run on them, but you sure can throw on them, and Baker will do just that. He’s ranked just inside the Top-10 QBs this week and I think that’s low for him.

Fade of the Week:

George Pickens (vs. NYJ). Maybe the switch to Russell Wilson will benefit Pickens, as Russ has always had a good deep ball. The Pickens body language (and effort) has been terrible at times, and he’s been a major disappointment so far this season. He’s also always been big-play dependent, and the Steelers haven’t done a lot of scoring through the air. I don’t see him getting on track against the Jets, who continue to be a very difficult passing game matchup. They’ve allowed the fourth fewest FPPG to opposing WRs, and just three TD catches to the position in six games.

Sleeper of the Week:

Christian Watson (vs. HOU). I’m puzzled by his ranking of WR39 this week, with Dontayvion Wicks questionable and Jordan Love being so prolific so far this season. In both full games that he and Love have played together, Watson has scored, and he led the NFL in red zone targets per game last season. Watson is a strong play this week against a Texans’ defense that has allowed the 10th-most FPPG to opposing wide receivers, and the third most TD catches to the position (nine).

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Quarterback:

Elite options this week – Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Jordan Love, Joe Burrow, and Jayden Daniels;

Rides:

Sam Darnold (vs. DET). I faded Darnold against the Jets back in Week 5 and it was the right call, but I think he’ll be a good start coming out of the Bye, in a game where the Vikings will need to throw to keep up with Detroit. Detroit’s defense is bit like Baltimore’s – very tough to run on, which results in more passing attempt against them.

Kirk Cousins (vs. SEA). Seattle got diced up by Daniel Jones (22 fantasy points) and Brock Purdy (24) in their last two games, and after playing three games in 11 days their beleaguered defense has to travel across the country to face an Atlanta team that can beat you in multiple ways. After their early run against very low-level quarterbacks and offenses, Seattle’s defense has been exposed. I like Cousins to put up some good numbers this week, against a bottom-10 pass defense.

Sleepers:

Drake Maye (@JAC, London). This is mostly about the matchup, but I’ve been patiently waiting for Maye to show his stuff and saw enough from him in his debut to warrant this call. I’m not alone, as Maye is ranked just outside the Top-15 quarterbacks this week. He’s got plenty of talent and the Patriots won’t be scared to open things up and take shots. The Jaguars are a team in disarray and their defense has allowed the most FPPG and passing TDs (14) to opposing QBs, and the second most passing yards. They’ve also picked off just one pass. They’re a gift, so why not accept it? Just watch Maye’s status, as he’s dealing with some sort of knee injury.

Matthew Stafford (vs. LV). I’m hesitant, because I’ve called Stafford’s number as a sleeper more than once already this season and he hasn’t delivered. It sounds like he’ll have Cooper Kupp back this week, which is excellent news. The Raiders are another team that’s dealing with major dysfunction. The Rams are rested and I think they’ll play well at home, in a game they desperately need if they’re going to have any shot of returning to the playoffs.

Andy Dalton (@WAS). The Commanders were the NFL’s worst pass defense in 2023, and that trend carried over to the start of 2024. They’ve been better the past three weeks, but it’s still a vulnerable defense and I think Dalton will put up points, in a game where his team will likely be trailing throughout. Washington has allowed the third-most FPPG to opposing QBs, and the second most TD passes (12).

Other QBs ranked outside the Top-15 this week that I think can be started if needed include Justin Herbert (@ ARI) and Trevor Lawrence (vs. NE, London).

Fades:

Kyler Murray (vs. LAC). Kyler has been puzzling so far this season, with two Top-10 outings and four efforts where he fell outside the Top-15 quarterbacks. He isn’t running as much as you’d expect, and the Cardinals have been less explosive than advertised. Marvin Harrison might miss this contest, and while he hasn’t been a big producer, he helps keep defenses honest. A year after being one of the worst pass defenses in the league, the Chargers are vastly improved, and they’ve allowed the sixth fewest FPPG to opposing QBs, and just five TD passes. They’ve also allowed the fewest points in the NFL and have held every opponent to 20 points or less. Murray is in the Top 12 for the week and I have him lower.

Aaron Rodgers (@PIT). I’m assuming Davante Adams will play, with his hamstring suddenly 100% better. Praise be, it’s a medical miracle! Still, I don’t like how Rodgers has looked and I don’t like this matchup against an aggressive defense that will make him rush throws. The Steelers have allowed the fifth-fewest FPPG to opposing quarterbacks.

Jared Goff (@MIN). Everything the Lions did worked last week in Dallas, but it will be tougher sledding at the Vikings, who are second in the NFL in sacks per game, and first in INTs. I think he’ll be OK if you need him, but road Jared is at best a borderline QB1 play this week.

Colts’ QBs (vs. MIA). I don’t know who will be starting for Indianapolis this week, but if they’re like other teams, they’ll pound the ball against the Dolphins and pass it sparingly. Miami has allowed the fewest FPPG to opposing quarterbacks, and a league-low three passing TDs. They haven’t faced many elite throwers or receiver groups, however, so they’re a bit untested.

Others: For those who play Superflex, these are some lower-ranked QB options that you could be considering, but that I’d avoid: Spencer Rattler (vs. DEN), Russell Wilson vs. NYJ), Deshaun Watson (vs. CIN), and Will Levis (@BUF).

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Running back:

Elite options this week – Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, and Kyren Williams; the analysis starts below them.

Rides:

Bijan Robinson (vs. SEA). The only concern with Bijan each week is how many touches he’ll get. Its’ a shared backfield with Tyler Allgeier, who led the team in carries last week. Still, I’ll ride Bijan again this week, as it’s a very favorable matchup. The Seahawks have gotten run over in the last few weeks, and only the Cardinals have allowed more rushing yards to running backs on the season.

J.K. Dobbins (@ARI). I’m trying to figure out why Dobbins is ranked outside the Top-10 running backs this week. He’s getting good usage, and the matchup is very favorable. Arizona has allowed the most rushing yards and sixth most FPPG to opposing RBs, and this feels like it’ll be yet another grind-it-out kind of game for Jim Harbaugh’s team.

Tony Pollard (@BUF). I’ll ride Pollard again this week, after the Ride call on him hit in Week 6. Tyjae Spears is likely to miss this contest, so Pollard should be the clear leader of the backfield. The Bills have struggled vs. the run, allowing the third most FPPG to running backs. They’ve especially had problems with pass-catching backs, and that’s something Pollard does well. They’ve allowed the most catches, receiving yards, and receiving TDs (three) to opposing running backs.

Other RBs ranked from 10-25 at the position that I’m riding this week include Brian Robinson, Jr. (@CAR, if he plays), Devon Achane (@IND, ditto), Chuba Hubbard (@WAS), Tank Bigsby (vs. NE, London), Kareem Hunt (@SF), and Tyrone Tracy, Jr. (@PHI, but with much less conviction if Devin Singletary plays). If Jonathan Taylor plays (currently ranked as the RB29 for the week, which reflects his injury status), he’s a must-start against Miami’s porous run defense.

Sleepers:

Tyler Allgeier (vs. SEA). I listed Allgeier as a sleeper last week and he had his best game of the season, so far (18-105-1). I’ll run it back. I think he’s a decent Flex option whenever the Falcons have a favorable matchup, and Seattle’s run defense is just that.

Raheem Mostert (@IND). Miami clearly wants to be very run-heavy until they get their QB back, and if they can stay in the game, Mostert should get a decent amount of work. He returned to action in Week 5 (before Miami’s Bye) and ran very well. One complicating factor is that Miami could continue to expand Jaylen Wright’s role, so this one comes with some risk. The matchup is a good one, as the Colts have allowed the third most rushing yards to opposing running backs.

If you’re stuck this week, here are some other lower-ranked running backs (outside the Top-25) that I think you can pencil in: Alexander Mattison (@LAR), Austin Ekeler (@CAR), Patriots’ RBs (@JAC, London), and Jaylen Warren (vs. NYJ, and especially if Russell Wilson starts as expected).

Fades:

Jordan Mason (vs. KC). I suspect Mason will make it back for this game, but if he does play, I don’t trust him to get his normal workload. The matchup is also a bad one, as the Chiefs yield just 52 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs on average, and have allowed the second fewest FPPG to opposing running backs.

James Cook (vs. TEN). Cook (toe) missed his team’s Week 6 game and is another player whose status is iffy heading into Week 7. If he does play, I’m leery of him getting his normal workload. It’s also a less than ideal matchup, as the Titans boast a Top-10 run defense.

Tampa Bay RBs (vs. BAL). And here we have our third “starting” running back (Rachaad White) whose playing status is unclear heading into Week 7. If White plays (and it sounds like he will), then I don’t think you can start any of the Bucs’ three RBs with confidence and especially given the matchup. The Ravens have been a brick wall, holding opposing running backs to a league-low of just 45 rushing yards per game.

Here are two more Fades: Aaron Jones (vs. DET, if he plays), and Nick Chubb (vs. CIN, ditto).

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Wide receiver:

Elite options this week – Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, and Jayden Reed;

Rides:

Chris Godwin and Mike Evans (vs. BAL). It’s a two-fer! And it should be, against the NFL’s most generous pass defense. Godwin went off last week and maybe he should be listed as an elite option at this point. Evans was once again stymied by the Saints, but should bounce back in this favorable matchup. The Ravens have yielded some huge days to wide receivers so far in 2024, and they’ve also allowed the most FPPG and TD catches (10) to opposing WRs. Evans and Godwin should add to that total.

Malik Nabers (vs. PHI). Nabers will hopefully be back this week after missing two games with a concussion. His QB and his team need him badly. The Eagles have allowed the fifth-most FPPG to opposing WRs, and defending the better ones is a problem that dates back to last season.

There are quite a few receivers ranked from 12-30 that I think should outperform their ranking this week, so I’ll just do a big list of them: Drake London (v. SEA), and in the same game, D.K. Metcalf (@ATL), Diontae Johnson (vs. WAS), and in the same game, Terry McLaurin (@CAR), Zay Flowers (@TB), Tank Dell (@GB), Jordan Addison (vs. DET), and Ladd McConkey (@ARI).

Sleepers (ranked outside the Top 30):

Demario Douglas (@JAC). Douglas popped in Drake Maye’s first start (get it?), and what’s especially encouraging is that he led all Patriots’ wide receivers in snaps, targets, catches, and yards. He’s garnered nine or more targets in three of the last four games and I fully expect him to be the No. 1 wide receiver in the Drake Maye version of this offense. That’s going to have value on a team that’s going to be trailing most of the time. The Jaguars are a prime matchup, as they’ve allowed the second most FPPG and the most receiving yards to opposing WRs. Douglas is ranked too low this week.

JuJu Smith-Schuster (@SF). It sure looked like JuJu was running all the Rashee Rice underneath and crossing routes in the Chiefs’ first full game without Rice, back in Week 5. JuJu isn’t the player he once was, but he knows the offense and appears to have the trust of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. That goes a long way in my book. I think JuJu is going to be a decent Flex play going forward.

Other WRs ranked outside the top-30 this week that I think you can go with if you’re in need: Xavier Legette (@WAS), Michael Wilson (vs. LAC), Quentin Johnston (@ARI), and Romeo Doubs (vs. HOU).

Fades:

Brandon Aiyuk (vs. KC). This call is a combination of how he’s been playing, and a difficult matchup. Aiyuk got paid, but the holdout had a cost, as he’s the WR45 on the season and has only topped eight fantasy points one time. He also has one of the lowest catch rates in the league. The Chiefs have allowed the second fewest passing yards and sixth fewest FPPG to opposing WRs.

Jaylen Waddle (@IND). It’s a decent matchup, but I simply cannot start Waddle until Tua returns. Waddle hasn’t topped seven fantasy points in a game since Tua got hurt, and Miami is the lowest scoring team in the league. I know, what a difference a year makes. It’s no fun rostering either Waddle or Tyreek Hill right now. It was supposed to be fun. Tyreek is much harder to sit, given the big-play potential.

Calvin Ridley (@Bills). Here’s another big-name WR who is a permanent fade right now, regardless of the matchup. Will Levis is regressing (or maybe he just isn’t a good quarterback). Ridley is coming off a donut in Week 6, and only has two catches for 14 yards in his last three games.

Saints’ WRs (@ DEN). No Olave. No Shahid. Brutal pass defense. Rookie QB making his second start. End of discussion.

I’ll fade both Amari Cooper (vs. TEN) and Davante Adams (@PIT) this week. Adams is obviously very familiar with his quarterback and the offense, but I think in both cases it’s smart to wait one week if you can, to allow both players to ramp up.

Tight end:

Elite options this week – George Kittle, Travis Kelce, Trey McBride, and Brock Bowers; the analysis starts below them, and – cut and paste warning – is any analysis needed? There aren’t 12 TEs worth starting. Start your best name and hope he does well.

Rides:

Evan Engram (vs. NE, London). Engram returned with a bang last week, catching 10 passes for 102 yards. Engram came within two catches of setting the all-time single season receptions record for a TE last season, and he’s Trevor Lawrence’s security blanket. He’s an every-week must-start, on a team that’s going to be in shootouts.

David Njoku (vs. CIN). It’s really hard for me to recommend anyone on Cleveland’s non-existent offense. Like REALLY hard. Like getting World Series tickets hard. It’s an offense that’s setting records for futility and inefficiency. That said, with Amari Cooper gone, a big target share is up for grabs. Njoku is healthy, and talented, and I think he could be in for a decent week in a plus-matchup with a sub-par pass defense. I feel like I need a shower…

Dalton Schultz (@GB). The Nico Collins injury should open up more opportunities for Schultz. I think he’s a decent low-end TE1 play this week against a Green Bay defense that’s allowed the fifth most FPPG to the position.

Sleepers:

Cade Otton (vs. BAL). The Ravens haven’t allowed a tight end to score yet this year, but they’ve allowed the most catches and receiving yards to the position. Otton continues to be a decent play from lower in the ranks. He cashed as a tight end sleeper last week so let’s run it back.

Hunter Henry (@JAC). He’s ranked outside the Top-12 TEs this week and with Drake Maye, I think he’s a borderline TE1 going forward. He scored last week, and he should continue to garner a target share in the 15% range, and higher than that in the red zone. Not bad in today’s barren TE market.

Other TEs ranked outside the Top-12 that I think can be slotted in this week if needed: Isaiah Likely (@TB), Colby Parkinson (vs. LV), and Juwan Johnson (vs. DEN).

Fades:

Tucker Kraft (vs. HOU). Kraft has shown in the last two weeks that he’s a boom-bust option that’s hard to trust. The Packers have a lot of weapons, and he could again be the odd man out this week against a Texans’ defense that did a nice job on Dalton Kincaid last week, and has allowed the second fewest catches and yards to the position, and the sixth fewest FPPG.

Dalton Kincaid (vs. TEN). Josh Allen hit a TE for a score last week. Great news, right? Nope, it was Dawson Knox. Kincaid has been disappointing so far this season, and this week he gets the absolute worst defensive matchup for tight ends. The Titans have allowed just 14 catches for 120 yards (and zero TDs) to opposing tight ends through five games. All of those totals are tops in the league. Some of that is who they’ve faced, but this is still a situation I’d try to avoid this week and especially with new addition Amari Cooper taking away some targets.

Other TE Fades (of players you could be considering): Pat Freiermuth (vs. NYJ), Tyler Conklin (@PIT),

PK and D/ST Streamers (ranked outside the top-12): See my Week 7 Waiver Wire column.

I’m out. Good luck in Week 7!

***This column appears each Thursday right here at Big Blue View. Each Monday, my Waiver Wire column appears here, and on Fridays you can find my weekly FanDuel Props of the week for the Giants, also right here. ***