Do the Colts have a good chance of making the playoffs at 3-3?
If we look at the playoff picture, we can break down the AFC teams into 4 categories:
The locks:
Fighting for the last 3 spot contenders:
Probably out but not dead:
Dead:
According to the major American sportsbooks, the locks all have an 88% chance or better of making the playoffs.
The fighting contender teams have the following chance (also according to the sportsbooks):
- New York Jets – 41%
- Los Angeles Chargers – 67%
- Pittsburgh Steelers – 62.5%
- Cincinnati Bengals – 48%
- New York Jets – 41%
- Indianapolis Colts – 40%
The “probably dead but not out” teams sit at 28% (Broncos) and 33% (Dolphins). Finally, the dead teams all have a probability that’s less than 12%.
Based on those probabilities, the Colts are currently projected to get the 8 or 9 seed and miss the playoffs.
You have to figure based on how things are shaping up, the Colts will need to get to at least 9 wins to have a chance and 10 wins would get them in the playoffs. To get to 9 wins, they’ll need to go 6-5 in their last 11 games and to get to 10 wins they’ll need to go 7-4.
The toughest stretch and one that will probably decide the season is the 5-game run where the Colts play the Texas, Vikings, Bills, Jets and Lions. If we were to break down the remaining games, we’ll mark certain games as must wins:
- Dolphins – Must win (Colts are 3.5 point favourites)
- 5 week tough stretch – Must win one of them, should win two of them (Colts will likely be underdogs in all 5 games)
- Patriots – Must win (Colts will be favourites)
- Broncos/Titans – Must win one of these two games (Colts will be favoured in at least one, maybe both games)
- Giants/Jaguars – Must win one of these two games (Colts will be favoured in at least one, maybe both games)
If they win the must win games, that leaves them with 5 wins and they’ll need to steal one or two wins to make the playoffs. That is more likely to happen in the last two weeks where I pessimistically projected them to go 2-2 against four teams they could be favoured against. If the Colts win the must win games, and then go 3-1 in their last 4 games and win 2 in the tough 5 week stretch, that gets them to 10 wins, which will surely get them to the playoffs.
In my opinion, Vegas has this properly priced at around 40%. They will likely make the playoffs as a wildcard, and probably as a 6 or 7 seed if they do get in.
