Week 5 Colts Offensive Rankings and Analysis: A Step Back

Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous Colts game and analyzing the numbers to form a sort of “what happened” narrative, as well as comparing the Colts against all other teams in the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference Season Stats. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com, Football Outsiders, and the nflFastR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.

To use a phrase I absolutely loathe, the week 6 offense was “good enough to win”, but it wasn’t what I would call good. By the numbers, a 71.4% Drive Success Rate is worse than the previous 2 weeks and that is reflected in a signficant drop in Points per Drive (2.8 to 2.0).

The Colts just couldn’t drive the ball well. Their failed drives averaged less than 9 yards and included 4 three-and-outs. And while four drives within the opponent 10 yard line is a good thing, settling for 50% field goals is not.

TEAM TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

Out of the 28 teams that played in week 6, the colts finished 16th in PPD and only 18th in DSR. They had the 2nd to lowest yards per play, once again relying on explosive plays for the bulk of their success.

On the season, the offense drops 1 spot in my rankings from 13th to 14th.

PASS TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

The Colts leaned on the pass, but only managed a mediocre performance. The 16th ranked EPA efficiency is not impressive, but as I stated in my QB stats article, the passing was much more consistent and thus earns a decent 12th ranked passing Success Rate.

On the season, the Colts actually move up 1 spot from 12th to 11th best passing team.

RUSH TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

The run game was awful. I don’t care so much about just 79 yards on designed runs, but more that they only got 4 first downs on 28 carries, which was the 4th lowest conversion rate, which matches their ranking on success rate.

Over half of their yards came from 2 runs, which means on the other 26 runs they averaged just 1.3 yards per carry. That is simply atrocious. It was so bad, that the season ranking drops 8 spots to 14th.

CONCLUSION & LOOK AHEAD

This team is not good enough to get by with a one-dimensional offense. On the year, they are still a bit above average in both passing and rushing, but that has been falling and needs shoring up. It’s possible that week 7 will see the return of Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor, which should help balance out the attack.

Week 7 is a matchup against a Miami Dolphins defense that is ranked 15th in Points per Drive against. But I think that actually under-rates them as they have the 6th ranked defensive Drive Success Rate. They give up the 12th lowest yards per play and are #1 in preventing 3rd down conversions.

Against the pass, they give up the 13th lowest EPA per dropback and the 16th lowest passing success rate. They don’t give up a lot of yards or first downs (8th ny/d against, 6th 1st% against), so it will be a challenge to move the chains through the air.

However, they are very weak against the run. They rank 27th in defensive Adj Rush Success Rate, giving up the 5th most yards per carry on the 4th most explosive rushes per game. This is a game custom made for JT. Please be healthy.