What could Rams receiver Tutu Atwell make on his next contract?
The loss of their top two receivers this season has at least given the Rams a chance for a long look at rookie Jordan Whittington, and a longer look back at former second round pick Tutu Atwell. Since going catch-less in Week 1, Atwell has 281 yards in the last four games, which would put him on pace for just under 1,200 yards. He’s also leading all NFL receivers in creating “multiple steps of separation” and is second on the team in receiving EPA behind Whittington.
What sort of contract could Atwell be looking at as a free agent in 2025 if he keeps that up for the rest of the season?
The deal to motivate Tutu Atwell
Only 24, Atwell has not played up to the standards of a starting NFL receiver for the majority of his career. But recently there’s some evidence that he could be a valuable player in a league that still significantly values 11 personnel and having three wide receivers.
If the Rams had a heathy offensive line and receivers room, there’s a chance we’d already be talking about Atwell as the team’s breakout player similar to the trio of Brandin Cooks, Cooper Kupp, and Robert Woods. Could Atwell eventually be a lite version of Cooks?
If I was Tutu Atwell, the player I’d use as motivation to hit free agency on a hot streak would be Gabe Davis.
The 2020 fourth round pick by the Bills was a lot more productive than Atwell during the first three years of his career, but he was never as good as Buffalo probably needed him or the other receivers to be. He had exactly 35 catches in his first two seasons, then 836 yards in year three, but he stepped back in year four with just 746 yards in 17 games.
Despite having a career catch rate of 54.5% and never hitting 900 yards in a season, the Jaguars signed Davis to a three-year, $39 million contract in free agency.
Gabe Davis has played more good football that Atwell. But I believe Tutu Atwell has a lot more potential to become good than Davis.
Rooting for Atwell to succeed should appeal to Rams fans even if they don’t care to re-sign him, because the more he makes in free agency, the better the compensatory pick coming back to L.A. based on how much money he makes from his next team.
There is also evidence that Atwell’s been elite at creating separation for himself, gaining “multiple steps of separation” on 8.7% of his routes, the highest rate in the NFL.
Receivers who have created multiple steps of separation on the highest percentage of routes:
(Per @FantasyPtsData – min 100 routes)
8.7% — Tutu Atwell
7.6% — Jameson Williams
7.4% — Zay Flowers
6.6% — Terry McLaurin
6.4% — Malik Nabers
6.4% — Mike Evans
6.3% — Brandon Aiyuk…— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 10, 2024
But can teams trust Atwell when he’s barely seen the field in his first three seasons and wasn’t going to be featured in 2024 unless Kupp and Puka Nacua were injured?
The contract Tutu Atwell would probably get
The most likely scenario for Atwell would be the Rams looking to Jauan Jennings and the San Francisco 49ers. A slot receiver, Jennings signed a two-year, $15.4 million contract this past May. Jennings had 265 yards and one touchdown in 2023, but the 49ers saw potential for him to be better and now he leads the team with 404 yards.
I think a $6-$7 million contract over two years would make just as much sense for Atwell, depending on how the rest of the season goes and assuming L.A. doesn’t extend him before the end of the year.
There’s evidence that Atwell’s already having a breakout season, but he will get more expensive by the week if it continues to trend in the right direction.
