Breaking down 3 key matchups for Lions vs. Cowboys with a deep statistical dive.
Welcome to my Week 6 observations for the Detroit Lions matchup at the Dallas Cowboys. The Lions are looking to get off the schneid in this series, as they’ve lost six straight games against the Cowboys, including five road games, with their last win coming in 2013.
Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics were made available via NFL Pro. Now, let’s take a look at what the Lions are up against with these cowhands.
The game starts and ends with the Lions ground game
The Cowboys will continue to be without starting edge defenders Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence, plus rookie Marshawn Kneeland, and now starting linebacker, green dot, and long-time Mike Zimmer consigliere Eric Kendricks. The green dot could go to DeMarvion Overshow, Damone Clark, or even Donovan Wilson if reserve linebacker Nick Vigil is also out (listed as questionable).
Similar to Week 4 when the Seattle Seahawks were without a number of their starting defensive front seven players, the Cowboys’ injuries won’t help them. While already being susceptible in run defense, they’ll have an even tougher assignment against the Lions’ ground game.
The Cowboys’ defense is dead last in the NFL allowing +0.17 EPA/Rush while the Lions offense is 3rd in the NFL averaging +0.10 EPA/Rush. The Lions have built their identity around their rushing attack and they should be able to dictate the game while controlling the clock while on the road.
When peeling back the statistics curtain even further the numbers are more jarring. The Cowboys’ run defense is struggling despite deploying the second most stacked boxes (8+ defenders) in the NFL at 33.3% and having the second-fewest light boxes (6 or fewer defenders) at only 24.2%. They are providing extra defenders in the box, and ensuring they aren’t caught undermanned, and yet they still are struggling that badly at avoiding getting ground and pounded.
Defensively, the Cowboys are also last in the NFL in Run Stuff Rate (run plays resulting in no gain or loss) at only 10.5%. Meanwhile, the Lions offense is 11th in only getting stuffed 15.5% of the time. This means the Lions should be able to manage to stay ahead of the sticks early and often.
Both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs should hear their numbers called to take over the game and hopefully put it out of reach. Frank Ragnow, coming back after only a week’s rest from a partially torn pectoral muscle, will be a critical player at the point of attack and should give the ground game more than a puncher’s chance. Ragnow should have a productive day at the office as he’ll often be facing up against 2023 first-round pick Mazi Smith. Smith has a 30.9 PFF Defensive Grade which ranks 130th out of 131 qualifying interior defensive linemen and might be the biggest liability on the Cowboys’ defense.
Ben Johnson window dressing
The Lions offense should have another matchup advantage with this one being a pre-snap advantage to keep an eye on. The Cowboys’ defense is 32nd in both EPA/Play against motion, allowing +0.17 EPA/Play, and EPA/Pass against motion with a remarkably bad +0.30 EPA/Pass (only three other teams are worse than +0.10 EPA/Pass against motion).
The Cowboys are already struggling in communication, assignment, and execution when opposing offenses change-up their look by utilizing motion, and now they’ll be without their green dot communicator in Kendricks.
The Lions already use motion on 50.25 snaps/game which is second most in the NFL (behind Sean McVay and the Rams). Look for Lions offensive coordinator, and play design wizard, Ben Johnson to rely on motion throughout the game to put Cowboys defenders in an uncertain decision bind and lead to big catch-and-run opportunities or perhaps Montgomery or Gibbs to get their first big home run of the season (neither has a rush longer than 24 yards).
Dak going Deep in the Big D
Everyone reading this remembers last year when Dak Prescott escaped from Derrick Barnes in his own end zone and flung a deep strike to CeeDee Lamb that led to a 92-yard catch-and-run touchdown. Prescott is again having success on passes of 20+ air yards this season.
On deep passes, Prescott has a 109.7 NFL passer rating (3rd among QBs), a +15.6% completion percentage over expectation (3rd), and a +0.76 EPA/drop back (6th). Three of Prescott’s nine deep passing completions have gone to Lamb while Week 5 Hero Jalen Tolbert and KaVontae Turpin have each made two receptions on them.
Luckily for Detroit, the Lions remain the best defense in the NFL against the deep pass. On 20+ air yard passes faced the Lions have only allowed 48 yards (1st) on 12 pass attempts for a -1.04 EPA/Pass (1st) and have recorded a 58.3% quarterback pressure rate (3rd) on those passes.
The Cowboys best chance to keep this game close is to be able to hit chunk plays. Aaron Glenn, Brian Branch, Kerby Joseph, and company will do their best to thwart those efforts.
