4 keys to a Detroit Lions Week 6 victory over the Dallas Cowboys. It’s the Honolulu Blueprint!
The Detroit Lions (3-1) are on the road in Week 6, traveling to Texas to take on the Dallas Cowboys (3-2), hoping for back-to-back wins over teams who have previously had their number.
The last time the Lions were in Dallas the ending of the game was drenched in controversy, and while that can be a motivating factor, coach Dan Campbell is confident his team will be able to control their emotions.
“There are reasons behind why you want to win (each game) and you find what those are and they’re different every week,” Campbell said. “But you’ve got to play a clean game, you’ve got to keep your head about you, we’ve got to be disciplined, we’ve got to play fundamental football, we’ve got to have a good gameplan, (and) we’ve got to execute it.”
If the Lions want to continue their revenge tour, they’ll need to follow the keys to victory laid out in this week’s Honolulu Blueprint.
Cowboys base schemes
Typically in this section, we break down the Lions’ opponent’s base schemes, but we decided to expand our view in a separate piece: Lions Week 6 Preview: Breaking down Cowboys’ offensive and defensive schemes.
So, be sure to check it out for more context related to this week’s keys to victory.
Key 1: Run the ball early and often
“We believe that we are an extremely physical, detailed, and explosive unit,” Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson said of the offense. “That’s what we want to bring to the table each and every week, we want our physicality to show up. Obviously, the easiest way to do that is in the run game.”
By most metrics, the Lions have one of the top rushing attacks in the NFL. They have the fifth-best PFF team rushing grade, an average of 151.3 rushing yards per game, which is seventh-best, an average of 1.8 rushing touchdowns per game a third-best mark, and create an average of 1.62 yards before contact (meaning how many yards a running back gains before being touched by a defender) which is ninth best in the NFL.
On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys’ run defense may be the weakest element on their team. Here’s an excerpt from my analysis of the Cowboys scheme article:
The biggest obstacle for the Cowboys’ defense in 2024 has been their inability to consistently stop the run. Currently, they’re allowing the ninth-most rushing yards (675), ninth-most yards after contact (3.37 per attempt), the second-most rushing touchdowns (8), have a PFF team run defensive grade of 38.6 (lowest in the NFL), and their “stuff rate” (ability to stop offensive runs for a loss or no gain) is just 10.5%, which according to NextGenStats, is worst in the NFL.
The Cowboys have seen improvement in their run defense over the last two weeks—as multiple Lions coaches have mentioned in press conferences this week—but when you look at the rushing efficiency of their opponents, it’s easy to see the differences between who they faced and the Lions. For example, the Steelers are 23rd in rushing DVOA and have a per-rush EPA (expected points added) of -0.10 (which ranks 25th), while the Giants are 28th in rushing DVOA and have a per-rush EPA of -0.22 (30th).
Meanwhile, the Lions are second in rushing DVOA and have a per-rush EPA of +0.11, the third-best in the NFL. And the Lions believe they’re not even operating at full capacity yet.
“We’re going to continue to challenge them. I think they know that we really still haven’t hit the mark of what we are capable of hitting,” Lions running backs coach/assistant head coach Scottie Montgomery said of running backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. “I believe that collectively in our room and collectively on offense. It’s time. It’s time for us to continue stacking these performances all together.”
This should be the top priority for the Lions in this game. The Cowboys like to keep their safeties in two-high shells, but if the Lions can establish the run, Dallas will be forced to drop players into the box, and in turn, open up the secondary for Lions quarterback Jared Goff.
Key 2: Give Jared Goff time to cook
When the Cowboys’ defense adjusts to Detroit’s run game, the Lions’ offensive line will need their pass protection to be on point. The likely return of All-Pro center Frank Ragnow will certainly help bolster the Lions unit, and they face a Cowboys defensive that is working through several key injuries: All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons is expected to miss this game, Pro Bowler DeMarcus Lawrence was recently placed on injured reserve, and his direct backup rookie Marshawn Kneeland will also miss this game. The trio accounts for roughly 50% of the Cowboys’ pressures.
Chauncey Golston stepped in for Parsons in Week 4 and 5, and has six of his 11 pressures in those two games. Golston has very respectful numbers and has played well, but there’s still a drop-off from Parsons. The bigger loss will be on the opposite edge, where Carl Lawson is asked to replace Lawrence and Kneeland. The drop-off is much larger here, though give Lawson credit for securing four of his five pressures on the season over the last two games.
While the Cowboys have taken a hit in talent on the field, defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer is a brilliant defense mind when it comes to creating pressure in a variety of ways.
“Yeah, I mean, he finds exactly what you’re trying to do in protection and knows how to attack it,” Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson said of Zimmer. “He’s been doing it for so long now and he’s really the godfather here of this Double A-gap (blitz), and he’s evolved it over the years as well, and he seems to always find a way, each week, to get an unblocked guy on the quarterback.”
If the Lions offensive line can keep Goff clean, he could have another big day. Goff is coming off a “perfect game” where he went 18-for-18 (19 straight completions dating back to the previous game) and is operating at a high level of efficiency.
“He knows exactly what we’re looking for, he knows what the bad looks are too,” Johnson said of Goff. “He knows why each play is being called and the premier look for that play, but he also knows what could give us some issues, and so just his general awareness of how to make things right now when I’m not timing things up quite right – it’s been really impressive.”
If things go as expected with the rushing attack, Goff won’t need to “win” the game for the Lions, he’ll just need to continue to be efficient and put the offense in spots to capitalize.
Key 3: Make the Cowboys’ offense one-dimensional
While the Lions are expected to put points on the board, the Cowboys have the offensive firepower to stay with them.
The Lions’ defense prioritizes stopping the run, and it shows up in their statistics. they’re the fourth-best team in the NFL in stopping the run, only allowing an average of 90.8 rushing yards per game, and check in as the seventh-best run defense by PFF grades standards.
The Cowboys will test the Lions’ commitment to run defense, but unfortunately for Dallas, their rushing attack has struggled. They’re 31st in team rushing yards and yards per attempt, averaging 82 rushing yards per game and 3.5 rushing yards per attempt. Their efficiency is average, EPA per rush is -0.7 (20th) and rushing DVOA puts them at 17th, but the success is so inconsistent, that they only run the ball 36% of the time, which is the 29th fewest attempts in the NFL.
If the Lions can stunt the Cowboys’ rushing attack, they can make the Cowboys one-dimensional. Now, that may seem counterintuitive, considering how efficient the Cowboys passing attack is, but there are advantages to be gained.
If you look at the pure passing statistics, the Cowboys are impressive. Quarterback Dak Prescott is second in the league in passing yards (1,424), is averaging 271.6 passing yards per game, has eight touchdown passes, and is only being pressured around 26.3% of the time, second-lowest in the NFL.
But it’s the efficiency numbers that tell a different story. The Cowboys are 20th in passing DVOA, 14th in PFF team passing grade (66.7), 13th in EPA/Pass at -0.03, and 19th in time to pressure against (pressure arrives on average at 2.64 seconds). This has resulted in Prescott adjusting his game and speeding things up.
In order to get passes off quickly, Prescott has moved away from play-action, using it on less than 20% of plays, which is the fewest in the NFL. He is also throwing the ball short of the first down marker 51.4% of the time (-0.9 air yards to sticks average) and asking his skill player to gain yards after the catch.
If the Lions can indeed take away the run game early, they’ll be able to counter Prescott’s sped-up offense by focusing more on pass rushing, allowing them to pin their ears back on their pass rush.
Key 4: Make your tackles
I originally had the focus of this section on CeeDee Lamb, as Campbell tabbed him as a “point of emphasis” in this game. While I agree with Campbell’s assessment that Lamb is the biggest threat on offense, the Cowboys’ adjustment in offensive philosophy—specifically with quick passes and being reliant on YAC—has me pivoting.
If the Lions can stunt the rushing attack and force Prescott to default into making quick throws, the Lions’ tackling efficiency will need to be on point in order to slow down the Cowboys passing offense YAC, which currently ranks fourth in the NFL.
The Lions pride themselves on being able to tackle and made strategic moves in the offseason to acquire players who dedicate themselves to being physical and efficient tacklers. According to PFF, the Lions rank as the fourth-best tackling team in the NFL, and have the fifth fewest missed tackles (34) in the NFL. If there is a dent in the armor, it’s that the Lions had eight or fewer missed tackles in each of their first three games, then had 14 in Week 4 against the Seahawks. That being said, you could point to that game as an anomaly, seeing as it deviates from the previous pattern, and the Lions were without their best tackler in Brian Branch.
Branch is expected to return this week, and if the team tackling efficiency elevates with him, they’ll set themselves up to potentially slow down the most consistent part of the Cowboys passing attack.
