Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys preview, prediction: On Paper

It’s Dallas Cowboys week for the Detroit Lions, which almost certainly means there are shenanigans on the way. Unfortunately, our On Paper preview series has no “chaos” metric, so I’m forced to approach this matchup with the false assumption that nothing wacky is going to happen down in Jerry World.

With that in mind, here’s a deep statistical dive into Lions vs. Cowboys in our Week 6 preview and prediction.

Lions pass offense (18th in DVOA) vs. Cowboys pass defense (18th)

After a shaky start to the season, the Lions passing attack seems to have figured itself out. Jared Goff shook off some uncharacteristic rust and is now performing at the level we’ve been accustomed to over the past 2.5 seasons. Does that mean we can completely ignore the first two weeks of the season? I’m inclined to say we probably should given Goff’s long-term standing as a top-10 statistical quarterback in this league, but we’re too early in the season to pass data off as outliers. So, instead, I’ll compromise and share Goff’s stats for the entire season, while also highlighting how good he has been in the past two games:

All season (4 games):

• 8.2 yards per attempt (fourth)
• 98.6 passer rating (eighth)
• 3.2 interception percentage (26th)
• +0.08 EPA per pass play (eighth, NFL Pro)
• 18th in DVOA
• 49.6% success rate (eighth)

Last 3 weeks (2 games):

• 12.0 yards per attempt (first)
• 138.9 passer rating (first)
• 2.4 interception percentage (23rd)
• +0.202 EPA per pass play (fourth)
• 64.0% success rate (first)

So, even with the Lions’ slow start, this is arguably a top-10 offense, and in the past two games, they’ve been a top-five offense—which is more in line with what we’ve seen in previous years.

This week, the offense is essentially at full health, and assuming there’s no rust from the bye week, they should be at their best.

This Cowboys pass defense is a bit tough to figure out right now due to the wild swing in opponent’s talent level. Against the strong offenses of the Saints and Ravens, they struggled. Against the Browns, Giants, and Steelers—three struggling offenses—they were fine. The chart reveals the same thing the DVOA ranking does: an average-to-below-average defense.

Statistically, they rank 18th in yards per attempt allowed (7.1), 15th in passer rating (87.3), 20th in EPA (-0.01), and 15th in success rate. Again, we’re talking average.

Obviously, their team is going through some serious injury issues when it comes to their pass rush. Demarcus Lawrence and Marshawn Kneeland are already out, while Micah Parsons seems unlikely to play, as well. However, they do have some interior defenders that could cause problems. Osa Odighizuwa and Linval Joseph can cause some chaos.

Still, their pass rush is definitely struggling without Parsons, who still has seven more pressures (21) than any other player on the team. The Cowboys’ pass rush win rate is now just 22nd in the league, while their team PFF pass rush grade is 12th.

That said, their secondary is filled with talent. Jourdan Lewis may be the best nickel cornerback in football. And, when healthy, Trevon Diggs and DaRon Bland are a strong outside corner duo. Bland returned to practice this week after a stint on injured reserve, but it seems like he’ll—at best—be available on a pitch count. Dallas is much more likely to get Caelen Carson back. The rookie fifth-round pick has started three games for the Cowboys, tallying two passes defended and an average 59.7 coverage grade.

Player to watch: Lewis vs. Amon-Ra St. Brown. The two have a little trash talk rivalry brewing, but they’re also top players at their craft. Last matchup, St. Brown caught six passes for 90 yards and a touchdown, but only one of those passes (for an 11-yard TD) was against Lewis.

Advantage: Lions +1.5. With a handcuffed pass rush, Dallas is likely to give Goff a lot of time to throw on Sunday, and that’s where he’s most lethal. Currently, the Cowboys are allowing 2.93 seconds to throw on average, which is the sixth-longest in the NFL.

Lions run offense (2nd) vs. Cowboys run defense (31st)

Don’t sweat too much about those red cells. If I remove kneel-downs, the Lions’ yards per carry jump to 4.6 YPC against the Cardinals and 4.5 YPC against the Seahawks. That said, look at the yards per carry allowed by each team thus far. Detroit has played a lot of bad rushing defenses, and they have eaten off every one of them.

The overall stats are pretty darn good, especially without a rushing quarterback. They rank 10th in yards per carry, but third in EPA per run (+0.11), first in adjusted line yards, fourth in success rate (50.4%), ninth in yards before contact per attempt (1.62), and 12th in yards after contact per rush (3.1). They’re excellent in short-yardage situations, converting on 79 percent of those opportunities (fifth-highest) and they’re only stuffed (tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage) 16 percent of the time (10th).

Have the Cowboys turned their run defense around, or have they just faced two of the worst rushing attacks? That’s a hard question to answer this early in the season, but it’s certainly worth pointing out that the Giants and Steelers are bottom 10 teams in rush EPA and DVOA. I don’t want to completely throw out their defensive improvement, though, as holding a team to just 26 rushing yards and 1.1 yards per carry is impressive no matter who the opponent is.

That said, I can’t ignore the early-season struggles either. The Saints and Ravens have top-10 rushing attacks and both just absolutely plowed through the Cowboys with no resistance. When the Lions’ rushing attack is right up there with Baltimore and New Orleans, it’s hard to see the Cowboys having a ton of success stopping the run this week.

While the overall stats are heavily skewed by those two games, I think it’s still worth pointing out just how concerning this matchup could be for Dallas. They currently rank 13th in yards per carry allowed (4.4), but 32nd in EPA per rush (+0.17), 32nd in stuffed percentage (10.5%), 30th in run stop win rate, and 29th in success rate (46.2%). This is a problem.

Player to watch: Mazi Smith. The former Wolverine has mostly been a disappointment through a year and change, but against the Giants, he was fantastic. He’ll have a tough matchup with Frank Ragnow, but I do wonder if he’s turned a corner.

Advantage: Lions +3. This is about as big of an advantage as I’ll give out this early in the season with sample sizes still low. By the stats, the Lions have a massive advantage here, but Dallas’ recent success gives me at least a little pause—enough for me not to give out a +4 or +5 advantage.

Cowboys pass offense (20th) vs. Lions pass defense (11th)

Due to falling behind in games and a lack of a run game, the Cowboys offense has gone through Dak Prescott through five weeks. Dallas currently ranks second in passing attempts, which explains why they are also racking up the yardage in each game (second-most).

Efficiency-wise, this is closer to an average passing attack. The Cowboys rank 13th in yards per attempt (7.4), 17th in passer rating (92.1), 17th in dropback EPA (0.050) and 15th in success rate.

Prescott, himself, has been pretty solid. His +2.8% completion percentage over expected is ninth in the NFL, but turnovers have been an issue. He already has four interceptions on the season and his 4.4 turnover worthy play percentage (per PFF) is sixth-highest in the NFL. He also has four fumbles on the season, although he hasn’t lost one yet.

Pass blocking hasn’t been great, either. Rookie left tackle Tyler Guyton and veteran right tackle Terence Steele have given up 13 and 14 pressures, respectively—putting both players among the top-10 in most pressures allowed.

This chart is starting to look a lot like how the Lions’ pass defense ended last year. They’re hemorrhaging a ton of yardage, but their efficiency numbers are okay, thanks to interceptions and sacks.

The team ranks 15th in yards per attempt allowed (7.0), 12th in passer rating (84.5), 16th in EPA per pass attempt (-0.07), but 28th in success rate (50.5%).

Where they clearly succeed right now is quarterback pressure. They rank second in PFF pass rush grade (85.0), ninth in pass rush win rate (46%), and 11th in pressure rate (per Pro-Football-Reference).

What is still very much in question is their coverage units. While outside corners Carlton Davis and Terrion Arnold have been relatively sticky in coverage, they aren’t getting the production they need. Cooper Kupp, Chris Godwin, and DK Metcalf all tallied at least 100 receiving yards against the Lions, and Davis and Arnold have racked up a collective 13 flags in four games.

Still, the Lions rank 11th in PFF’s coverage grade, and Detroit even ranks t-fifth in pass breakups (24) despite playing one fewer game than most teams. There’s hope here.

Player to watch: CeeDee Lamb. You didn’t think I forgot about him, did you? Lamb put up over 200 yards in the previous matchup and he’s currently on pace for nearly 1,300 yards this season (75.6 YPG average). He’s also averaging an impressive 15.1 yards per catch, so don’t be surprised if Prescott targets Lamb deep early and often.

Advantage: Cowboys +1. I’m guessing some will object to this advantage, but I just feel like the Cowboys are going to rack up a ton of yardage against the Lions, and that will keep them in the game. If Detroit can pick off Prescott once or twice, that’s likely all they’ll need to win the game, but I do expect Dallas to pick up a few explosive plays through the air to keep us nervous.

Cowboys run offense (17th) vs. Lions run defense (19th)

Reunion shows are terrible, and Ezekiel Elliott is proving it once again. He’s produced just 98 rushing yards on 30 carries (3.3 YPC), and has ceded the starting role to little-known Rico Dowdle, who had a been a special teams player for the previous four years of his NFL career.

Overall, this rushing attack is far, far worse than the DOVA suggests. Granted, they’ve faced some tough run defenses in the Ravens, Giants, and Steelers, but I don’t see much promise in this unit anywhere. They rank 21st in EPA/rush, 20th in success rate, and 31st in yards per carry.

The chart looks a little worse than they actually are, likely because they’ve only attempted 116 rushes thus far this year—seventh fewest among teams who have played five games.

In short, their running game is ineffective, hasn’t produced a run longer than 13 yards, and is typically quickly abandoned. And if you’re worried about Dak Prescott running, he has a total of 24 rushing yards this year with a long of 8.

The Lions’ run defense DVOA was absolutely crushed last week after allowing a very strong game for Kenneth Walker and the Seahawks. Last week, Detroit’s run defense ranked fourth in DVOA, now they’re 19th.

That drastic fall is overly-dramatic. Detroit run defense has typically been very stout, and even after that game, they look extremely impenetrable up the middle. There were some tackling mistakes against the Seahawks that were uncharacteristic, and I’m not particularly worried about it.

That said, that game caused all of their rushing statistics to fall. They now rank 16th in yards per carry allowed (4.4), 13th in EPA/play (-0.07), 10th in stuffed percentage (18.1%), and 16th in success rate (39.7%). It’s been a while since the Lions run defense looked so statistically average, but I’m just not buying it after one bad performance. They were literally top-10 in all of these rankings going into the Seahawks game.

Player to watch: RG Zack Martin. Martin is a seven-time All Pro, but popped up on the injury report with a back injury and has not practiced in the team’s first two opportunities. I still believe he’ll play, but if he can’t, Dallas would have to rely on either Brock Hoffman or T.J. Bass, who have a combined four starts.

Advantage: Lions +3. I would be very surprised if the Cowboys got anything going on the ground. Their best chance is probably some designed runs for Lamb (who has seven carries this year) or Prescott, but Dallas seems unwilling to put their quarterback in that position. Expect Dallas to be one-dimensional on Sunday.

Last week’s prediction

While I was right about the Lions winning and beating the spread last week, my prediction of a defensive battle couldn’t have been any wronger. My 23-17 Lions prediction was way off from the 42-29 final score.

In the comment section, our winner was 1951LION, who predicted 42-24 Lions. Here’s your prize:

This week’s prediction

It sounds weird to say this, but the Cowboys—on paper—are the weakest team Detroit has faced to date. They aren’t doing anything particularly well right now, and their two biggest weaknesses (running the ball and stopping the run) match up quite perfectly for the Lions.

In the end, it’s a +6.5 Lions advantage, which is very significant by On Paper standards. I still do think Prescott will pull off some heroics and keep this game close for a majority of the afternoon. However, there’s no reason Detroit shouldn’t somewhat comfortably win this one. Lions 31, Cowboys 20.