5 Questions with Big Cat Country: Is Trevor Lawrence the next Carson Wentz?

Can the Colts break the 14 year Jacksonville curse?

In Week 5 of 2024 our Indianapolis Colts will travel to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Knowing the party was hitting the road, I sat down with Gus Logue of Big Cat Country, SB Nation’s Jaguars blog. You can find him on Twitter @gus_logue. We swapped questions and answers about both the Jaguars and the Colts and what follows is what I’ve learned about this week’s enemy.

You can find my answers to his questions here.

Chris Shepherd: Given where we’re at right now, I have to ask this question. Doug Pederson is on the hot-seat, how hot is his seat? If the Colts do the impossible and get a win in Duval this weekend do you believe Pederson will be fired and if he is, who is the interim and who’s calling plays?

Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images

Gus Logue: Multiple times this offseason, team owner Shad Khan publicly attested the 2024 Jaguars as the best team in the franchise’s 25-year history. Close losses and tough opponents be damned — an 0-4 start was never acceptable. Pederson’s seat is definitely hot. Losing to the division rival Colts in Jacksonville for the first time since 2014 should be enough for Khan to make up his mind, though I wouldn’t be surprised if ownership waited until the team returned from London or entered their bye before pulling the trigger.

I think the Jaguars have more fight left in them than most folks (understandably) believe. But if Pederson can’t turn the ship around, quarterbacks coach Mike McCoy is a good bet to be the interim head coach and player caller. It’s hard to imagine Pederson leaving and offensive coordinator Press Taylor staying, and McCoy easily has the most experience of anyone else on the staff.

Chris: A lot of Colts fans loved Brian Thomas Jr. during the buildup to the 2024 NFL Draft. How has Thomas looked so far as a rookie, where has he excelled, what can he still improve and would you have any interest in trading him for Ad Mitchell?

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Gus: Thomas Jr. is the most improved player on the team, and at this rate, he may be one the best players on the team by Christmas. The 21-year-old wasn’t bad at rookie minicamp and the start of OTAs, but as he’s grown more confident, his skillset has shone brighter. It started with a sideline snag in the first preseason game, then Thomas Jr. torched the Bucs’ secondary during joint practices — flash forward to today, and the 23rd overall pick ranks top-15 yards per reception and first downs per route run among all pass-catchers. This kid is different. He can still improve his rapport with Trevor Lawrence and catching through contact, but Thomas Jr. has firm hands, a silky stride, dawg-like competitiveness, and of course, unparalleled long speed.

Unfortunately for Colts fans, an eruption game is coming sooner than later. You can keep AD Mitchell.

Chris: I’ve watched a lot of Trevor Lawrence in the past but I’ve yet to watch any Jaguars tape this year. He, based on my previous work, is a good quarterback. So what’s going on now? Why is he completing just 53% of his passes? Did he train with Carson Wentz this offseason or something?

Photo by Jack Gorman/Getty Images

Gus: Lawrence’s dreadful completion percentage can partly be explained by his average throw depth (10.6 yards, third-highest in the NFL). The Jaguars are being more aggressive down the field this year because the speed of Thomas Jr., especially paired with the arm strength of Lawrence, can stretch a lot of field. Jacksonville has actually had a successful deep passing game this year; the issue is an overreliance on it. Midrange shots aren’t falling and layups are seldom called for by coaches. Taylor even said at his Thursday availability that the coaching staff didn’t believe it needed to get Lawrence in a rhythm by taking “layups” and their confidence in him hasn’t waived. But as last week’s two overthrown deep balls to Thomas Jr. and Christian Kirk showed, Lawrence is indeed out of rhythm and needs to find a way to get his own confidence back. The issue there is that most of Lawrence’s distrust seems to lie in the system and/or players around him, hence him pressing. Either way, Jacksonville goes as Lawrence goes. He needs to find a way to get in the zone.

The Wentz dig got me because, like Wentz in Philadelphia, Lawrence has developed some bad habits. I did an 8-minute film breakdown on Twitter/X that’s available here for anyone interested.

Chris: If you were an offensive coordinator charged with creating a game plan to beat this Jacksonville defense, what would that plan look like? What matchups would you target? Are there any players you would avoid?

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Gus: I’d target Jacksonville’s linebacker unit (which is missing Foye Oluokun and possibly Devin Lloyd for this game) and safety room (which has seen underwhelming campaigns from Andre Cisco and Antonio Johnson). While the cornerback group is without Tyson Campbell, Ronald Darby and Montaric Brown have stepped up on the outside as well as you could ask. You try stopping Nico Collins.

Pass on early downs over the middle — early downs specifically because Jacksonville’s run defense is not worth testing. They rank top-five in yards per carry and success rate allowed this season and they’re only getting better each week. That said, with Josh Hines-Allen in concussion protocol, it may be worth trying weakside runs this week.

Chris: The Colts are 2.5 point underdogs on the road to a winless Jaguars team. Is that line fair, how do you see this game going and what will the final score be?

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Gus: I’m a little surprised the line isn’t closer to a pick ‘em (in Indy’s favor). Even if the Jaguars are clearly better than their record and the Colts haven’t won in Jax since 2014, it’s funny to see a winless team favored. I suppose the Colts’ injuries are a big factor, though, so it seems like a fair enough line.

It would not shock me if the Colts won and Jaguars fans responded by changing their Twitter/X profile pictures to Pederson with a clown nose. However! Jacksonville’s roster is simply too good to give up and accept loss after loss. I see the Jaguars winning with the run on offense and against the run on defense. Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby have big days on the ground as Trey Sermon fails to put Anthony Richardson/Joe Flacco in favorable third down looks. Jaguars 27, Colts 17.

I can’t thank Gus enough for answering this week’s questions. Make sure you head over to Big Cat Country and @gus_logue on Twitter to check out his work.

Hope he’s wrong about the outcome of this one but this is the Jacksonville curse we’re talking about, so he probably won’t be.

As always, go Colts.