The NFC is Wide Open and the Vikings are in the Driver’s Seat

Talk of a special season for the Vikings inside and outside TCO Performance Center

The Minnesota Vikings have shocked the football world with their 4-0 start. I was more optimistic than most with my 10-7 preseason prediction, but perhaps not optimistic enough based on the Vikings’ performance in September. Nobody figured the Vikings to start 4-0, let alone with the highest point differential, highest total DVOA, and a host of other superlatives as we make the first quarter turn in the regular-season schedule.

It’s a long season for sure, and what happened in September is long forgotten by December, let alone the post-season.

But what the Vikings have accomplished in September- going 4-0 with one of the best offenses and defenses in the league- and trailing for only just over 3 minutes combined has come as a complete surprise to football pundits near and far. But on further review, the consensus is that this is no fluke- the Vikings are for real.

There remain some doubters: can Sam Darnold continue at this clip? Will teams figure out Flores’ defense? And there is room for some of that. But on the other hand, the Vikings are 4-0 against the 8th toughest schedule played so far by opponent DVOA, with the best DVOA, highest point differential, a top five offense and defense, the list goes on. In EPA/play terms, on both offense and defense, using a typical garbage time filter excluding plays when games are outside a 10-90% winning chance, here is how the Vikings compare to the rest of the league (upper right is better):

And again, this was playing a schedule that included three teams from the elite eight last season- all of which are/were favorites for the Super Bowl this year too.

Granted this is only four games into the season, but Mike Sando at The Athletic put together a pretty interesting stat.

Since 1989, 47 teams have started the season 4-0 and had a +50 or better point differential

(the Vikings have a +57 point differential) here are the season results for those teams:

• 8 teams won the Super Bowl (17%)
• 10 teams lost the Super Bowl (21%)
• 3 teams lost the Conference Championship (6%)
• 8 teams had 13+ wins (17%)
• 13 teams had 10-12 wins (28%)
• 4 teams had 8-9 wins (9%)
• 1 team finished under .500 (2%)

I’m guessing by the records that all but the last 5 teams made the playoffs, and of those that made the playoffs, half made it to the conference championship and over 40% made it to the Super Bowl.

That’s a pretty high rate.

I’m guessing the main obstacle for the teams that didn’t do as well were injuries later in the season and/or choking in the early rounds of the playoffs.

The NFC is Wide Open

Looking ahead, the NFC looks more wide open than it has for many years. The Lions still look solid for the most part, but beyond that the usual contenders look weaker than they have in the past. Dallas and Philadelphia are struggling. The 49ers too. All are dealing with injured players, some lost for the season. The Saints look like they were an early flash in the pan at this point. The Packers have potential but still a lot to prove and with a tough schedule. And that’s about it.

For the Vikings, by DVOA metrics they have the tenth easiest future schedule right now after playing the eighth most difficult. It’s probably not outlandish at this point to think that if the Vikings win their next two games (Jets, at home vs. Detroit after a bye-week of rest) they won’t lose their first place spot in the division the rest of the season.

The Vikings schedule after the Lions includes the Rams, Colts, Jaguars, Titans, Bears, Falcons, Cardinals, Bears. That’s eight games against teams not expected to make the playoffs this season and none of them currently with winning records. And the Vikings should have T.J. Hockenson back for all these games as well.

Depth of Reality

The 2022 Vikings didn’t get much respect, despite going 13-4, for a variety of reasons. First, they had a negative point differential for the season- which is difficult to do with a 13-4 record. But that reflected the fact that most of their wins were by narrow margins, and they got blown out in their losses. They also didn’t beat any good teams. Other advanced metrics like DVOA also pointed to a team much more fragile than its record would indicate.

The 2024 Vikings so far are a different story. They are getting respect (although some doubters remain) because unlike 2022, they’ve dominated good teams. And in addition to having the best record at 4-0 (tied with the Chiefs), they also have the best point differential and DVOA as well. Both offense and defense are ranked in the top five and Kevin O’Connell and Brian Flores are getting heaps of praise around the league.

Some will remain skeptical about whether the Vikings are for real or not, but there isn’t much to point to as indicators that their performance so far has been flukey or unsustainable.

A Special Season

A couple weeks ago, Harrison Smith spoke about this season feeling special. Aaron Jones also said that while he’s been on some good teams, this Vikings team felt special to him as well. And now even outside TCO Performance Center people are beginning to talk about the potential for a special season for the Vikings.

Aaron Rodgers, in his appearance this week on the Pat McAfee Show, talked about former teammate Aaron Jones in glowing terms. But he also talked about Jones, referencing Kevin O’Connell’s recent comments about Jones, as a ‘glue guy’ or a leader that brings players together in the locker room, and how when your glue guys are also your best players and great human beings, you have a chance to do something special.

And there’s former defensive end Chris Long, son of Howie, who won back-to-back Super Bowls with the Patriots and Eagles in 2016-2017 seasons talking about how the Vikings are for real and ‘there’s something special going on there.”

All this sentiment isn’t exactly scientific and could prove to be ephemeral, but I include it because players tend to have a pretty good read on who’s playing well and who isn’t -beyond the box scores and stats.

The fact that the Vikings’ performance so far is broad based and backed by good coaching- KOC and Flores seem like the best two coordinators and play callers in the league right now- adds to the feeling that this isn’t just a flukey early season flash-in-the-pan, but rather something that can be sustained throughout the season- and post-season.

We’ll see.

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