Jets @ Vikings in London: A Preview

The Minnesota Vikings cross the pond for an 8:30am Sunday morning (central time) matchup against the New York Jets quarterbacked by our old friend Aaron Rodgers. This is technically a home game for the Vikings, who are undefeated (3-0) in London games.

The Vikings are also 4-0 this season and playing arguably the best football in the league right now, despite letting the Packers turn a blowout into a closer game in the end last week. The Jets are 2-2 and coming off a disappointing loss to the Broncos at home.

Let’s take a look at the matchup starting with some recent background on the Jets.

The Not-So-Sweet Smell of Dysfunction Emanating from the Jets

The New York Jets have struggled for about the last fourteen years since they last made the AFC Conference final in 2010. But in recent years they’ve drafted well picking up Sauce Gardner and Garrett Wilson in the same draft (2022) and building a top defense under head coach Robert Saleh. But they couldn’t figure out the quarterback position and so decided to go all in for an aging Aaron Rodgers to take them to the promise land. That roll of the dice came up snake-eyes last season as Rodgers went down with a season-ending Achilles injury before he completed his first pass as a Jet. That led to another sub-.500 season for the Jets but continued high expectations for this season and Rodgers’ return.

But so far the Jets aren’t looking like a contender, despite a top five defense. They’re 2-2 with wins over the lowly Patriots and Titans, while getting beat soundly by the 49ers and most recently coming up short against the lowly Broncos.

The issue is that the Jets’ offense hasn’t been clicking outside of the Patriots game and the sluggish start with a healthy Aaron Rodgers has Robert Saleh’s head coaching seat starting to get warm. It hasn’t been all his fault, but he is the head coach and gets the heat for underperforming expectations in an unforgiving New York media market. It’s not a dumpster fire by any means, but there are some flaps that have come to the fore and Saleh has been a bit terse in his press conferences this week.

The season didn’t start well for the Jets as edge rusher Hassan Reddick, whom the Jets acquired last season in trade, held out for a new contract after not reaching a new deal with the Jets. Talks appear to be at a stalemate. Reddick was supposed to be a key pass rusher for the Jets this season. Getting beat soundly by the 49ers to start the season didn’t help and last week’s loss to the Broncos at home in the rain hasn’t improved the mood at 1 Jets Drive. The Jets have struggled with penalties and with Rodgers and his receivers being on the same page. Rodgers often looks frustrated on the field between miscommunications, drops, sacks, and penalties.

This past week, a flap opened up because Rodgers’ hard cadence appeared to be causing Jets players to false start. Robert Saleh’s initial response was that they needed to be less aggressive with cadence, which elicited a, “that’s one way to handle it… or you could hold guys accountable” response from Rodgers. At the same time, wide receiver Garrett Wilson expressed displeasure with what he called his more limited route tree this season, which didn’t appear to please Robert Saleh when asked about it at his press conference this week.

Rumors have also been swirling that the Jets are the leading contender to trade for Davante Adams, rumored to be available for trade from the Raiders, to further add to the Rodgers-based gamble offensively for the Jets. In addition to Rodgers, who turns 41 in December, the Jets also signed Nathanial Hackett as offensive coordinator and wide receiver Allen Lazard, both of whom worked with Rodgers in Green Bay. It remains to be seen how desperate the Jets are for a potential playoff run, and whether they’re willing to double-down again on Rodgers by bringing in another of his former teammates. So far Rodgers hasn’t produced much with what he has- which includes Garrett Wilson, Mike Williams, Allen Lazard, Tyler Conklin at tight end and Breece Hall at running back. In addition to the penalties and being out of sync, the Jets have also suffered from a mediocre offensive line, which is without starting right tackle Morgan Moses. Rodgers got hit over a dozen times against the Broncos and was sacked five times. He injured his knee on what appeared to be a fairly routine sack, which has to be worrying for the Jets brass- especially after losing Rodgers all of last season.

So, with all that and a tough slate ahead (Vikings, Bills, at Pittsburgh), the pressure is mounting on the Jets to show their dice roll in acquiring Rodgers is going to pay off. Knocking off the undefeated Vikings and former Jet Sam Darnold in London on Sunday would go a long way toward easing the pressure on Robert Saleh and Company, but a poor showing may well exacerbate the feeling that the Rodgers gambit may end up another fiasco. Rodgers himself doesn’t appear to be stressed about it off the field, but Saleh does.

A Look at the Matchup

So what does all of that mean for the game on Sunday? It could mean a Jets team desperate for a win to put their season right and pulling out all the stops to do so, or it could mean a Jets team that struggles against a good team in the Vikings and isn’t able to rally the troops. So far the Jets are 2-2 after facing only one good team in the 49ers. The 49ers game was never really in doubt in the second half, as the 9ers mounted a 26-7 lead late in the third quarter before the Jets narrowed the winning margin to 32-19 with a touchdown in the final minute.

Jets Defense

The strength of the Jets right now is their defense, which ranks second in yards allowed and fifth in points allowed. Their pass defense in particular has been impressive, as they rank first in net yards per pass attempt allowed at just 4.2. Playing against Will Levis, Jacoby Brissett, and Bo Nix the last three games probably helps in that regard, but there is no question the Jets have probably the most formidable duo of outside cornerbacks in the league right now with Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed. Their starting linebackers are also playing very well, particularly in pass coverage.

The Jets have also been getting to the quarterback, despite not having top talent on the edges. They have generated pressure on 40% of opponent dropbacks despite having one of the lower blitz rates (25%) in the league so far. Quinnen Williams and Javon Kinlaw could be problems for the Vikings’ interior offensive line, but I’d be surprised if the Jets got much pressure off the edges.

The biggest weakness in the Jets defense is stopping the run. They rank 20th in yards per carry allowed at 4.6, and are tied for the fifth-most 10+ yard runs allowed (17) over four games.

Vikings Offense

I would expect the Vikings, given the strength of the Jets defense, to lean into their run game with Aaron Jones and Ty Chandler. Maintaining a physical ground game could soften up the Jets pass defense and create more favorable passing situations for Sam Darnold.

I would also expect the Vikings to challenge the Jets defense in the passing game as well. While they have two good outside corners, their slot corner, Michael Carter II, is not that good and I would expect Darnold to target him a fair amount and for KOC to find ways to get Justin Jefferson matched up against him. The Vikings have as formidable a receiver group as the Jets will have faced this season, and I expect that between Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Jalen Nailor, Sam Darnold will have receivers open at times for some down field shots as well.

Jets Offense

Offensively, the Jets have plenty of weapons around Aaron Rodgers from receivers Garrett Wilson, Mike Williams, and Allen Lazard to all-purpose running back Breece Hall and former Viking Tyler Conklin at tight end. The problem and reason they’re the 22nd ranked offense with the 22nd ranked passing yards per attempt and 27th yards per rushing attempt is that a month into the season, they’re still out of sync in the passing game and with RT Morgan Moses out and facing tougher defenses lately, pass protection has been more of an issue.

The Broncos blitzed the Jets a lot last week with success, so whether the Jets offensive line has improved their communication and response to blitzes and stunts remains to be seen. I suspect Rodgers will opt for a dink-and-dunk approach in the passing game to combat the Vikings’ blitz attack, but whether that works or not remains to be seen.

Rodgers also talked about needing to run the ball well against the Vikings, but the Jets are ranked 27th in yards per carry and the Vikings’ defense is ranked second. I’d be surprised if the Jets were able to get much traction in their run game, which would put a lot of pressure on Rodgers to deliver in unfavorable passing situations.

Lastly, the Packers had some success with the Vikings defense last week using tempo, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Jets tried to do the same.

Overall, outside the Patriots game, the Jets offense has been averaging around 260 total yards per game and against more formidable defenses (49ers, Broncos) has averaged just 14 points. It would seem unlikely for the Jets to break from that pattern against the Vikings’ 4th ranked defense, but we’ll see.

Vikings Defense

I would expect Brian Flores to focus first on shutting down the Jets running game and making them one-dimensional, then pressuring Rodgers in unfavorable passing situations with the expectation that the Vikings win most of those.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Vikings used Josh Metellus more in the slot on Sunday against the 6’5”, 227-pound Allen Lazard, as a big nickel instead of Bryon Murphy Jr. Metellus is also a better blitzer and is better in run defense. Neither of the the Jets’ backs have graded well so far in pass protection, so challenging them in that role makes some sense too.

30 of the 41 quarterback pressures the Jets have allowed so far have been allowed by the Jets’ tackles or running backs, so challenging them off the edge and with blitzers makes a lot of sense. And depending on how well the Jets backup tackle Olumuyiwa Fashanu holds up in pass protection, the Vikings may not need to blitz as much.

Lastly, the Jets haven’t turned the ball over much (just 3 so far), but when they have, they’ve lost. The Jets really need to win the turnover battle to have a chance of winning on Sunday, so whatever the Vikings’ defense can do to offset any turnovers by the offense will be helpful, as they did last week. Aaron Rodgers has the fewest turnovers and turnover-worthy plays in the history of the league, so getting him to suddenly be wreckless with the ball isn’t going to happen. But tips and drops, punches and sacks can and do lead to turnovers, so being aggressive in this way will help the Vikings’ cause as well.

PFF Matchup Charts

Below are the PFF matchup charts with 11 personnel on offense vs. nickel defense. Jalen Nailor and Brandon Powell split reps as the WR3 last week (Powell had a handful more), but I wouldn’t be surprised if Nailor earns more reps on Sunday and going forward. Nailor has a 75.1 overall PFF grade.

Bottom Line

The Vikings are 2.5-point favorites on the neutral site in London, with a 40.5-point over/under. My sense is that this could either be a close game if the Jets play well on both sides of the ball, or it could be a comfortable Vikings’ win if they don’t.

I’m skeptical the Jets will be able to put things together against a tough opponent in the Vikings, who will challenge them in the trenches on both sides of the ball with their ground game and blitzes defensively, and simply have an offense that is humming a lot better than the Jets’ so far this season and a defense that is performing at least as well.

I wouldn’t be surprised by a Vikings’ blowout or a close game if the Jets play well. I would be surprised if the Jets won comfortably, however.

We’ll see.

Follow me on X @wludford

Poll

The Vikings are 2.5-point favorites in London against the Jets. The Vikings will:

• 84%

  Win and cover the spread

  (22 votes)

• 7%

  Win but not cover the spread

  (2 votes)

• 7%

  Lose

  (2 votes)

26 votes total

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