Rams enter must win game against Packers at SoFi Stadium in Week 5
The Los Angeles Rams will play an important game at home against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday in Week 5. It will be the first time since 2018 that the Rams have played the Packers in Los Angeles. That’s also the last time that the Rams beat the Packers. The Rams have won the last 11 meetings played in Los Angeles with the Packers last win coming in 1966. Here are the keys to victory for making it 12 straight.
1. Tackle and Limit Explosive Plays on Defense
This has been an issue for the Rams defense all season, but it will be extremely important when going up against the Packers offense on Sunday. Despite being without Jordan Love in two of their games, Matt LaFleur has still managed to put out the most explosive offense in the NFL.
This week the Rams will go up against a Packers offense that leads the NFL in explosive plays.
The Packers lead the NFL in plays of 15 or more yards (37), 20 or more yards (24), and 30 or more yards (12).
Meanwhile, the Rams defense has allowed the most explosive plays…
— Blaine Grisak (@bgrisakTST) October 2, 2024
Wide receiver Jayden Reed ranks second in the NFL in yards after the catch per reception. In the run game, both Josh Jacobs and Emanuel Wilson rank inside the top-12 in yards after contact per attempt. The Rams have to be able to tackle in this game and limit the extra yards
2. Contain Packers run game
It’s going to be important for the Rams defense to force the Packers into some third-and-long situations. If the Rams can do that, Chris Shula can dial up some exotic pressures and really put pressure on Love in the passing game. However, to do that, they have to be able to stop the run.
Josh Jacobs is set to excel after contact against the Rams’ defense
Jacobs’ 239 yards after contact rank 5th most among RBs this season. LA ranks just 29th in yards after contact allowed to RBs, presenting a favorable matchup for Jacobs to thrive. pic.twitter.com/e2fxeSM6h5
— PFF GB Packers (@PFF_Packers) October 3, 2024
As mentioned earlier, the Packers run game is great at getting yards after contact. Additionally, they rank sixth in rush yards over expected per attempt and third in rushing yards per play. The Rams did sign Jonah Williams this week to add some size to the defensive line. They need to win up front to have a chance at slowing down the Packers offense.
3. Wide receivers have to win downfield
This isn’t a situation where the Packers offense is going to send extra bodies and leave holes open on the backend of the defense. The Packers like to rush with four and sit back in zone. They are going to run a lot of Cover 3, but mix in Cover 1, Cover 2, Cover 4, and Cover 6. The Packers are the only team in the NFL that mixes in five different coverages more than 13 percent of the time. They like to mix it up.
However, that doesn’t mean that the secondary can’t be exploited. The Packers defense ranks 28th in passing success rate. Again, the Packers are only going to rush four, but that will put pressure on the Rams wide receivers to read coverages and win down the field. If they can find ways to get open and the Rams offensive line can protect Stafford, this is a passing game that could have a lot of success. The Rams use a lot of motion and the Packers are allowing the third most EPA per pass and second most yards per pass against motion.
4. Force Packers to kick field goals
For once, it is not the Rams with the kicking issues. The Packers have the fifth-worst special teams DVOA which is brought down by their field goal unit which ranks last. Brayden Narveson missed two field goals last week and also missed in the first two games to start the season. In other words, in all but one game this year, Narveson has missed a kick. Last week against the Vikings, Narveson missed kicks from 37 yards and 49 yards.
The key here will be to force the Packers into those kicking situations. Defensively, the Rams rank 23rd in red zone touchdown percentage and are allowing 3.5 touchdowns per game which ranks 31st. It will be easier said than done, but if the Rams can get the Packers to kick field goals, they may end up leaving points on the field.
5. Make Jordan Love Uncomfortable
By the end of the game last week, Jordan Love started to settle in against a Vikings defense that blitzed the most in the NFL. However, it is worth remembering that that is a quarterback coming off of a knee injury and his movement could be less than 100 percent. The Rams defense did a good job bottling up Caleb Williams last week. They will need to do the same to Love on Sunday.
Under pressure, Love had the fourth-worst completion percentage over expectation last week and his -13.3 total EPA was the third-worst. The Rams may not be getting a lot of sacks, but they are creating pressure. Love threw three interceptions last week. If they can make him uncomfortable and force him into mistakes, they may be able to steal one before the bye.
