3 Major X-Factors vs Jaguars: Can the Colts end the Duval Curse?

Don’t Let Trevor Lawrence Get Into a Rhythm

Trevor Lawrence vs the Colts in Jacksonville has been a nightmare for the Colts in years past.

While the Jaguars franchise QB hasn’t been efficient thus far in 2024, finding his mojo vs this Colts Defense would make this game a lot tougher. So far he ranks out of 34 QBs:

• 22nd in Passing Grade BOTH vs Pressure and Kept Clean (PFF)
• 23rd in Pressure to Sack % (PFF)
• 27th in Expected Points Added per Dropback (NFL Next Gen Stats)
• 27th in Catchable Throw % (FantasyPoints)
• 31st in Off Target Throw % (FantasyPoints)
• 31st in Completion % Over Expected (NFL Next Gen Stats)
• 32nd in Adjusted Completion % (PFF)

This is certainly a struggling passing offense, in part due to Lawrence’s issues. But his supporting cast also hasn’t done him many favors:

• Highest Drop % (PFF)
• 6th Worst Time to Pressure (FantasyPoints)
• 6th Lowest Separation Yards (NFL Next Gen Stats)
• 14th Worst Pressure % Allowed (PFF)

The Jaguars Offensive Line at least might have turned a corner last week, allowing just 1 pressure vs the Texans. Bringing pressure back to Lawrence’s pocket is highly important, as despite his statistical struggles he can still make spectacular plays with the 9th Highest Big Time Throw % (PFF).

Dayo Odeyingbo and rookie Laiatu Latu will play a big role in this endeavour, as the backup rotational Edge rushers will be thrust in a large snap % with injuries to Kwity Paye, Samson Ebukam, and Tyquan Lewis. Odeyingbo is coming off a career high 7 pressures with 1.5 sacks vs the Steelers last week, while Latu has 9 pressures in the last 2 games along with 1 sack and a forced fumble.

In Coverage, the Colts will have to be wary of the deep ball. Trevor Lawrence has the 2nd highest Average Depth of Target in the NFL (11.1), behind only Anthony Richardson. He has the 6th highest Passing Grade on passes over 20 yards and is 6th in Quarterback Rating. The biggest threat downfield will be rookie 1st Round pick Brian Thomas Jr. The Former LSU Tiger leads the Jaguars in targets showing a lot of explosive big play ability. He ranks 16th in the NFL in Yards Per Route Run and is 10th in Deep Ball Grade.

The young Colts secondary of Safeties Nick Cross and Julian Blackmon with Corners Jaylon Jones, Samuel Womack III, and Dallis Flowers will need to be wary of his deep routes, as well as the rest of the receiving threats like Christian Kirk and a possibly returning Evan Engram.

Frankly, the Colts cannot let Lawrence and this struggling passing Offense get going, especially on big plays with Brian Thomas Jr.

Continue Recent Run Stopping Success

The most consistently successful part of the Jaguars Offense so far has been the ground game. Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby have combined for 68 carries, 386, 5.7 Yards Per Carry, and 2 TDs. The Jaguars Yards per Rush is 2nd in the NFL, 13th in EPA/Rush, 9th in 10+ Yard Rush plays, 2nd in Rushing Yards Over Expected per Rush, and 1st in Yards After Contact per Carry.

The Colts infamously had a disastrous rushing Defense performance in the first game and a half of the season vs the Texans and 1st half vs the Packers. But the Colts Rushing Defense has vastly improved since then.

Part of this could be attributed in the 2 bad rushing Offenses the Colts have faced in the Bears and Steelers, but part of it could be attributed to strong games by Zaire Franklin, EJ Speed, Nick Cross, and Grover Stewart in stopping the run and blowing up blocks.

If the Colts recent run defense success continues against this tough matchup on the ground, it will go a long way in making the Jaguars Offense one dimensional. Tackling efficiency will be at a premium, with the Jaguars rushing duo able to do a lot of damage after the contact. Both of the Jaguars top backs are currently dealing with shoulder injuries and have had limited practices this week, so time will tell how healthy they will be on Sunday too.

Attack Through the Air… Irregardless Of Who Is At QB

If there is a weak spot of the Jaguars defense, it is their Passing Defense. So far they rank per NFL Next Gen Stats:

• 26th in Passing TDs Allowed (7)
• 32nd in Interceptions (0)
• 31st in Passing Yards Per Game
• 30th in Yards Per Passing Attempt Allowed
• 30th in EPA/Pass
• 28th in Sack %
• 30th in Pressure %
• 24th in Time to Pressure
• 32nd in Yards After the Catch Allowed
• Tied 29th in Average Target Separation

The Jaguars Defense has yet to generate any turnovers in 2024 and has allowed the 4th highest scoring % on drives and 3rd most points in the NFL. Their top 3 safeties have been particularly egregious in pass coverage, with Andre Cisco, Antonio Johnson, and Darnell Savage each have pass coverage grades of 43.6-53.1, and only Linebacker Foyesade Oluokun has a grade over 66.5 of their top 11 players in coverage snaps.

The Jaguars pass rush has struggled in consistency, with Josh Hines-Allen as the only pass rusher with a grade over 61 (87) among their 8 players with 30+ pass rush snaps so far in 2024. Neutralizing Josh Hines-Allen from impacting either Flacco or Richardson defangs the Jaguars pass rush considerably, and the Colts Offensive Line has been quite stout as a unit in 2024 so far.

Richardson or Flacco should take advantage of the Jaguars issues in pass rush, run coverage, and tackling by distributing the ball to WRs Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, and Alec Pierce, who are each in the midst of solid years.

Amongst 91 qualifying WRs, these 3 rank:

• Receiving Grade: Josh Downs 15th, Alec Pierce 20th, Michael Pittman Jr. T35th
• Yards Per Route: Josh Downs 9th, Alec Pierce 17th, Michael Pittman Jr. 26th
• Drop %: Alec Pierce Tied 1st, Michael Pittman Jr. Tied 52nd, Josh Downs Tied 60th
• Catch Rate Over Expected: Alec Pierce: 12th, Josh Downs Tied 37th, Michael Pittman Jr. Tied 52nd
• Contested Catch %: Josh Downs Tied 1st, Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce Tied 33rd
• Yards After The Catch: Josh Downs 27th, Michael Pittman Jr. Tied 50th, Alec Pierce Tied 78th
• EPA per Target: Alec Pierce 8th, Josh Downs 14th, Michael Pittman Jr. 74th

Maximizing Alec Pierce’s deep ball abilities, Josh Downs’ After the Catch and route running abilities in the slot, and Michael Pittman Jr’s size and well rounded skillset at a variety of depth should be of the utmost importance. Especially with Jonathan Taylor out or limited due to a high ankle sprain, the passing game will likely be at a higher volume than normal. The Jaguars do have a solid run defense as well, thus contributing even more so to a likely higher pass rate vs Jaguars.

Should the Colts top 3 playmakers get the ball in their hands consistently, they have some very choice matchups to do some damage.