Giants-Seahawks: What to expect when the Giants have the ball

The 1-3 New York Giants travel to Seattle to play the 3-1 NFC West division-leading Seattle Seahawks this Sunday. New York has lost six of its last seven matchups against Seattle, with the Giants lone victory coming in 2020 when Colt McCoy beat Russell Wilson at Lumen Field.

The two teams played in each of the last two seasons, and the Giants have collectively lost 51-16. Seattle is favored by 6.5 points, and the Over/Under is 43.5 points. The Giants do benefit from extended rest. They lost 20-15 to the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday Night Football, and the Seahawks are on a short week; they lost 42-29 in Detroit on Monday Night Football in Week 4.

Pete Carroll is no longer the head coach of the Seattle Seahawks. Mike Macdonald has assumed the reins and is attempting to replicate the dominant defense he coached in Baltimore over the last two seasons.

However, injuries have affected his defensive unit. The defense was without the following players in Week 4 against the Detroit Lions:

LB Uchenna Nwosu
LB Jerome Baker
EDGE Boye Mafe
DT Byron Murphy II
DT Leonard Williams

Safety Julian Love played 28 snaps before exiting the game. It’s still early in the week, but here’s the injury report on Wednesday:

Three former Giant defenders find themselves on the list. Nose-tackle Jonathan Hankins has played 117 snaps on the season for Macdonald, and he did not practice because of a personal issue. Leonard Williams and Julian Love were both limited.

An injury to track is linebacker Tyrel Dodson, who played 100% of the team’s snaps in Week 4. Weak-side linebacker Jerome Baker may be healthy against the Giants (hamstring, limited practice on Wednesday), but, in general, the linebacking corps of Seattle is exploitable.

Statistics

The Seattle Seahawks have just three takeaways on the season. The Baltimore Ravens tied for the league lead last season in defensive takeaways under Macdonald. Baltimore shared that top honor with the vaunted defense of the New York Giants. Here are other statistics that give the Giants an idea of Macdonald’s identity through four games:

EPA: 8th (Pro Football Reference)
Points Against: 17th (85)
Yards allowed: 8th (1135, 283 PG)
Passing yards allowed: 7th, (670, 167 PYPG)
Rushing yards allowed: 14th, (116.3 RYPG)
Plays run: 15th (241)

Seattle is the fifth-highest penalized team in the league. Second-year star cornerback Devon Witherspoon is guilty of a defense-leading four penalties. Right guard Anthony Bradford leads the team with seven penalties. They rank fifth in missed tackles (30 through four games).

Seattle has blitzed on 23.9% of plays, placing them middle of the pack at 15th in the league. They rank third in hurry rate (13.4%) and first in pressure rate (35.9%). The imbalance between their blitz and pressure rate isn’t based solely on their talent. A few variables contribute to Seattle’s high-pressure rate.

For starters, blitz rate constitutes five or more rushers, and Seattle relies heavily on simulated pressure. For those new to the site, a simulated pressure is a four-man pressure with one non-traditional pass rusher “blitzing” with a traditional pass rusher dropping into coverage. Here are a couple of Seattle simulated pressures from the Lions’ game:

The goal of simulated pressure is to waste blockers and manipulate protections while harassing the quarterback with just four rushers and playing seven in coverage. It has proliferated around the NFL over the last decade or so, and Giants defensive coordinator Shane Bowen uses it often.

Secondly, and maybe more indicative of the high-pressure rate, are the Seahawks’ past opponents through four weeks. Seattle opened the season against rookie quarterback Bo Nix at home. Seattle then traveled to New England and played a beat-up offense led by Jacoby Brissett before hosting the Skyler Thompson led Miami Dolphins.

The Seahawks allowed just 43 points through the first three weeks, and Detroit scored 42 on their beat-up squad in Week 4.

Boye Mafe, who missed the Detroit game, leads the team with 17 pressures. Second-year EDGE Derick Hall has 13 pressures, and Leonard Williams has 11 (in three games).

Giants’ game plan

So much of this game plan is contingent on the injuries for both teams. Seattle played mostly a second-team defense against Detroit, which only rushed for 116 yards but seemingly did so at will when necessary. Jahmyr Gibbs averaged 5.6 yards per carry, and DUO rushing was a massive problem for Seattle’s front:

The above play is condensed DUO with WR-insert — something the Giants run. Although power and pulling seem to give the Seahawks trouble, Detroit also succeeded on the few inside zone runs they attempted:

Many may attribute the struggles to the injuries up front—it’s a plausible and logical assertion—but the troubles fitting the run were evident before Week 4. The Patriots rushed for 185 yards against Seattle. Seattle struggles to fit the run, and the linebackers are the impetus for the issue.

Rookie fourth-round pick out of UTEP, Tyrice Knight, joins Dodson as the linebacker if Baker remains out. Neither player is keen on fitting the run when gaps are being exchanged (power/gap) or on DUO runs (power without the puller).

Over-pursuit and misreads on tape make the ally defenders a priority with their tackling. When Macdonald plays two high coverages (Cover-2, Cover-4/Quarters, Cover-6), more of a burden is placed on the linebackers, and Seattle is frequently either even or -1 in the box. If Malik Nabers is healthy, Seattle will likely play two high and have Riq Woolen — a very talented/long cornerback — shadow Nabers.

The Nabers’ effect will take hold; a quick, efficient passing attack underneath will help the Giants sustain drives as they attempt to play mistake-free football. Wan’Dale Robinson should have plenty of targets, as he sees Witherspoon often when the Giants are in 11-personnel. Witherspoon is a dangerous cornerback, as the Giants found out in Week 4 last season.

New York will run majority 11 personnel, but only a slight majority. Expect 12 and 21 personnel to run the football against this front until they can effectively stifle the Giants’ rushing attack, which devalues the play-action passing game. I would be more optimistic with this approach if Dallas didn’t just shut the Giants down on the ground after being historically bad through the first three weeks.

The Giants should try more power-gap runs with backside pulling guards or counter runs — which we saw one play of in Week 4. The Giants should be able to hold up in pass protection against the defensive front **knocks on wood**. Boye Mafe is an explosive talent who is questionable for this game, along with former Giant Leonard Williams.

Derick Hall on the edge and Jarren Reed are both quality plays, with the latter being a savvy veteran who still has some quickness from the three-technique. Edge defender Dre’Mont Jones also receives a hefty snap-share. Jones is a 281-pound edge defender. If Seattle struggles to fit DUO early in the game, expect Macdonald to move either Jones or Leonard Williams to the tight end side as a 6-technique; they will try and make Chris Manhertz’s already tough assignment very difficult.

When in 11 personnel, the Giants must be conscious of Witherspoon in the slot. When the slot is condensed, Macdonald often sends him as the fourth rusher on simulated pressure. Witherspoon may come to the Over front (three-technique) side with the edge and three-technique slanting away from him to provide a clear ally or a one-on-one matchup against the running back. B-Gap pressure from the weak-side linebacker is also to be expected on those four-man rushers.

If Nabers does not play, safety Rayshawn Jenkins will be active around the box. If Love is inactive, K’Von Wallace and Cobe Bryant should be the other safeties.

The Seahawks were one of the NFC West teams that derisively boasted about Seattle’s game plan against Daniel Jones last season:

Seattle has a different coach and system, but a double move like we saw against Dallas could work against Seattle if Jones receives the pockets he’s experienced over the last three weeks.

Final thoughts

The Giants should be rested heading into this game. Hopefully, they’ll receive some secondary pieces back, and Nabers will pass the concussion protocol. Still, Seattle is a difficult place to play, and the Giants may struggle to contain the Seahawks offense, which may put the Giants’ offense in catch-up mode. New York can win this game if it plays mistake-free football, establishes the run, controls the clock, and keeps Geno Smith on the sideline. The Giants must also score touchdowns and not rely too much on their kicker’s feet. Efficiency is key in this offense, and efficiency is difficult to maintain. I have Seattle covering the spread.