Giants at Seahawks Week 5: What to expect when Seattle has the ball

The New York Giants will travel across the country to take on the Seattle Seahawks in Week 5.

The Giants have had a rocky road on their way to a 1-3 record. They seemed to be on the rise following a painful opening week loss, only to fall to the Cowboys on Thursday Night Football in Week 4. The Seahawks, meanwhile, lead the NFC West and boast both a strong offense and a defense that’s resembled the vaunted Legion Of Boom at times.

In an added wrinkle to the game, Giants fans will remember that offensive coordinator Mike Kafka was a finalist to be the Seahawks’ new head coach. Former Ravens’ defensive coordinator Mike McDonald was hired instead, and the Seahawks asked permission to interview Kafka for the offensive coordinator position. The Giants blocked the interview request, leading the Seahawks to hire Ryan Gubb.

Let’s see what the Giants can expect from the Seahawks’ new offense.

Stats that matter

(Note: Ideally, EPA should be positive on offense and negative on defense)

Seattle’s Pac-12 influence

Before we talk about things like individual matchups and opportunities for the Giants’ defense, we need to look at the basics of Seattle’s new offensive scheme.

And while the Pac-12 is, for all intents and purposes, defunct as a college football conference, it’s legacy lives on. And one of the places in which it survives is in Seattle where offensive coordinator Ryan Gubb is calling the offense. Gubb didn’t have to travel far when he was hired by the Seahawks, considering he spent the previous two seasons as the offensive coordinator of the Washington Huskies.

The Seahawks’ offense isn’t a carbon copy of the offense Kalen DeBoer and Gubb ran with the Huskies, but there are certainly some similarities.

The first principle is that both offenses share is that they’re based in simplicity. That isn’t to say that the Seahawks’ offense is simplistic, because it very much isn’t. However, they don’t achieve complexity through a wide array of personnel groupings and formations. Instead, a lot of their offense looks similar and complexity comes with what happens after the snap.

Like the Washington offense, Seattle’s offense makes heavy use of bunch sets to a variety of effects. They also seek to combine horizontal and vertical plays to stress the defense in multiple ways and create opportunities for explosive plays.

Seattle’s running game is built around outside zone principles, ideally using RB Kenneth Walker’s speed and agility to stress the opposing defense horizontally. That forces defenses to defend the perimeter and allows the offense to use motion and pulling linemen to create numbers advantages on the play side. Their rushing attack has been hampered by Walker’s injury and while Zach Charbonnet is a good back, he is much more of a downhill battering ram than a slashing speed threat. The Seahawks used quick passes to the outside to supplement their perimeter run game. The combination of off-tackle runs and passes to the outside are designed to get defenses flowing laterally and also force them to play downhill while also spreading defenders out.

Those lateral plays are called with the intention of opening up opportunities down the field.

Geno Smith still has a strong arm and is one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the NFL at the moment. Allowing him to attack vertically not only takes advantage of his best qualities (not to mention those of his receivers), but it also makes the defense pay for playing downhill on their underneath and running game.

This is where Seattle’s use of bunch sets comes back into play. Bunch sets are useful for putting potential blockers in a tight group for off-tackle runs, as well as putting blockers in position for wide receiver screens. Likewise, they can be used to prevent man coverage defenders from getting hands on receivers as they execute quick routes to the outside. Both the Seahawks and Huskies also use their bunch sets to facilitate deep shots. It can be difficult for defensive backs to disrupt receivers out of bunch sets, while also making it easier for the offensive coordinator to scheme traffic and separation down the field.

Taken as a whole, the Seahawks offense doesn’t do anything revolutionary or wildly out of the ordinary. However their blend of simplicity and complexity has made it relatively easy for their players to pick up while having enough permutations and stressors that it’s tough for opponents to defend.

The Seahawks many-headed monster

The Giants’ defense performed admirably against the Cleveland Browns, and did enough to win against the Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys. However, the Seahawks have as good a collection of skill position players as any team in the NFL when healthy.

Their starting 11-personnel package looks like this:

WR – D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Jaxson Smith-Njigba
TE – Noah Fant
RB – Kenneth Walker III (or Zack Charbonnet)

They don’t stay in 11-personnel packages exclusively, and we’ll likely see tight ends AJ Barner or Pharaoh Brown in 12-personnel sets. All told, the Seahawks have 11 different players who’ve been targeted through the air. However, it’s the players who make up their starting 11-personnel package are the core of their offense and it’s certainly a solid core.

Metcalf and Fant bring a rare blend of size and speed, while Lockett and Smith-Njigba are good route runners with great short-area quickness. Walker, meanwhile, is a well-rounded back with speed, quickness, power, vision, contact balance, and receiving upside.

The Giants will have their work cut out for them when it comes to scheming match-ups. The Giants will almost certainly ask second-year cornerback Deonte Banks to travel with Metcalf. It isn’t an ideal matchup and Banks has struggled when matched up against the top receivers in the NFL. However, Banks is also the only defender the Giants have who could match up with Metcalf’s size, power, and raw speed.

And even with Banks having an elite physical profile for a cornerback, Metcalf is still taller, bigger, stronger, and faster.

The question will be how often the Giants give Banks help over the top to contain Metcalf. DK is the Seahawks’ deep threat and the Giants can’t afford to allow the Seahawks to beat them over the top. However, devoting two defenders to taking away Metcalf on every play could compromise their defense elsewhere and allow Smith-Njigba, Lockett, Fant, or Walker to run wild.

Complicating matters further, the health of the Giants’ secondary is still a question. Both Dru Phillips and Adoree’ Jackson were out with calf injuries last week, and neither practiced on Wednesday. If they are out or limited, that could put Nick McCloud and Cor’Dale Flott in charge of containing Lockett and Smith-Njigba, a pair of matchups that would likely favor the Seahawks.

Opportunities on the offensive line

The Seahawks have a well-schemed offense with dangerous weapons at every position, as well as a quarterback who is capable of attacking all areas of the field.

It’s certainly a tough matchup for the Giants’ defense, and one that doesn’t favor them overall. However, there is one opportunity to tilt things in their favor and that’s along the line of scrimmage.

The Seahawks have fielded one of the weakest offensive line groups in the NFL through the first four weeks of the season. Seattle has ranked just 29th in pass block win rate and have held up in pass protection for at least 2.5 seconds on just 49% of Geno Smith’s dropbacks. Likewise, they’ve prevented opposing defenses from disrupting their rushing plays (run block win) on just 67 percent of their runs.

From that perspective, it’s impressive that they’ve managed to produce an offense that’s ninth in scoring and fifth in total yardage.

That said, the weakness of their offense is an exploitable matchup for the Giants.

Most notably, the Seahawks are without starting right tackle Abe Lucas, who started the season on the PUP list and isn’t expected to be activated for this game. Instead, they’ll be relying on Stone Forsythe at RT, and while being “okay” as a starter is an achievement for a former 6th round pick, it isn’t ideal for an offense. The Giants will likely want to match Brian Burns up with Forsythe, taking advantage of Burns’ bend and burst round the edge to out-leverage the 6-foot-9 tackle. The Giants currently have the fourth-highest blitz rate in the NFL (granted, that’s still only 31.7%), and sending a DB or LB Micah McFadden against Forsythe on occasion could prove disruptive as well.

Interior offensive linemen Laken Tomlinson, Connor Williams, and Anthony Bradford are all mediocre at best pass protectors. That creates an obvious opportunity for Dexter Lawrence, who is coming off of a quiet game against the Dallas Cowboys. The Giants could also use rookie Elijah Chatman in TEX (tackle-end exchange) twists with an edge defender to disrupt the Seahawks’ blocking schemes and create athletic mismatches or free runs into the backfield.

The Seahawks have tended to be pass heavy on early downs this year, throwing the ball at the third-highest rate on first and second downs outside of garbage time*.

(*That’s leaving aside this past Monday Night Football as a potential outlier.)

It will be interesting to see if the Seahawks ere more toward the run at home with Kenneth Walker returning. Walker has been one of the most elusive backs in the NFL and is remarkably difficult to tackle in space. While “establishing the run” isn’t necessary to make play-action effective, the Seahawks may see value in forcing the Giants to run and defend the perimeter in the run game. Keeping the offense on (or ahead of) schedule will help to empower their quick passing game, or exploit the Giants’ defense if they play light boxes to defend the pass.

Final thoughts

All in all, the Seahawks’ offense presents a tough matchup for the Giants defense. They have more good receiving threats than most teams can comfortably defend, and a good quarterback to get them the ball. The key to the Giants defensive game plan will have to be controlling the flow of the game along the line of scrimmage. That will mean the edge defenders will need to do their jobs defending outside zone runs, while the entire front will need to effectively rush the passer when the opportunity arises.

It would also help for the Giants’ offense to score points and force the Seahawks offense off of their game-plan and to be even more pass-happy than they already are. Doing so will help neutralize Walker in the run game and give the pass rushers more opportunities to get after Geno Smith. Ultimately, the Giants can’t allow the Seahawks’ offense to get into a comfortable rhythm. If they do, it will likely be a long afternoon for the Giants.