Week 4 Colts Offensive Rankings and Analysis: Solid Effort

Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous Colts game and analyzing the numbers to form a sort of “what happened” narrative, as well as comparing the Colts against all other teams in the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference Season Stats. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com, Football Outsiders, and the nflFastR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.

Week 4 was the best offensive effort that the Colts have produced all year. Indy racked up 22 first downs, which is their most in a game this season. That led to an impressive 75.9% Drive Success Rate, which was the 10th best for the week.

There was an ill-timed 4 drive drought in the middle of the game, but 5 scoring drives and a field goal attempt is a pretty succesful day.

TEAM TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

Point-wise, the Colts had the 5th best PPD of the week.

They had the 6th best EPA per play, but only the 13th ranked Success Rate (adj TSR), which means they leaned on the explosive play to move down the field.

However, they went 8 for 15 on 3rd downs for an 8th best 3rd down conversion rate. Prior to week 4, the Colts were 10 out of 31 ranking 26th.

On the season, I have the offense at 14th in PPD and 16th in DSR so let’s call it 15th . . . in other words, ABOVE AVERAGE!

PASS TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

The combined passing of Richardson and Flacco ranks 6th in EPA efficiency and 11th in Passing Succes rate. Richardson has had good EPA efficiency before, but never a good PSR. For long term success, both are needed.

No turnovers and a lot of passing first downs (8th 1st/d) were the big difference this week. It’s tough to say what Richardson would have done if he hadn’t gotten hurt but he certainly started out very good.

On the season, I have team passing at 17th in EPA efficiency and 24th in PSR, which makes it tough to make a final rank. It’s somehwere in the middle, so I’ll say 20th.

RUSH TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

The run game took a step back this week, placing 19th in adj. Rush Success Rate. There certainly was a difference in rushing with the different QBs on the field (75% arsr with Richardson vs 22.8%). The Steelers probably weren’t concerned about Flacco as a run option and could better defend against JT, however there were only 8 runs with Richardson as QB and he was 2 of them, so its a pretty small sample.

On the year, I have the Colts run game as 8th best.

CONCLUSION & LOOK AHEAD

It was a solid offensive effort, even though it ended up a nail biter. I was not happy with the play calling on the final drive which basically gifted the Steelers another drive and an extra timeout.

In week 5, the Colts travel to Jacksonville to take on the fearsome Jaguars. . . at least fearsome to the Colts who are carrying an 0-9 losing streak against them at home. If the numbers mean anything, the Jags give up the 5th most points per drive of any defense, which corresponds to their 5th highest Drive Success Rate.

No defense has been worse against the pass than the Jags. A 32nd ranked defensive EPA/d and a 26th defensive Pass Success Rate indicates teams can pretty much slice them up with ease.

Rushing defense is a different story. Jacksonville has given up the 5th lowest Rushing Success Rate to opponents. They have the 3rd ranked defensive yards per carry (3.3) and the 9th lowest opponent conversion rate. Note to self: “Don’t run against the Jags”.

If Flacco starts, expect the Colt to go pass-heavy.