Aaron Donald’s case as a Hall of Fame player and the GOAT are only strengthened by current Rams defense
Coming into the 2024 season, there was little doubt that losing Aaron Donald would have a negative effect on the Los Angeles Rams defense. While the Rams could draft Jared Verse and Braden Fiske and it could be expected for Kobie Turner to take a step forward, replacing arguably the best defensive player of all-time.
With that being said, not many could have expected the current result which is one of the worst defenses in the NFL. As it stands, the Rams defense ranks 31st in the NFL in EPA and DVOA.
Again, taking a step back with Donald was expected. However, not many would have expected this. The Rams currently have a DVOA of 22.7 percent on defense which is not very good. That is tied as the 20th worst defense via DVOA through four weeks since 2002. The other two teams tied with the Rams are the 2012 New Orleans Saints and 2023 Chicago Bears who each started 0-4. In franchise history, only the 2008 Rams have been worse. If the Rams finish on this current pace, their 22.7 percent defense DVOA would be the fourth-worst defense of all-time. The 1982 Rams who were also three years removed from their Super Bowl appearance finished with a 23 percent defense DVOA and as the third-worst defense of all-time.
To say that the Aaron Donald effect is real would be an understatement. In the nine years with Donald, the Rams were the number two defense in EPA during that time period. There is something to be said about pass-rushers coming to play with Donald and then earning a big contract on another team afterwards only to not have the same level of production.
It wasn’t just Donald’s effect as a pass rusher on the Rams defense. Right now, a lot of the issues for the Rams are in the run game and the linebacker position. While the linebackers are struggling, some of that isn’t entirely their fault. The Rams are smaller on the defensive line which doesn’t bode well for a standard 3-4 base defense. Typically, teams will have a 1-tech that can eat double teams and potential blockers. This helps linebackers behind them.
Donald wasn’t a 1-tech, but he did consistently take on double teams and get attention from opposing double teams. Donald’s run defense was seen as the weaker aspect of his game and at one point his ability to defend the run was called average. However, with Donald the Rams defense went from allowing a -0.04 EPA per rush last season with a 37.5 percent success rate to allowing a 0.10 EPA per rush in 2024 with a 48.8 percent success rate.
Remember when Aaron Donald’s run defense was seen as average?
The Rams run D went from allowing -0.04 EPA per rush and 37.5% success rate with Donald last year to allowing 0.10 EPA per rush and a 48.8% success rate without Donald.
Nothing about 99 was average. pic.twitter.com/eHepVWFuFX
— Blaine Grisak (@bgrisakTST) October 1, 2024
Surprisingly, the Rams pass rush may not be the aspect of the defense that is struggling without Donald. The defense ranks first in the NFL in quarterback pressure rate through four weeks.
Donald may not be playing, but the current version of the Rams defense is still making a case for just how good he was. What’s even more interesting here is that a defense hasn’t had as much of a fall off after losing a great player as much as the Rams have after losing Donald.
Lawrence Taylor retired from football following the 1993 season. During 1993, the Giants finished with a defense DVOA of -1.7 percent. While the Giants took a step back without Taylor, they finished 1994 with a defense DVOA of 4.4 percent. That’s a difference of 6.1 percent.
The 1992 Philadelphia Eagles had a defense DVOA of -18.2 percent with Reggie White and droppd to -5.9 percent in 1993 without him for a difference of 12.3 percent. White left the Packers in 1998 with a -8.3 percent DVOA. In 1999, that went to a 2.5 percent DVOA for a 10.8 percent difference. JJ Watt wasn’t near the same player, but the Houston Texans actually improved from 2020 to 2021 without the former three-time Defensive Player of the Year winner.
If the current results were to hold, the Rams will have gone from a 3.4 percent DVOA in 2023 to a 22.7 percent DVOA in 2024. That’s a 19.3 percent difference. That’s seven points difference than when White left the Eagles after 1992.
After Donald retired, he was assuredly a lock as a first-ballot Hall of Fame player. That case has only been strengthened since and given the drop-off of the Rams defense this year without Donald, it also adds to his argument as the greatest of all time.
The Rams defense hopefully improves as the year goes on and the young players get more experience. Still, there’s no question that the team missed Donald along the defensive line.
