Week 3 Colts Defensive Rankings and Analysis: Bend don’t break

Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous Colts game and analyzing the numbers to form a sort of “what happened” narrative, as well as comparing the Colts against all other teams in the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference Season Stats. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com, Football Outsiders, and the nflFastR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.

The Colts’ defense gave up a lot of first downs to Chicago, but fortunately, the Bears had trouble converting that to points. A 71.4% Drive Success Rate isn’t a great offensive number, but it is by far the best Chicago has seen this season (wk 1 55%, wk 2 57%).

Chicago was moving the ball well, but Indy countered with 3 takeaways and a turnover downs. I think without those big plays, the Bears would have scored at least 10 more points and probably won the game.

TEAM TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

Again, thanks to the 3 takeaways and a goal line stand, the Colts held the Bears to the 11th lowest Points per Drive in week 3. Indy also held the Bears to the 7th lowest success rate (adj TSR) and the 9th lowest EPA per play. They even kept Chicago to the 11th lowest yards per play, which is impressive because that includes a no-time-left 44 yard hail-mary completion . . . on a 45 yard field.

Overall, the defense did their job. It wasn’t pretty and the Bears are not a good offense, so its nothing to get excited about, but even I can’t get upset when the opponent is kept to 16 points.

On the season, the Colts have the 17th ranked PPD against, which makes them look average. However, they also have the 28th ranked DSR against, which is more indicative of how bad they are at preventing teams from moving down the field. So, going forward, expect more bad than average.

PASS TOTALS

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Indy held Caleb Williams to below average numbers . . . just like every defense so far. Williams had the 12th lowest EPA per dropback and the 14th lowest Passing Success Rate. He was able to move the chains pretty well (11th highest 1st%), but the Colts forced him to make drive killing mistakes that kept points off the board (4 sacks, 2 INTs, lost fumble).

A better QB would have shredded this defense, but we didn’t play a better QB.

On the year, I have the Colts 21st against the pass (EPA/d).

RUSH TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

Indy shut down the Bears run game, giving up the 3rd lowest adj Rush Success Rate. The Bears couldn’t get first downs on the ground with the 3rd lowest rushing conversion rate off of an anemic 2.0 Yards per carry (2nd lowest).

On the season, I have the Colts run defense at 9th best (arsr).

CONCLUSION & LOOK AHEAD

Similar to the offense, the Colts’ defense has trouble with the pass but is very good with the run. That’s better than nothing, but if they continue to allow teams to pass against them, they won’t keep points off of the board for long.

The next test for the Indy defense is the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steeler offense scores fewer points than Indy landing at the 22nd spot for Points per Drive. They also have the 23rd ranked Drive Success Rate, so I am comfortable calling them a bottom third offense.

A lot of people are claiming that Justin Fields has been reborn in Pittsburgh and an impressive 8th ranked EPA per dropback would support that view . . . if it wasn’t for all of the other stats. In terms of passing success rate, Fields ranks 21st, so he is living off of the deep pass, but isn’t very good underneath. Why does that sound familiar? He abandons the pocket too much and isn’t throwing first downs or TDs (6th aa%, 25th 1st%, 24th TD%). Expect a big regression to his old self . . . hopefully this Sunday.

On the ground, the Steelers haven’t had much luck. They sport a 28th ranked success rate to go along with a 27th place EPA per carry. That should bode well for the Colts.

If the defense can keep a lid on the deep passes, I don’t see Pittsburgh putting up a lot of points. This could be a week for the defense to shine.