The Colts are playing the Steelers in what is expected to be a low scoring affair; finding value is tough, but there is money to be made.
This season, SB Nation has partnered with to give you a variety of articles and opinions on sports betting through the FanDuel platform. Last season, I offered 3 play prop/side market choices and picked one I would bet on at the end of the article. This season, we will focus purely on the ever-growing player prop markets and offer insight and analysis on 3 picks I like and pick one at the end to put $50 on. Over the course of the season, we’ll track the wins and losses of my final pick and see if we can finish in the profit.
The Colts are at home for the second week in a row and they are facing the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers. The Colts are currently 1.5 point underdogs.
Player Prop 1: Jonathan Taylor Over 17.5 Rushing Attempts (-145)
While this bet could be a bit dangerous if the Colts fall into an early hole, after 23 rushing attempts last week, I expect the Colts to ride the hell out of Jonathan Taylor. Richardson has proven through the first 3 weeks that he is too raw to be relied upon so the offense needs to live and die with Taylor. Taylor is a good player to bet on as he won the Colts the game last week with his incredible performance and has looked great to start the year. It will be very tough for Richardson to consistently move the ball against this front, but with a strong offensive line and Taylor at his best, they will have a chance. If I can figure that out, I’m sure the coaching staff can too, so hopefully they use him a lot.
Player Prop 2: Anthony Richardson Under 15.5 Completions (-120)
Richardson barely got over the 16 or more completion mark in his Week 2 matchup against the Packers and in his other two starts he combined for 19 completions. The Steelers have been the best defense in the NFL through the first three weeks and their pass defense has been incredible. Joey Porter Jr is playing like one of the best cornerbacks in football, as he’s only been targeted 6 times, which is the lowest of any player with 100+ coverage snaps so far this year. Unless Richardson gets a ton of checkdowns, it will be hard for him to consistently move the ball, especially with his technique limitations.
Player Prop 3: Michael Pittman Jr Under 3.5 Receptions (+245)
Pittman has struggled to start the season and this was highlighted in my article last week. His route running, effort and even his hands have been off. Last week against the Bears was his best performance so far with a 4 catch, 36-yard performance. It is clear that him and Anthony Richardson are not on the same page and their chemistry is not there yet. What doesn’t help is Pittman has a matchup against the toughest defense in the NFL right now and one of the toughest secondaries led by Joey Porter Jr. He might get locked down and not targeted much, especially if he’s on JPJ’s side.
My Pick: Anthony Richardson Under 15.5 Completions (-120)
Even though it means rooting against Richardson, I choose to look at it as hoping the Colts go with a run heavy approach with Taylor.
We lost our bet last week (Caleb Williams Under 211.5 passing yards) bringing us to 1-1 on the year, and we are down $56 through 3 weeks.
