Dissension in the ranks!
At last, the 2024 season can finally begin as the New York Giants take on the Dallas Cowboys.
It took four whole weeks for the Giants to get their traditional season opening game of with the Cowboys in prime time.
The Cowboys have had the Giants’ number in recent years, dominating this matchup over the previous three years. But it isn’t previous years, and right now these two teams seem much more evenly matched than they have in a long time — though the Giants are still 5.5-point underdogs at home.
And for the first time this year, there’s also a split amongst the Big Blue View staff in our picks. We’re entering uncharted territory, as we’ve all agreed in each of the first three weeks. And, of course, the Giants have done the opposite of what we expected in each of those weeks.
So what will happen this time? Will New York carry its momentum across the short week? Or will Dallas pick up where it left off the last time these two teams met and finally find its footing this year?
Tony DelGenio
As promised in my last post, I am picking Dallas to win to guarantee that the Giants actually win, since I am 0-3 for the season. There are good reasons to pick Dallas that have nothing to do with the fact that they always beat the Giants. Dru Phillips and Adoree’ Jackson, both with calf injuries, probably will not play. Nick McCloud may return from his knee injury. Deonte Banks has not been effective on an island against opposing WR1s. Who the heck is going to stop CeeDee Lamb, then, regardless of where he lines up? Getting pressure on Dak Prescott will help, but not if it requires blitzing half the time as Shane Bowen did last Sunday – 3 of Dak’s 4 TD passes have come against the blitz, and his only interceptions have been from a clean pocket. Dallas’ OL is not what it used to be, so maybe rushing four can be productive.
On offense, Daniel Jones is lucky that INT machine DaRon Bland is on IR with a stress fracture, but he still has to face Dallas’ pass rush. Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence have given Jones fits; this game could turn on whether the Giants’ new and improved OL can handle Dallas’ stunts and limit the damage from those two. The Cowboys’ interior defensive line is soft, and a path to victory for the Giants probably runs right up the middle, eating some clock to keep the ball out of Dak’s hands. Get the ILBs and safeties creeping up to stop an effective run game, add some RPOs, and maybe Malik Nabers can do some business against Trevon Diggs and Jourdan Lewis.
Still, CeeDee Lamb.
Pick: Cowboys
Chris Pflum
I said last week that I’m not going to pick the Giants until they can prove that they can consistently go out and win a game.
This week I’m picking the Giants to win.
Does that mean I saw enough against the Browns to satisfy my rule? Not really.
The team as a whole improved, but there were still red flags apparent in the Giants’ game last week that give me pause. On defense, the secondary struggles to deal with more than one threat at a time and the pass rush needed favorable conditions to finish. On offense, the passing game not only lived in the very short area of the field (the average completion traveled less than 10 feet downfield in the air), and could not take advantage when they got behind the defense. Likewise, there were still three separate opportunities for backbreaking turnovers despite the conservative play calling, but the Browns couldn’t take advantage of them.
But I’ve seen this movie before and I remember 2022 and 2023. I remember how a conservative offense, a defense that made enough plays, and opponents who hurt themselves while being unable to take advantage of the Giants’ mistakes led to wins. And those wins usually came in bunches.
I suspect that this is the part of the movie where the Giants catch better opponents at the right time and get nailbiter wins that they probably shouldn’t.
Pick: Giants
Nick Falato
The Giants can significantly change their season’s fortunes with a home victory against the Dallas Cowboys. The Giants set the single-game PFF pressure record against the Browns, recording eight total sacks. Shane Bowen’s defense found creative ways to employ a blitz-heavy Cover-1 (man, single-high) attack with exotic twists. Cleveland struggled in protection, and DeShaun Watson looked lost. Unfortunately for the Giants, the Cowboys have Dak Prescott,
Prescott is a more difficult quarterback to fool. New York has not beaten Dak Prescott since his rookie season (2016); the Giants have just one win over the Cowboys since that year (Week 17, 2020 vs. Andy Dalton; AKA the “Nate Sudfeld” game). For what it’s worth, over the last five games, Prescott averaged 265 passing yards with 11 touchdowns and 4 interceptions.
With a ball-control approach, the Giants can win this game and get back to five hundred. However, the Giants secondary will be challenged by Prescott and CeeDee Lamb. If New York is going to win, they have to force Dallas’ mistakes and have the offensive line continue with their competent execution in both phases. This game will be competitive and possibly high-scoring (higher than we’re used to seeing). I have Dallas winning in a close one.
Pick: Dallas
David Hartman
I desperately want to pick the Giants. They’re coming off a win where they played well for about 52 minutes, and the Cowboys are coming in off of two straight home losses where they fell way behind in the first half. The Cowboys have to be close to panic mode, and frankly, Dallas just isn’t anything close to a complete team this year. Not yet, anyway.
The recent history is so hard to ignore, however. Dallas has won six straight in the series, and 13 of the last 14, and in the two games last season, they outscored the Giants 89-17, including a 40-0 whitewashing at MetLife Stadium to open the season. 89-17! There could be a lot of rain, and maybe that helps the Giants since Dallas can’t run the ball, but I fear another game where Dallas brings its best, pressures Daniel Jones into a few mistakes, and is just too much for the Giants. Dak Prescott got hot in the second half last week and almost led his team to a big comeback win, CeeDee Lamb is overdue for one of his “unstoppable” games and the Giants have struggled vs No. 1 WRs. That combo is going to spell trouble for the Giants’ secondary. And if it’s a close game I’ll take the team with the kicker who can hit from the GW Bridge over a castoff who has missed some big kicks over the years. My heart says Giants, but I’ve got to be real.
Pick: Dallas
James Hickey
The best picking advice I can give is when you have two evenly-ish matched teams is to pick the most desperate one. And it is clear that the team with the star on this side of its helmet fits that description this week. But there are real factors working against the Cowboys that give pause to that theorem.
Dallas can not stop the run and have struggled to get their running game going. The defense has a new coordinator and a new system they are still trying to master. They are on a short week so getting these issues fixed is that much harder.
But what Dallas does best — throw the ball — was arguably the Giants biggest weakness coming into season and still is with the Giants likely to be missing two key pieces (CBs Adoree’ Jackson and Andru Phillips) Thursday night. Add the dominance the Cowboys have held over the Giants recently and being the most desperate team, I expect Dak Prescott to lead a late drive to steady the ship in Dallas.
Pick: Dallas
Valentine’s View
When RJ Ochoa of SB Nation’s Blogging the Boys and I were setting up this week’s Giants-Cowboys Crossover Preview podcast on YouTube, Ochoa sent me an interesting note:
“I think this might be the time the Giants finally get the Cowboys
“Dallas is really, really, really bad. And bordering on full quit territory.”
Now, I’m not sure about the second part of that statement. I do, though, know that I agree with the first part. The Giants have lost six straight and 13 of 14 games to Dallas. There have been blowouts. There have been close games the Giants could have, and sometimes maybe should have, won.
Someday, that has to change. It feels like this is an opportunity for that to happen.
The Cowboys are reeling after back-to-back losses at home. They are playing bad defense, 30th in the league in points allowed and last in rushing yards allowed. The offensive line doesn’t appear to be the dominant unit it was just a few seasons ago. Dallas is 29th in the NFL in yards per rushing attempt.
The Giants? After an 0-2 start, Sunday’s victory over the Cleveland Browns has provided a glimmer of hope. There are things to feel good about — the pass rush, the improved offensive line, two good weeks from Daniel Jones, the presence of Malik Nabers. If you’re willing to acknowledge it, you might even sense some optimism around the Giants.
As Ochoa said, it just feels like this might be the Giants’ time to get the Cowboys.
Pick: Giants (even though I should know better)
