Lions mailbag: How will Detroit’s defense look after all the injuries?

How will the Lions replace Derrick Barnes, Marcus Davenport, and (possibly) Alim McNeill? We answer in this week’s mailbag.

As we move into Week 4 of the Detroit Lions season, the team has hit its first significant hurdle. They got banged up on the road against the Arizona Cardinals and could be realistically missing at least five starters who played last Sunday.

Naturally, in this week’s mailbag, there were a lot of questions about how the Lions will respond. So let’s get into it.

Let’s start with the defense, and start with what the Lions’ front seven looks like when it’s healthy. Detroit’s base defense is typically some version of a 4-3, with the third linebacker either lined up off the ball or as an edge defender. That player is typically Derrick Barnes. The variations could look like any of the following:

Now, the Lions will be without Derrick Barnes and Marcus Davenport for a significant amount of time. The status of Alim McNeill is less clear, but it seems likely he misses at least one game. So how will the Lions deploy their front seven without those three? Well, we can first look to the second half against the Cardinals, where they were without Barnes and McNeill. And there were several of those snaps in which Davenport was not on the field. Here’s how that looked:

Opposite Aidan Hutchinson here you have Josh Paschal (the Davenport replacement) and Ben Niemann (the Barnes replacement). Toward the end of the game the Lions switched to Jalen Reeves-Maybin in the SAM linebacker position in replacement for Niemann.

In a more traditional 4-3 looks , the Lions often used Paschal as the sole EDGE opposite Hutchinson, while mixing in Kyle Peko, Mekhi Wingo, DJ Reader, and Levi Onwuzurike in between the two. Here are a couple of examples:

In short, Josh Paschal is about as close to a one-to-one replacement for Marcus Davenport as Detroit has—and Dan Campbell has said they’re going to lean on him more.

“This is going to be big for him. He’s going to take a load over there now,” Campbell said Monday. “And he played an outstanding game, by the way. He was another one, I thought he played really well yesterday, he was physical, continues to grow.”

It’s less clear how the Lions will fill the SAM position, but I would expect Niemann, Reeves-Maybin, and maybe even Trevor Nowaske to be in the mix. If Alex Anzalone is back, Detroit could always shift Jack Campbell into that role and have Malcolm Rodriguez be the MIKE, but Campbell wasn’t great in his limited time there last year.

And as a side note, don’t be surprised if the Lions get a little help from their practice squad. Veteran Pat O’Connor had a strong preseason, and Campbell acknowledged Monday there was a reason they’ve kept him around.

“One of the reasons we got him and wanted him here is because we know that it’s just a matter of time before we’re going to need Pat, and it could be sooner than later.”

As for the offensive line, I think the only move that really makes sense is to slide Graham Glasgow at center and use Kayode Awosika at left guard. They could just plug Michael Niese at center, but he has yet to play an NFL snap on offense, and he repped at guard for the entire preseason.

This may sound like a cop out, but it probably depends on where their injury situation is at the deadline. No team is going to become sellers right now, with 14 games left, so it’s a bit pointless to come up with trade proposals now. Even though I like the idea of a Trey Hendrickson trade, the Bengals aren’t giving up on their season three weeks in.

If the only long-term injuries they’re dealing with are Derrick Barnes and Marcus Davenport, I don’t think becoming buyers is necessary. If their defensive line continues to get depleted, then you need to start thinking about it.

We’ve talked all offseason about how strong this team’s depth is. Now is the time they’re going to use it. Players like Paschal, Onwuzurike, Wingo, Peko, O’Connor, Isaac Ukwu, and Mitchell Agude all made the 69-man roster for a reason. I think the Lions will only utilize the trade deadline as an injury replacement if these reserves prove they can’t ball. I don’t know about you, but I was pretty impressed with how those players played in the second half without Barnes and McNeill.

I find these questions incredibly tough to answer, because there is a severe knowledge gap between me and the decision makers. I’m not a doctor, I don’t know the severity of the injury, I don’t know the likelihood of making the injury worse, and I don’t know how much pain Ragnow is dealing with. All I know is that the medical team should probably make the decision the is best in the long-term for Ragnow. They’ll need him in the winter.

As for Sione Vaki at safety, I would not expect him to take a single defensive snap all season. I did not see him rep once on defense all training camp, meaning he likely has not learned Detroit’s defensive scheme much, if at all. They’ve been too busy transitioning him to the running back position.

I just got done watching the Seahawks defense take on the Patriots offensive line, and they were a huge problem in terms of pass rush. They produced 21 pressures (per PFF), eight QB hits, and 3.0 sacks. But two major caveats: the Patriots offensive line is BAAAAAAD (28th in pass blocking grade, 32nd in pass block win rate), and New England actually dominated the trenches in the run game (185 rushing yards, 5.1 YPC).

So I think the Lions will likely try to go heavy on the run game early to set up the pass on play action. I know the Seahawks have been better on the ground in other games this year, but I think that’s where their vulnerability is. If they’re without Ragnow, it’ll be tough, but I’m not counting out the rest of the Lions offensive line.

I think the Lions will continue to elevate Allen Robinson from the practice squad two more times, and then I think it’s quite possible he eventually takes Isaiah Williams’ spot on the 53-man roster.

Let me explain: the Lions have made it abundantly clear that the WR-X position is important to them, and they don’t really want to put Kalif Raymond there. Patrick played 34 snaps to Raymond’s five last week. But they still elevated Robinson last week. Why? Because they need a versatile backup who can play every position. That isn’t Raymond, and that certainly isn’t Williams. If Jameson Williams or Patrick goes down, Detroit still wants a big-bodied, huge catch-radius option to stretch defenses deep.

This is the reason so many of us were hesitant to put Isaiah Williams on our 53-man roster predictions. He currently has no role on the team other than backup to the backup slot receiver. But at the time, the Lions simply didn’t have a depth receiver better than him. Now the Lions have two, so it wouldn’t surprise me if Isaiah Williams is eventually waived, with the Lions hoping he clears waivers to add to the practice squad.

I would not say that was accurate. I’m assuming Cardinals radio hosts were expecting the absolute worst given the injury situation at right tackle, but Hutchinson still had a pretty significant impact. Among all defensive players, Hutchinson’s eight pressures was only second to Myles Garrett in Week 3, and his 31.4 pass rush win rate was fourth. I get it. He only had two QB hits and 1.0 sack—that’s probably a win for the Cardinals overall. But considering Detroit was highly motivated to contain Kyler Murray over attacking him, I think Detroit accomplished what they wanted, too.