Giants vs. Cowboys Week 4 – What to expect when Dallas has the ball?

The New York Giants will take on the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday Night Football.

It isn’t necessarily a surprise that the Giants are carrying a 1-2 record into the game, nor is it surprising that the Giants are (as of this writing), 5.5 underdogs at home. What is a surprise is that the Cowboys are also 1-2.

The Giants are currently vibing on the ascent of rookie receiver Malik Nabers, as well as a dominant defensive performance against the Cleveland Browns in Week 3. Dallas, meanwhile is reeling after back-to-back losses. This would seem to be a battle between teams heading in different directions, but the rules tend to go out the window in divisional games.

The Cowboys still have one of the best quarterbacks in the NFC in Dak Prescott, and they’re very good at getting their offensive weapons the ball.

So what can the Giants expect when Dallas has the ball?

Stats that matter

Traffic patterns

The use of route concepts to create space for receivers is hardly new or in any way. However, the Cowboys are quite good at designing route concepts and leveraging them with personnel groupings (more on that in a bit). Likewise, Prescott’s ability as a passer and the caliber of their receivers makes even a bit of schemed separation enough.

Let’s take a look at a pair of plays where Dallas is able to get a receiver open despite being at a numbers disadvantage.

In this first play, Dallas starts with just one receiver on the play side compared to two Baltimore defenders. They send wide receiver Brandon Cooks from the strong side of the formation, where they have even numbers to the play side, bringing a defender in man coverage. That creates a 3-on-2, though the safety does drop into a deep half coverage, essentially giving the receivers one-on-one matchups.

The Cowboys are able to take advantage of the close quarters, using the combination of motion and a quick slant to force traffic between the defensive backs. It requires good timing between the receivers, not to mention precision route running on behalf of CeeDee Lamb, to execute without disrupting their routes. It pays off — at least initially — and the corner on Lamb is forced to delay opening his hips and transition to closing on the ball. Prescott hits Lamb in-stride for the reception and what should have been 2nd and goal from the Baltimore 8-yard line.

Fortunately for Baltimore, Lamb doesn’t hang onto the ball and they come away with the fumble and recovery.

The positive outcome (for the Ravens), however, doesn’t negate what Dallas did up until that point.

On this second play, Dallas is able to get wide receiver Jalen Tolbert wide open for the touchdown.

In this play we see Dallas go empty in a 3×2 set. Baltimore plays zone coverage here (though there appears to be pattern match man coverage rules on the tight end at the bottom of the screen). The result is a 7-on-5 advantage for the Ravens, giving them four defenders on the play-side and three on the top of the screen.

Theoretically, this scenario should heavily favor the Ravens, yet Dallas’ play design (and some good eye discipline from Prescott) gets them the touchdown.

The Cowboys run a three-man route combination, which appears to be a modified Dagger concept, on the bottom. The outside receiver (87, TE Jake Ferguson) runs a quick curl route designed to suck in the outside receiver and help create space underneath the intended receiver. Brandon Cooks, WR3 closest to the left tackle, runs a corner route into the endzone which draws coverage from both the slot corner as well as the safety.

None of the Ravens’ DBs are necessarily wrong. The tight end could be the checkdown, while the corner route looks like a shot to the endzone. However, the combination of routes effectively accounts for three defenders with two receivers. The third defender is accounted for by Dak Prescott, who looks off Tolbert and back toward the middle of the field. That effectively draws the underneath coverage to… Nobody.

Tolbert, the intended receiver, runs a slant-go route route, quickly getting behind the underneath receiver who was sucked down by Prescott’s eyes and finds plenty of open space in the endzone for the touchdown.

How can the Giants combat Dallas’ route combinations?

First, the Giants can (try to) disguise their coverage on any given play. Prescott is a smart and experienced quarterback, and Dallas understands how to use pre-snap motion to help expose coverage calls. However, many route concepts are called to counter specific coverages — or are read in different ways depending on the coverage. Disguising Cover 2 as Cover 4 or Cover 3 with a late rotation could disrupt the entire structure of the offensive play.

Likewise, the Giants will need to communicate effectively before and after the snap, as well as maintain their discipline in the face of misdirection, responsibility conflicts, and schemed traffic. The front end helped the back end in the previous game, but the Giants need to be wary of all-out aggression against the Cowboys. The secondary will need to hold up to keep the ball in Prescott’s hands in order to help out the defensive front.

Personnel packages

Once upon a time, you could get a pretty good idea of what play — at least generally — the offense was going to run based on their personnel package. Most teams would often line up in heavier (two back or two tight end) packages on first and second down, then switch to 11-personnel “spread” packages on third down if they needed to throw. Defenses obviously adapted, and it often led to the infamous “run-run-pass-punt” sequence. The received wisdom of the ages was turned on its head about a decade ago by the likes of Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan. McVay frequently uses spread looks to run, while Shanahan uses heavy looks to pass.

Mike McCarthy is from an older generation of coaches than the McVay Shanahan wonder kid generation*. However, he’s done a good job of going to school on his younger peers, as well as the data from stats nerds that underpins their decisions.

(*Yes, that’s a Ted Lasso reference, and yes I’m excited it’s coming back. But this is about football, not futbol.)

The Cowboys’ offense makes use of a wide variety of personnel groupings to manipulate opposing defenses and help facilitate their passing concepts. In fact, Dallas’ offense has the second most diverse set of personnel packages in the NFL, using eight (8) different packages in the first three weeks. They not only use 12-personnel (two tight end) sets on about a third of their plays, they also use two (or more) running backs on roughly 19% of their plays. At the opposite end of the spectrum, they also use packages with NO tight ends on 10% of their play and are one of two teams to use such formations more than five times this year (per NFL NextGenStats).

The Cowboys use the bigger bodies to not only block and create traffic in down the field, but also sneak them into coverage voids. For instance, tight end Jake Ferguson is tied with wide receiver Jalen Tolbert as Dak Prescott’s second most frequently targeted option despite missing Week 2. The wildcard in all of this is fullback Hunter Luepke, who’s played about 30 percent of Dallas’ offensive snaps. Luepke is a second year UDFA out of North Dakota State and might be best described as an ‘H-Back’, though he’s listed as a running back on their depth chart. He’s asked to line up as a running back, fullback, and as a tight end depending on down, distance, and the package called. That can make it very tough for defenses to get a read on what Dallas intends.

Kyle Hamilton was all over field to help account for Dallas’ diverse personnel packages. He played 79 of 80 defensive snaps and played slot cornerback, safety, outside linebacker, edge defender, and inside linebacker.

This potentially makes Dru Phillips’ injury significant. Phillips has been a revelation for the Giants’ defense and has had an impact in every game as a nickel defender. However it could also be an opportunity for Isaiah Simmons to shine. Simmons has been used as an off-ball linebacker as well as a slot defender for the Giants, and is perhaps the closest thing the Giants have to Hamilton.

Look for Simmons to potentially have a major role on the Giants’ defense as they try to match personnel packages without giving up too many favorable personnel matchups.

Disrupt Dak

Okay, I admit it: this one is easier said than done.

Prescott has not only been one of the most productive quarterbacks over the last couple years, he’s been one of the best when pressured. Last year he had a +9.0 completion percentage over expected when pressured according to NextGenStats.

Dak’s work on tape backs that up. He uses efficient movement in the pocket to avoid rushers and extend plays, as well as adjusting his angles to maximize receiving windows. And as mentioned above, not only does Dallas excel at creating space for their receivers, Prescott is capable of attacking (and exploiting) tight receiving windows with velocity and good placement.

Unfortunately, while the Giants largely dominated the Browns’ defense through the blitz, blitzing Prescott hasn’t been a great idea. Last year he had a 1,389 yards, 15 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, and a +6.5 CPOE when blitzed.

All of that said, there’s a difference between pressuring a quarterback and disrupting him. For most quarterbacks, pressure generally leads to disruption, but Prescott is more resistant to pressure than most. He’s a smart quarterback who usually knows where pressure is going to come from and where his answers are.

However, he can make some really bone-headed decisions when harried and the structure of the play deteriorates late in the down.

In the above play, the Ravens only send four to pressure Dak while dropping seven into coverage. It appears to be a Cover 8 look, which is Cover 4 to the bottom of the screen with Cover 2 on the top half. The outside corner has MEG (Man Everywhere he Goes) rules in place.

The coverage slows Prescott’s process as he’s forced to read the hybrid coverage. He initially intends to go to the offensive right, likely looking to attack the seam. Instead, he’s forced to reset and likely wants to go to Brandon Cooks running the post route. However, it takes him too long to reset and get there and pressure is closing in. Dak realizes an instant too late that he neither has time to set his feet to throw the post or go to his check-down as Dowdle released into a shallow route.

This is the point at which pressure becomes disruption.

Rather than throw the ball away or pull it and run, he decides to try and flip it to this RB. The problem is that he couldn’t make an accurate toss and Dowdle had started running across the field in a scramble drill. The flip goes behind him, toward the player closing to make a tackle in space.

The play wasn’t a disaster, but indecision leading to an inaccurate flip into traffic is a very dangerous proposition.

So what can the Giants take away from all of this?

First off, blitzing on 57% of Dak’s dropbacks might not be the best idea. However, using simulated pressure combined with Bowen’s typical stunts and twists could be effective. That would allow the Giants to keep seven back in coverage to muddy Prescott’s reads and (hopefully) keep the ball in his hands. That would (hopefully) attack the Cowboys’ communication on the offensive line and force breakdowns in ways that Prescott isn’t expecting.

That could result in the kinds of mistakes that the Giants need to contain an offense with the potential to be as high-powered as the one run by Dallas.