Colts’ Week 3 Anthony Richardson analysis: No real surprises

Thanks to the nflFastR project, Pro Football Focus and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.

For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the upcoming opponent QB has performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)

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(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

• In week 3, the Colts implemented a highly successful running game, while letting the pass game take a back seat on early downs (4th arsr, 23rd edp)
• Anthony Richardson saw an almost exclusively zone look, while the Colts continue to operate heavily out of the shotgun (4th oz%, 7th sg%)
• Richardson was not pressured, partly because he threw the ball quicker than other QBs (21st pr%, 18th ttt). That quicker throwing time, did not prevent him from taking deep shots as he continues to have one of the longest average depth of targets in the league (6th adot).
• His accuracy continues to be a problem, but despite that, the receivers gave him good yardage after the catch (29th cpoe, 3rd yac, 3rd yacoe). Without accuracy, those were really just fluke results biased by a few very successful throws. Don’t expect that to continue.
• Despite a 50% completion rate, he posted great yards per attempt (32nd cmp%, 5th ypa). Again, a few big plays made that happen and not consistent efficiency.
• His abandoned rate was a little higher than average, but it was comprised of primarily throw-aways and scrambles instead of sacks, which is exactly what you want to see (13th aa%, 3rd ta%, 15th scr%, 25th sck%).
• However, for the week, the above average abandon rate pulls his overall yardage efficiency down a bit (8th ny/d)
• His ability to get first downs and score TDs was basically absent and his turnover rate was sky-high (30th 1st%, 29th td%, 1st to%). That is the exact opposite of what you want and it drags his value per play and success rate to basically the worst of the week (32nd epa/d, 31st psr)

Here is the cumulative season totals for epa/d and psr, where AR finds himself in the company of QBs like Bo Nix, Caleb Williams and Will Levis. However, after a poor week 2 and a horrific week 3, C.J. Stroud’s season numbers aren’t much better.

I did not come to bury Ceaser, but there is plenty not to like about Richardson’s passing. Before the season, I said the 2 most critical skills he needed to have were accuracy and the ability to not abandon the pass. On the former, he is not doing well at all. His is completing -9.7% fewer passes than expected, which is the 2nd lowest accuracy in the league.

However, when it comes to abandoning plays, his numbers look promising. On the year he ranks 21st in abandoned rate and only 25th in sack rate. He is doing what a lot of athletic QBs can’t seem to do which is not giving up on a pocket and using his legs to extend plays while also avoiding sacks. He is also make good decisions of when to run and when to throw the ball away. I can’t stress enough how important this skill is and AR is impressing at it.

HOW WELL?

Richardson had only 6 dropbacks that added positive value, which results in a 27.3% pass success rate that is literally the lowest number I recall ever seeing in any anlayis I have done. His interceptions were back-breakers erasing more EPA than his two 40+ yard completions, causing a week worst -0.37 EPA per dropback.

Three of the top four measures fell from last week, with net yards per attempt improving.

HOW FAR?

50% completion just can’t be the comfort zone for an NFL QB. If you can’t complete passes, nothing else matters.

Only Caleb Williams and Kyler Murray have attempted more 20+ yards passes than Richardson, but 21 other QBs have added more value (EPA) on those deep attempts.

He continues to throw far.

He has the 9th highest yards per attempt of any QB, which usually would be accompanied by a chroir of praises. If only he could maintain that while improving on getting 1st downs and avoiding turnovers.

TO WHO?

No one has yet knocked Alec Pierce off of the yardage throne.

HOW ACCURATE?

Still an issue. The only distance where he has above average completions are 30+ yards.

HOW FAST?

He was much quicker this week, although 2.6 seconds isn’t quick, it’s just quicker than most of the running QBs that hold the ball waaaaay too long. When adjusting for depth of throw, AR is better than most.

TO WHERE?

20 attempts and 0 over the middle of the field. That needs to change.