Breaking down 4 key matchups for Lions vs. Cardinals with a deep statistical dive.
Welcome to my Week 3 observations for the Detroit Lions upcoming matchup at the Arizona Cardinals. The Lions are hoping to right the ship after the Tampa Bay Buccaneers sunk their journey to starting 2-0. It’s the first road test for the Lions and there is reassurance that the fans will continue to travel well, as they showed last year, and that this coaching staff has proven the ability to adjust and bounce back after a loss. The team hasn’t lost back-to-back games since Weeks 7 and 8 in 2022.
Unless otherwise indicated, all statics were made available via NFL Pro. Now, let’s take a look at what the Lions are up against with these angry birds.
Detroit can stop Kyler Murray’s deep passing
While on the topic of good coaching staffs, Jonathan Gannon, who was the butt of many jokes for his “pew-pew” interaction with former wide receiver Rondale Moore, has assembled himself a talented young staff and it starts with offensive coordinator Drew Petzing. Through two weeks, Petzing has the Cardinals offense ranked second in the NFL averaging 34.5 points per game.
Running point of Petzng’s explosive attack is Kyler Murray. Murray is nearly two years removed from the ACL injury that cost him the first nine games last season and for the first time in his NFL career isn’t running a gimmicky offense. A majority of Murray’s early success under former coach Kliff Kingsbury was attributed to him and DeAndre Hopkins going NBA Jam on fire mode with a two-man game.
Murray is currently on fire in a well-built system. Against the Rams in Week 2, he completed every one of his five deep passes after failing to complete any such passes in Week 1. Murray only completed seven such deep passes in eight games played last season. Of Murray’s 12 deep completions since the start of last season, eight of them have come against single-high safety coverages, including three of his four touchdowns.
Meanwhile, the Lions defense has yet to allow a single deep completion this season through two weeks (defined as more than 20 air yards). The Lions have also utilized single-high safety coverages on 70% of opposing drop backs, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. Offenses have only attempted three deep passes on the Lions, two of them have been plagued by quarterback pressures, and have generated the fifth best EPA/play at -0.76 EPA/play. The Lions ability to eliminate explosive passes can be attributed to the renewed improvement in the marriage of the pass rush and coverage under defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn.
Last season, the Lions’ sack percentage was only 6.2%, which was good for 22nd in the NFL. This season they’re at 8.9%, which ranks ninth. However, it’s not just the pass rush. While Carlton Davis III and Terrion Arnold continue to find their footing, the new safety combo of Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph is a big reason for the lack of explosive allowed. In Week 2, Branch boasted an 86.1 PFF defensive grade, which was good for second among all safeties and is currently tied for the league lead with four forced incompletions. Joseph currently ranks as PFF’s 11th-best safety and his -43.3% catch rate over expectation as the nearest defender ranks third among all defensive backs
With the Cardinals’ deep ball success, it will be fascinating to see if the Lions counter with more nickel personnel as their 67 snaps from base personnel is the second most in the league. From nickel, the Lions are 10th against passes with a -0.27 EPA/play and are third with a 43.6% QB pressure rate. Additionally, I’m intrigued to see if they deviate from their usual single-high safety to more split safety to further stop the deep attack.
It’ll be a battle of strength on strength and ensuring the Cardinals deep aerially wings are clipped will be key for the Lions to winning this game.
Cardinals ground game
To complement the deep passing attack that the Cardinals deployed against the Rams, the team bolsters a challenging and innovative rushing attack. Since Murray returned in Week 10 last season, the Cardinals have produced the second most rushing yards over expected per carry on designed run plays (1.0).
James Conner totaled 122 rushing yards and a touchdown on 21 carries (+27 rushing yards over expected) in the Cardinals’ win over the Rams. Conner’s +27 RYOE is his fifth-most in a game since joining the Cardinals in 2021. After forcing eight missed tackles in Week 1 (t-second most in NFL), Conner forced five against the Rams. His 13 missed tackles forced this season are the fourth-most in the league.
The Lions run defense remains as stout as ever this season however. Their run defense ranks second allowing -0.92 rushing yards over expectation/attempt, third allowing only 3.3 yards/rush, and 10th with a 19.6% run stuff percentage. While the Cardinals offensive line is improved under position coach Klayton Adams, and second-year left tackle Paris Johnson Jr. is a rising stud, on paper the offensive line has a tough matchup facing the Lions’ physical and dominating defensive front.
The Cardinals rushing success will likely rely on Drew Petzing’s play design putting the offensive line in favorable blocking angles. Shutting down the ground attack and making the Cardinals one dimensional will be key for Detroit.
13 personnel
One of the ways that Petzing is most creative is with his usage of heavier three tight end sets (also known as 13 personnel). The Cardinals have used 13 personnel on 23 of their 122 offensive plays this season (19%), second highest in the NFL.
The Cardinals have averaged 7.3 yards per play out of 13 personnel and scored three total touchdowns. The rest of the NFL combined have averaged 3.6 yards per play and scored just one total touchdown. After a quiet Week 1, Marvin Harrison Jr. caught four of his eight targets for 130 yards and two touchdowns, with both touchdowns coming on plays when the Cardinals were in 13 personnel.
The Lions will counter 13 personnel with their base formation, likely the 5-2 front with Derrick Barnes as the SAM linebacker on the line of scrimmage. The Lions have stopped the run well from base, ranking 10th with a -0.16 EPA/rush but are only 19th against the pass, allowing +0.16. This week’s matchup will be quite the chess match between Petzing and Glenn.
Get-back game for Goff
It hasn’t quite been the start to the season everyone expected for the Lions new $212 million man.
Jeremy Reisman had some fascinating statistical analysis in this week’s mailbag highlighting that not only is Jared Goff struggling, as he has in the past, while under pressure but he has also regressed passing from a clean pocket. This was quite a shocking discovery.
The Lions remain a top-10 team from an average target separation standpoint (+3.8 yards and ninth this year vs 3.6 yards and seventh last year), and the Cardinals pass coverage is ideal for Goff to get back on track. The Cardinals defense is dead last in average yards of separation per target allowed at 4.8 yards. For comparison’s sake, last year’s Vikings were last at only 4.3 yards, while 2022’s lowest team was the Texans at 4.1 yards. If Goff’s receiving threats can routinely get nearly 5 yards of separation, then he’ll have those easy button, big window passing lanes to allow for him to get in rhythm.
The other obstacle for Goff to get on a roll will be keeping him clean in the pocket. As Reisman also detailed, the Lions interior offensive line has allowed for considerably more pressure than Goff had come accustomed to. Last year, Graham Glasgow allowed an average of 2.4 pressures per game (per PFF). That’s up to 4.0 per game through two gamers. Frank Ragnow is up to 3.0 pressures per game after allowing just 1.3 last year. Kevin Zeitler has actually been holding up just fine, only allowing 1.5 pressures per game, while Jonah Jackson allowed 1.9 last year for Detroit.
The Cardinals lost 2023 second-round pick B.J. Ojulari, who was third on the team with a 9.6% pressure rate last season, to a torn ACL early in training camp. Their second 2024 first-round pick Darius Robinson is on injured reserve with a calf injury, The Cardinals blitz rate of 16.1% is only 26th in the NFL. Despite all that, the Cardinals are fourth in the NFL with an 11.3% sack rate.
So where is this red bird pass rush coming from?
The Lions offensive line will need to start by slowing down Dennis “The Barbarian” Gardeck. From 2020-22, Gardeck was very similar to what the Lions view for the ideal role for James Houston IV. He was a 6-foot, limited down, pass rush specialist. A third-and-long hired gun. But last year Gardeck’s role was elevated, and he responded with a team-leading 6.0 sacks and 43 QB pressures. This year, he’s off to a hot start recording 3.0 sacks against the Rams last week and his 79.3 PFF defensive grade currently ranks 16th among edge defenders (right behind Maxx Crosby).
On the opposite edge spot of Gardeck is former first round linebacker-turned-edge defender Zaven Collins. Collins’ impressive 72.2 PFF defensive grade currently ranks 25th among all edge defenders. That’s two top 25 edge defenders per PFF. On the interior, nose tackle Roy Lopez has had a surprisingly good start to the season. Lopez is third on the team with three QB pressures and has a 90.2 PFF pass rush grade which is the highest among all interior defenders.
This week will huge for quieting down the skeptical Goff ghouls. Ben Johnson scheming open window throws and the offensive line providing pristine protection in the pocket will go a long way to finding the team’s identity again.
