Giants at Browns Week 3: What to expect when Cleveland has the ball

The New York Giants will stay on the road for Week 3, as they travel to take on the Cleveland Browns.

The sentiment prior to the start of the season was that the Giants had a good chance to start 2-0 before heading into a tough 6-game stretch. It was widely believed that the Giants needed to come into this game at least 1-1, as wins could be hard to find from week three to week nine. Instead, the Giants are coming in 0-2 following a bad loss to the Minnesota Vikings and a last-second heart-breaker to the Washington Commanders.

The Giants are looking to stop the skid and prevent their season form spiraling out of control. To do so, they might need to depend on a defense that has been shaky-at-best so far this year.

So what can we expect when the Browns have the ball?

Stats that matter

Make Deshaun Watson throw deep

This first suggestion after watching the Browns’ tape is a bit counter-intuitive, and also runs counter to the theory behind Shane Bowen’s coverage schemes. However, it could make sense in the context of the Browns offense and the defense’s performance against the Washington Commanders.

The Browns are almost certainly planning to use a ball control offense after seeing the Giants’ inability to get off the field last week. It also happens to play into how they want to run their offense, at least to an extent. So far this year Cleveland hasn’t run the ball that often or that well — they’re 21st in attempts and 17th in yards per attempt — but on the flip side, they’ve been very pass-happy. The Browns have the second-most pass attempts in the NFL through two games, and are the third-most likely team to throw on early downs (first or second) when the game is close:

They also throw at the fourth-highest rate on second-and-long when the game is close.

That would make it seem like playing the type of coverage shells used by Bowen a good idea. If the Browns are going to throw it, play coverage. Right?

Not exactly.

DeShaun Watson was never known as a strong-armed quarterback, dating back to his time at Clemson. He’s also had an extensive injury history that’s further degraded his arm strength. Watson has torn both his left and right ACLs, and last year suffered a torn rotator cuff and fractured scapula in his throwing shoulder. So while he’s throwing often, they are almost exclusively short passes. Watson has attempted longer passes, but he’s completed just 7 of 21 passes beyond 10 yards down field and his average completion travels just 3.7 yards in the air (per NextGenStats).

Cleveland has also been dealing with some significant issues on their offensive line. Both left tackle Jedrick Wills and right tackle Jack Conklin have been dealing with injuries through the first two weeks of the season. It was reported Wednesday that the two would practice, but their status for the game is currently unknown. Backup right tackle Dawand Jones is also injured and was held out of practice on Wednesday.

Playing a more aggressive brand of coverage might have a couple benefits for the Giants in this game.

First, it plays to Deonte Banks’ strengths. He was drafted to be a press-man corner in an aggressive blitzing defense. The Giants will likely having him shadowing Jerry Jeudy (more on that in a bit), and allowing their young corner to use his size and physicality should help in that match-up. Likewise, the Browns are going to be looking for short completions and catch-and-run opportunities. Jamming at the line of scrimmage when possible will help to disrupt the timing of those plays and keep the ball in Watson’s hand longer.

Keeping the ball in Watson’s hand would expose the Browns’ offensive line to the Giants’ pass rush. And while the duo of Burns and Thibodeaux haven’t produced up to expectations yet, they have gotten into opponents’ backfields. Browns’ center Ethan Poccic has been “okay” in pass protection, but he was put on skates a few times by the Jaguars’ interior pass rush last week. That could bode well for Dexter Lawrence, as long as the Giants are able to keep the ball in Watson’s hands.

Finally, the Giants could invite deeper passes by moving a safety down into the intermediate area of the field. It’s a risk given the ability of Jeudy and Amari Cooper, but Watson’s diminished arm strength isn’t well suited to attacking deep. That could lead to some poorly-placed or floating passes that could be ripe for interception.

Bringing an eighth defender closer to the line of scrimmage could also help the Giants’ shoddy run defense.

The Browns will be without Nick Chubb after he started the season on the PUP list and neither Jerome Ford nor D’Onta Foreman are as hard to tackle as Aaron Jones or Brian Robinson. In fact, Robinson has nearly twice as many yards after contact (95) as Ford and Foreman have combined (58).

Bringing an eighth defender close to the line of scrimmage — at least on occasion — will help reinforce the run defense, as well as dissuade the Browns from running. Much of run defense comes down to defensive personnel and alignment and a simple box count is often the decider between running or throwing the ball. For a team that already wants to throw, seeing an extra defender makes that decision easy. That doesn’t mean the defender has to stay in the box, and a coverage drop could help muddy Watson’s reads, slow his process, and take away those short passes.

Double duty on Jerry Jeudy

At first blush, the Browns’ starting trio of Jeudy and Amari Cooper on the outside, and Elijah Moore in the slot, is potentially formidable. Cooper has been one of the best receivers in the NFL since he was drafted fourth overall back in 2015. However, Cooper has gotten off to a rough start and has, frankly, been bad. He’s struggled to hold on to the ball in particular, with drops coming in key situations. His 29.4 percent catch rate and 23.5 percent drop rate are a big reason why Watson is completing less than 60 percent of his passes this year.

Likewise, Moore has an unsightly 14.3 percent drop rate.

That leaves Jeudy as the Browns best and most reliable receiving option — particularly with tight end David Njoku dealing with an injury.

With that in mind, as well as understanding how likely the Browns are to throw the ball as opposed to run it, the Giants’ first priority should be ensuring that Jeudy doesn’t beat them. They did a good job of containing Justin Jefferson, all things considered. They should use a similar strategy with respect to Jeudy and try to force Watson to rely on the unreliable Cooper and Moore.

Doing so is easier said than done, as the Browns do weaponize space and player alignment to get free releases and create space. The use of bunch formations as well as condensed alignments can create traffic or natural rubs to help create easier throws for the quarterback. The Browns will also likely make use of a high rate of zone beater route concepts against the Giants’ secondary and put their young defensive backs in conflict.

Jeudy’s natural ability, as well as the use of play design to help get the ball to him has helped to make him a dangerous weapon for the Browns. He only has one touchdown (so far), but Watson has a passer rating of 102.7 when targeting Jeudy. That would be good for seventh in the NFL, just behind C.J. Stroud, if the rest of the Browns passing offense was on par with Jeudy.

So while the Giants may not be able to take Jeudy out of the game completely, limiting him would put a dent in the Browns’ offense.

Discipline is the name of the game

The Giants’ defense has been a disappointment so far this year. There have been a few reasons why, though shoddy run defense and a porous pass defense are the two biggest offenders. The Giants need to play with greater discipline in both phases of defense to give themselves the best chance to keep the Browns from gaining traction on offense.

Cleveland may not run the ball that often, however they do use a pretty varied rushing attack. Not only do they attack the middle of the defense with man-gap and inside zone runs, but they also make use of outside zone to stress the defense laterally. They’ll also use pitches to get the ball to their backs in space and in-stride. They also make use of motion before and at the snap to draw opponents out of position or give themselves a numbers advantage on the play side.

The Giants need to avoid being drawn out of position as well as respect their run fits when Watson hands the ball off. They obviously need to tackle better to avoid giving away yards after contact, and playing with more discipline will put players in better position to make efficient tackles.

And as mentioned above, the Giants will also face challenges with route concepts and alignment. That will challenge the young defensive backs to understand their assignments and communicate to minimize coverage breakdowns. The Washington Commanders used a relatively simple offense and the Giants’ coverage generally comported itself well. The Browns’ (much) more veteran offense is likely to be close to what the Vikings used in Week 1, at least in terms of sophistication if not precise scheme.

While using more aggressive coverages could be advisable for this game, maintaining the overall structure and cohesiveness of the coverage scheme is paramount. The Giants can’t allow easy yards to Jeudy, nor can they count on Cooper and Moore dropping catchable passes. While Watson isn’t the quarterback he used to be, he still has the ability to deliver precise passes that maximize catch windows and give his receivers the chance to pick up yards after the catch. Since it’s unlikely that the Browns will consistently attack deep, limiting yards after the catch will go a long way toward allowing the defense to get off the field.

Extra point: Will familiarity play a role?

The Giants obviously don’t play the Browns that often. As the teams are in different conferences, they only play every four years with the last meeting being in 2020. Both teams’ personnel have changed tremendously since then so this isn’t about familiarity between rosters. However, it’s worth noting that Browns offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey and Brian Daboll are very familiar with each other. Dorsey’s first job in the NFL was as the Buffalo Bills’ quarterbacks coach in 2019, under offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. Dorsey was promoted to passing game coordinator in 2020 and replaced Daboll as the Bills’ offensive coordinator in 2022.

Both men are familiar with how the other thinks, and that could be a double-edged sword. Dorsey can absolutely advise Cleveland DC Jim Schwartz on Daboll’s preferences and tendencies as an offensive coordinator.

(And as another point of familiarity, Schwartz worked with Bowen as a defensive assistant in Tennessee.)

Daboll could help inform Bowen on the thought processes at work in how Dorsey calls plays — particularly with regards to the passing offense. The two have worked together to break down defensive tape, and that could add another layer to the chess match between coaches. We don’t know how the matchup will play out, but it could be fascinating to see if familiarity between the two men factors into the flow of the game.