Fantasy Football ‘24: Week 3 Fantasy preview—start/sit, and more

Welcome to Week 3! One of the big stories from Week 2 is a rash of injuries, unfortunately. How bad is it out there? Well, were only two games in and the Los Angeles Rams already have lost their top two receivers for what looks like multiple weeks, plus several pieces of their starting offensive line. Good luck, Matt Stafford. The Rams aren’t the only ones hurting. The injury bug is widespread and fantasy managers across the globe are scrambling to field decent lineups—without Bye weeks further interfering (they start in Week 5). If you’re still looking for help from the Waiver Wire, check out my Week 3 Waivers column here:

Big injuries aren’t the only major story from Week 2. The offensive funk that we saw in Week 1 continued. Offense was down in 2023 and that trend appears to be worsening, and especially as it relates to passing. Through two weeks of the season, only five (out of a possible 64) QBs have thrown for more than 300 yards in a game, and none have topped 340. Through those 32 games, NFL quarterbacks have thrown just 69 TD passes—barely more than one per team, per game. In each season from 2019 through 2022, the league-wide number of TD passes after Week 2 was more than 100. On the flip side, NFL teams have kicked a truly absurd 141 field goals through two weeks, which is more than four per team — and that’s with teams continuing to go for it on lots of fourth-and-shorts. Six of this week’s 16 games have a Vegas total of 38.5 or lower. What in the name of George Blanda is going on? No, a DeLorean with a Flux Capacitor™ didn’t take us all back to 1955, but defense clearly has the upper hand so far this season. We’ll see if it continues.

Stats of the Week:

All of what I just said apparently only applies to 31 teams. The Saints have 91 points through two games, the fourth-highest total in NFL history. They’re averaging 32.5 points per first half. Other than the Saints, the Cardinals are the only team averaging more than 32.5 points per game (they’re at 34.5).

Marvin Harrison, Jr. (the first wide receiver taken in the 2024 NFL draft) has played eight quarters of NFL football. In the first quarter on Sunday, he had four catches for 130 yards and two TDs. In his other seven quarters combined, he has one catch for four yards and zero TDs.

Malik Nabers (the second WR taken in the 2024 NFL draft) was targeted on 18 of 27 pass attempts from Daniel Jones, a 67% target share. No player has had a target share that high in a game (minimum 15 team pass attempts) in at least a decade.

NFL kickers are 35 for 39 on FGs of 50+ yards this season. Two of those misses belong to Justin Tucker, who is 1 for 7 from that distance since the start of last season. Tucker is the most accurate field goal kicker of all time.

Bryce Young completed 18 passes on Sunday, for 84 yards (4.67 yards per completion). That’s the new NFL record for most completions in a game by a QB who didn’t throw for at least 100 yards. In case you didn’t hear, Young has been benched for Andy Dalton.

Guffaw of the Week: The Giants became the first team in NFL history to score three or more TDs, allow zero TDs, and lose.

OK, Week 3, here we go!

Bye Weeks: None

Injury Watch: There are so many players either already OUT, likely OUT, or iffy, that I’ll leave it up to you to track your own players ahead of their kickoffs. Watch the Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday practice reports, and always check the inactives when they’re released 90 minutes before kickoff.

Week 3 Rides, Fades and Sleepers

For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else: The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, in many cases, as compared to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise, and as a general rule, always start your studs. I’ll rarely list the most obvious names at a position as “Rides” because those players are matchup-proof and are almost always expected to have strong performances, plus you don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Josh Allen, Breece Hall, or CeeDee Lamb. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats, too. Half PPR scoring and Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are used for the column. Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week. The rules are simple. The Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade of the Week can’t be someone who almost nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper of the Week must be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.

After killing it in Week 1, I came back to earth in Week 2. The good outweighed the bad, but not by much. I’ll try to bounce back this week. You can check my work here: Week 2 fantasy preview.

Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Ride of the Week: Joe Burrow (vs. WAS). I chose Baker Mayfield as my Sleeper of the Week in Week 1, largely because he was facing the Commanders. He put up 29.7 fantasy points which made him the QB2 for the week, behind only Josh Allen. As the late, great John Candy said in Splash, when something works for me, I stick with it.

Fade of the Week: Jaylen Waddle (@SEA). As a Miami fan this pains me, but Waddle’s numbers in Skylar Thompson’s three career starts have been pretty bad. I wouldn’t bench Tyreek Hill under any circumstances, but you can think about it with Waddle, depending on your other options. It’s also a potentially difficult matchup. In a small sample size against two low-octane offenses, Seattle has been tough on opposing wide receivers, allowing just 141 yards and 1 TD to opposing wide receivers through two games.

Sleeper of the Week:

Bucky Irving (vs. DEN). Rachaad White continues to get the bulk of the work, but Irving has been the more efficient runner by a wide margin. It’s just two games, but White was highly inefficient last season too, and when one running back is averaging 5.3 yards per carry and the other is stuck at 2.0, you have to wonder how long the coaches will leave them in their current roles. Denver has a below average run defense and I think Irving will see a decent amount of work in this game, and especially if the Bucs get out to a decent lead as expected. If you’re having trouble fielding a second running back or Flex this week, Irving is worth a shot.

Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Quarterback:

Elite options this week – Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Lamar Jackson;

Rides:

Kyler Murray (vs. DET). With one more game like last week’s effort, Murray might get listed with the elite options. The Lions have improved their pass defense but it’s still gettable, and this will be their first road game, where they generally aren’t as good on either side of the ball. Murray needs to involve Harrison more consistently, but even with him quiet after the first quarter Murray and the offense were cruising. This should be a fun, high-scoring game (it’s got the highest Vegas total of the week at 52.5). Play all your main pieces in DET@ARI.

So naturally, I’ll also ride Jared Goff (@DET), who is coming off his worst fantasy performance since he joined the Lions. The Cardinals’ defense played well last week but that was against a heavily depleted Rams’ offense, in a game that quickly got out of hand. Even if Amon-Ra St. Brown can’t go, the Lions are a lot to deal with and I think they’ll bounce back this week. The Cardinals allowed the fourth-most FPPG and TD passes to opposing quarterbacks last season. Goff should bounce back.

Derek Carr (vs. PHI). Sure, I’ll gladly ride the hot hand. Carr is the QB2 through two weeks (behind Mayfield) and while I doubt either one will finish the season anywhere close to that, the Saints’ offense is on fire and Carr’s QB15 ranking this week is too low. The Eagles’ defense mostly contained Kirk Cousins and his pass-catchers on Monday night. And then the 60^th minute of the game happened and the Eagles reverted to 2023 form. With the way Klint Kubiak’s offense is humming, I think the Eagles will struggle to stop the Saints in their home dome. Philly allowed the second most FPPG and TD passes (38) to opposing QBs last season, and through two games this season they’ve allowed the sixth most FPPG to opposing QBs.

Sleepers: I said this last week, and it’s true again this week:Geno Smith (vs. MIA), Gardner Minshew (vs. CAR), and (gulp) Deshaun Watson (vs. NYG).

Fades:

Jayden Daniels (@CIN). His rushing floor will always make him an OK start, but I don’t like this week’s matchup. The Bengals have allowed the second fewest passing yards on the young season and just held Patrick Mahomes to his career-lowest passing yardage total (while picking him off three times). Cincinnati is desperate for its first win and will be playing at home. The Commanders were kept out of the end zone by the Giants on Sunday, and their passing offense is still a work in progress.

Trevor Lawrence (@BUF). I don’t know how the Bills do it. They’ve lost a ton of key pieces on defense and continue to be a difficult passing game matchup. They’ve faced two explosive offenses so far (MIA and ARI) and are just outside the Top-10 in fewest FPPG allowed to opposing QBs. On top of that, they’ll have 10 full days to prepare for Jacksonville. On the flip side, the big 2024 Lawrence breakout has been more like a breakdown on the side of I-10. Through two games he’s thrown just one TD pass, and his team has lost two games that it easily could have won. I don’t see it getting fixed on the road this week, in a hostile environment where the fans dive through tables before settling into their seats.

Caleb Williams (@IND). The Colts’ run defense has been the NFL’s worst (by far) through two weeks and my guess is that given how the Bears have struggled to move the ball (only the Panthers have averaged fewer than the 176.5 yards of total offense per game that Chicago is averaging), they’ll pound it if they can. There will be better days ahead for Williams, but for now I don’t see how you can start him with any confidence, even as your QB2 in a Superflex. How he’s ranked as the QB16 this week is beyond me. What have those analysts been watching? And smoking?

Justin Herbert (@PIT). This is mostly about the defense that the Chargers will be facing, on the road. The Steelers have allowed the second fewest FPPG to opposing quarterbacks so far this season, and pressure QBs at one of the highest rates in the NFL. Also, Herbert came out of his Week 2 game with an ankle injury and the Chargers figure to again pound it as much as they can, in what should be a low-scoring game between two 2-0 clubs that are both happy to grind it out (the Vegas total of 36 is the lowest on the board this week). This game could be over in two and a half hours.

Others: For those who play Superflex, I’ll just say don’t even think about it: Jacoby Brissett (@NJY), Malik Willis (@TEN), Daniel Jones (@CLE), and Bo Nix (@TB).

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Running back:

Elite options this week – Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall, Saquon Barkley, and Alvin Kamara; the analysis starts below them.

Rides:

Jordan Mason (@LAR). No McCaffrey and no Deebo should mean a massive rush share for Mason. The Rams have allowed the third most rushing yards and FPPG to opposing running backs so far this season. The stars are aligned, and Mason is a Top-5 play this week.

Jahmyr Gibbs (@ARI). The Cardinals have been better against the run so far this season, but stats can be misleading. They were up 21-0 in their Week 2 game and the Rams had to abandon the run. Their defense is still below average and the Lions should feature Gibbs in this contest. David Montgomery isn’t a bad start, either. Like I said, play what you’ve got in this contest.

Josh Jacobs (@TEN). Jacobs hit big last week as a Ride for me, and I’ll double down for the same reasons as last week. The Packers are going to pound the ball as much as they can while Jordan Love is out. Not only did Jacobs lead all rushers in carries (32) and yards (151) last week, but he’s also averaging almost 5 ypc on the season. The Titans are stout against the run, so I don’t expect him to run wild like he did last week, but he’s ranked outside the Top-10 and for me he’s a Top-10 play.

James Cook (vs. JAC). I know, I know. The two rushing TDs that Cook got in Week 2 equaled his total from all of last season. The Jaguars are a middle-of-the-road run defense and I’ve thought since the preseason that Cook is going to be a Top-8 back this season. He should be ranked a little higher on a weekly basis and I’ll keep riding him.

D’Andre Swift (@IND). The Colts have the unique distinction of having given up the two largest rushing games to an opposing running back this season, and in case anyone forgot, the season is only two weeks old. So that’s NOT a good look for them. Can Swift do what Joe Mixon and Josh Jacobs did to this defense? Yes, if he gets enough carries. He’s ranked as the RB25 this week and he’s easily a Top-20 play.

Other RBs ranked from 15-30 at the position that I’m riding this week include: Zach Charbonnet (vs. MIA, and assuming Kenneth Walker misses another game as expected), Rhamondre Stevenson (@NYJ), Tony Pollard (vs. GB), and Zach Moss (vs. WAS).

Sleepers:

Chuba Hubbard (@LV). The Panthers offense is averaging 176 yards per game through two games and is historically bad. Andy Dalton isn’t going to be this year’s version of Joe Flacco (they don’t have the personnel, for one thing), but he’s a steady veteran presence and I do think he can make this look like an NFL team, at least. Fire up Hubbard if you’re in need.

If you’re truly stuck this week, here are some other lower-ranked running backs (outside the Top-30) that I think you can pencil in: Carson Steele and Samaje Perine (@ATL), Alexander Mattison (vs. CAR), Cam Akers (@MIN), Ty Chandler (vs. HOU), and D’Onta Foreman (vs. NYG). All of these backs have the chance to lead their team in touches this week.

Fades:

James Conner (vs. DET). I’m a big Conner fan, and you’re starting him if you have him, but I wouldn’t expect his usual fantasy output. The Lions allowed the second fewest FPPG to opposing RBs last season and guess what? That’s also their ranking after two games this time around. They’ve allowed just 106 rushing yards and one TD to opposing backs through two games.

Aaron Jones (vs. HOU). A combination of a tough matchup (through two games, the Texans have allowed the second fewest rushing yards and fourth fewest FPPG to opposing RBs), Jones popping up on the injury report on Wednesday (hip), and Chandler continuing to eat into his workload (he had more carries than Jones last week) has me lukewarm (at best) on Jones in Week 3. I doubt you have better options, but this doesn’t feel like a big week for him.

Joe Mixon (@MIN, if he plays). Let’s stay up north. I’ll have a hard time trusting Mixon (ankle) if he suits up this week, as I think it will be more of a committee backfield, in a difficult matchup. The Vikings have allowed the fifth-fewest FPPG to opposing running backs so far this season, and did a very good job at home against the 49ers’ high-powered rushing attack last week.

Dallas RBs (vs. BAL). Shared backfield? Check. Going up against the NFL’s top-rated run defense? Check. Pass? Check.

Denver RBs (@TB). The Bucs haven’t been as stout against the run so far this season as they’ve been in recent years, but no matter. The Broncos have scored just two TDs in two games and their split backfield hasn’t done much to inspire fantasy managers to start either option.

Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images

Wide receiver:

Elite options this week –CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, and Amon-Ra St. Brown;

Rides:

Chris Olave (vs. PHI). Olave has played second fiddle to Rashid Shaheed so far this season, in terms of targets, yards and TDs, but he’s still the top passing option for the Saints and against the Eagles’ sub-par pass defense, he could be in for his best day on the young season. The Saints have yet to play a competitive game, which hasn’t helped Olave. The Eagles have allowed the second most FPPG to opposing wide receivers so far this season, after being dead last in that category last year. Go ahead and fire up the speedy Shahid as well (he’s now ranked high enough to not qualify as a sleeper – that’s been an easy cheat code for me the last two weeks).

Brandon Aiyuk (@LAR) and Devonta Smith (@NO). I’m lumping these two together because each is ranked outside the Top-12 this week, each will be the clear No. 1 wide receiver for his team this week due to an injury to his running mate, and each is really good. Both should be busy on Sunday, and I have both inside my Top-12.

Marvin Harrison, Jr. (v. DET). Harrison is ranked inside the Top-10 this week, and putting him there is risky given that all of his production so far this season came in one quarter. But that explosiveness is exciting for fantasy, and the Cardinals will need to score in this one and my guess is they’ll be throwing a lot. Ride Harrison.

Other receivers ranked from 12-35 this week that I’ll flag as rides include Jameson Williams (@ARI), Amari Cooper (vs. NYG), and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (vs. MIA).

Sleepers (ranked outside the Top 35):

Khalil Shakir (vs. JAC). He’s been the most reliable wide receiver for the Bills, and the matchup isn’t a hard one. I don’t know if a true alpha receivers will emerge for the Bills, but Shakir appears to be an important cog in the offense.

Demarcus Robinson (vs. SF). Someone is going to have to catch passes for the Rams, and of their healthy options, I think Robinson has the best chance. If you want to take a flier on Tyler Johnson, I can get behind that also. This is a must-win game for 0-2 L.A.

Other WRs ranked outside the top-35 this week that I think you can go with if you’re in need include Andrei Iosivas (vs. WAS), Brandin Cooks (vs. BAL), Jauan Jennings (@LAR), and Diontae Johnson (@LV).

Fades:

Drake London (vs. KC). I saw what he did on Monday night. That was against the Eagles. The Chiefs are a difficult matchup (just ask Ja’Marr Chase) and while I wouldn’t sit London, this could be one of those games where he doesn’t exactly fill up the stat sheet. Adjust your expectations accordingly.

D.J. Moore (@IND). I could just cut and paste what I wrote last week. Until Caleb Williams looks like an NFL QB (right now, he doesn’t), I don’t see how you can start any pass-catchers on Chicago. Williams is averaging less than 140 passing yards per game and has yet to throw his first NFL TD.

George Pickens (vs. LAC). The Steelers are winning with very modest passing totals and that’s how Mike Tomlin wants it, I’m sure. The less they need Justin Fields to air it out, the better. I don’t see that changing against the Chargers. L.A. was awful against the pass last season, but so far, they’ve turned that around. They’ve allowed the third fewest FPPG and zero TDs to opposing WRs (part of that is who they’ve played). Fade Pickens.

Christian Kirk (@ BUF). One catch for minus-one yard? Kirk has become an afterthought and while I don’t think that’s permanent, you can’t start him right now. But don’t drop him (yet) either.

Green Bay WRs (@TEN). This is a red-light special. The Titans’ are the No. 1 pass defense through two games, and they’re facing an offense led by Malik Willis. Oh, and their defense knows Willis quite well. Jordan Love can’t return soon enough.

Other “bigger name” Fades: Courtland Sutton (@TB), Terry McLaurin (@CIN), and DeAndre Hopkins (vs. GB). Quarterback issues are causing major problems for all three of these wide receivers.

Tight end:

Elite options this week – None. After what we’ve seen so far, no tight end deserves to be listed as elite. That said, the Rides this week are all obvious names. Apologies in advance.

Rides:

Sam LaPorta (@ARI). The slump ends here. Amon-Ra St. Brown is a banged up, Goff will be looking to get back on track, a shootout is eminently possible, and that all points to LaPorta being unleashed at last. Plug him in with confidence.

In the same game, fire up Trey McBride, who scored on a fumble recovery last week and is a good bet to score the more traditional way this week.

Brock Bowers (vs. CAR). If any tight end deserves to be considered elite right now, it’s Bowers, who has played all of two NFL games. He’s been dynamite so far, and is a safe bet to keep it going against a poor Panthers’ defense that has allowed the third most FPPG to opposing TEs on the young season.

Travis Kelce (@ATL). Kelce has been invisible for the first two weeks, but with Isiah Pacheco out and facing a pretty tough defense, I think Kelce will need to make his presence felt in order for Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense to get back on track after a poor outing vs. the Bengals. Kelce will come out of the garage for a few spins this week.

Kyle Pitts (vs. KC). The Chiefs’ defense is a solid unit but has struggled against TEs in the early going this season, with Isaiah Likely and Mike Gesicki both having very big games against them. Pitts didn’t do much on Monday night, but should be more prominently featured this week.

George Kittle (@LAR). Another obvious name—sigh. It’s the nature of the tight end beast right now. Like Aiyuk, Kittle should see increased opportunities with both Deebo and McCaffrey out.

Sleepers:

Colby Parkinson (vs. SF). It’s a tough matchup, but with their injuries at wide receiver I could see Parkinson getting more than a few looks from Matt Stafford. I wouldn’t start him unless I was desperate.

Taysom Hill (vs. @PHI). He got banged up last week, but assuming he plays, he’s always in the dart throw conversation for those who are stuck. This is a risk-reward play. He’s due for one of his “up” games.

Fades:

Isaiah Likely (@DAL). He’ll have more big games this season, and he’d be a clear TE1 if anything happened to Mark Andrews, but it’s starting to look like what he did in Week 1 might have been game-specific and largely a result of the Chiefs taking away Andrews with double-teams. Make no mistake, Andrews is still the TE1 and he’s playing more snaps and running more routes. That makes Likely harder to trust week-in and week-out. You can start him, chasing the upside, and especially with a few TE1s hurt. Just know that he may end up having more down weeks than up.

Dallas Goedert (@NO). Even with A.J. Brown out, Goedert failed to impress. He’s sharing the TE role, and I think his slow start will continue. He and Cole Kmet (@IND) are weekly fades until further notice.

Mike Gesicki (vs. NYG). That was a nice game, Mike Gesicki. But I wouldn’t expect a repeat this week. Tee Higgins may return, and Gesicki is sharing tight end snaps and routes with two other players. His contributions to your fantasy lineup will be hard to trust unless and until we see some consistency.

PK and D/ST Streamers (ranked outside the top-12): See my Week 3 Waiver Wire column.

That’s that. Good luck in Week 3!

***This column appears each Thursday right here at Big Blue View. Each Monday, my Waiver Wire column appears here, and on Fridays you can find my weekly FanDuel Props of the week for the Giants, also right here. ***