What happened to the Colts run defense?

After a brutal game vs the Texans trying to slow down Joe Mixon, the Colts surrender an absurd amount of yards in the 1st half vs the Packers. This begs the question what has happened to the Colts previously stout run Defense?

The Colts Run Defense allowed just 4.1 Yards Per Carry in 2022 and 2023, good for 5th and 10th in those years respectively. So far in 2024 they are allowing 5.1 Yards Per Carry, which is in the bottom 7 in the NFL thus far. What has caused the Colts to fall so far in the run defense department early on this season?

Injuries Hurt

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The Colts have had several injuries limit their players effectiveness and/or availability so far in 2024, especially on Defense. These include:

• Samson Ebukam, Achilles (IR): 80 Run Defense Grade (2023)
• Kwity Paye, Hamstring sprain: 78.1 Run Defense Grade (2023)
• DeForest Buckner, Back and Ankle: 63.8 Run Defense Grade (2023)
• Julian Blackmon, Shoulder: 59.2 Run Defense Grade (2023) to 51.2 (2024 Week 1)
• JuJu Brents, MCL (IR): 71.6 Run Defense Grade (2024)
• Laiatu Latu, Hip: 57.8 Run Defense Grade (Week 1)

Ebukam was the first major injury to occur, and in Week 1 it was clear that the Colts missed him setting the edge. The Texans thrived on running to the left behind All Pro T Laremy Tunsil, and the Colts struggled to stop Mixon in that direction. Mixon ran 17 of his 30 carries to the wide left, picking up 89 yards and a TD in the process. Unfortunately the Colts Edge defenders so far haven’t been able to consistently set the edge in 2024 like Ebukam did last year.

Whenever Grover Stewart was on the sideline for a breather as well, the Colts Run Defense suffered in Week 1 as well. Depth DTs Raekwon Davis (still getting back in the swing of things after missing full offseason with high blood pressure), Taven Bryan, and Adetomiwa Adebawore struggled to get adequate push in the interior vs the run.

Team leader DeForest Buckner has dealt with a back injury, but still was leading the Colts in Run Defense Grade in Week 1. The Colts Run Defense has to face the prospect of playing without him for a bit, as he went out on a cart vs Green Bay with an ugly angle injury.

Thankfully after negative X-Rays and with initial testing, it appears Buckner only suffered an ankle sprain, and a non-severe one at that. He is doubtful to be able to play Week 3, but thankfully the injury isn’t a long term one.

Brents was a key figure in the Colts efforts to contain the outside run, but now with him out for the season, the Colts turn to Jaylon Jones (63.8 Run Defense Grade Week 1 and 57.1 in 2023) as well as Samuel Womack III (65.7 Run Defense Grade in 2023) to stop outside runs. The Colts also missed Julian Blackmon Week 2, and while Nick Cross continued his heroic efforts in the run game (29 tackles last 2 weeks), Rodney Thomas II at times was struggling in his angles, tackling, or block shedding vs the run in Week 2. Julian Blackmon being healthy and returning to form as a box/free safety could help the Colts stop run plays from breaking into bigger plays.

Missed Tackles/Block Shedding

Beyond Defensive Line injuries and depth issues, the biggest area of concern has to be at the LB level. A lot is put on Zaire Franklin and EJ Speed’s plate in Run Defense. EJ Speed suffered 2 missed tackles in Week 1, and both him and Zaire had a handful in Week 2. While some better DL performance could help them be clean from blockers in the 2nd level more, missing in the open field can not happen consistently if you hope to be a good run Defense team.

The buck stops with these two more often than not when it comes to this regard, if Franklin and Speed are playing at their usual level, then the Colts can mitigate the Run Defense woes. Both of them had 45.2-46.4 run grades in Week 1, and while EJ Speed improved to 68.9, Zaire Franklin regressed even further in Week 2 with a 35.7 Run Grade.

Time Of Possession Fatigue

So far in the 2024 season the Colts have had a wild Time of Possession difference from their opponents, losing it 39:49 to 80:11 so far this season. Now this can be a bit of a “what came first, the chicken or the egg” dilemma, as being bad vs the run leads to longer and more sustained drives for the opposing Offenses, more time on the field for the defense, and more fatigue for the defense which can lead to sloppy play in multiple aspects… including run defense.

But fatigue certainly can’t help matters, both in performance and health for the Colts defense.

Signs of Improvement

For the First 6 Quarters of football in 2024, the Colts Run Defense allowed an astoundingly bad 450 rushing yards (213 to Texans, 237 to Packers). However in the 2nd half of their game vs the Packers, they allowed just 24 Rushing Yards, despite a 3rd Quarter injury to DeForest Buckner too.

How did this turnaround happen?

Better tackling, better push up front and penetration by the Defensive line, better contain of the QB run on the outside (with help from Spy/underneath coverage concepts keeping their eyes on Malik Willis), and more disciplined run gap fits by the Colts. The also weren’t fooled by the Packers sweep motions, blowing up some outside end arounds for negative yards. The adjustments worked, and the Colts held firm on Defense in the 2nd half allowing just 1.3 Yards per Carry in that span compared to 7 Yards Per Carry in the 1st Half.

Considering a lot of the Colts who struggled in the first 6 quarters of run defense having much better resumes on the ground that that prior play suggests, I’d expect the unit to bounce back to some extent, especially as it gets healthier. The latter is a question up in the air with star DT DeForest Buckner injured with an Ankle Sprain, but if this Colts Defense can play to its former potential vs the run, the Colts will have better odds to avoid losing the time of possession battle so dramatically and staying more energized.

However the first 6 quarters of Colts run Defense were laughably bad, and the Colts will need a lot larger sample size of the 2nd half vs Packers Run Defense to help erase the stench of the beginning of season defense against opposing runners. Otherwise, expect opposing players to continue to be so brash when referring to the Colts.