Week 1 Colts Defensive Rankings and Analysis: Mostly bad, partly awful

Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous Colts game and analyzing the numbers to form a sort of “what happened” narrative, as well as comparing the Colts against all other teams in the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference Season Stats. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com, Football Outsiders, and the nflFastR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.

There is no simpler way to say it other than in week 1, the Houston Texans bullied the Indy defense all day. The Houston offense earned 26 first downs which ties for the most in week 1 and is a higher total than 94% of games in 2023. Their 83.9% Drive Success Rate (DSR) was the 2nd highest of the week and helped them get in scoring position on 7 of their 9 drives.

The Colts yielded over 400 yards and 29 points. Thankfully, Houston mismanaged the clock at the end of the first half and took a knee to end the game, otherwise the score wouldn’t have been so close.

TEAM TOTALS

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The Colts defense gave up the 2nd most yards and the 5th most points per drive. They surrendered the 3rd most EPA per play and allowed Houston to have the 5th highest play Success Rate (adj TSR) along with the 3rd highest first down conversion rate.

There just aren’t any good numbers to look at.

PASS TOTALS

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The passing defense wasn’t altogether terrible. With the help of 4 sacks, they held C.J. Stroud to below average yardage efficiency (18th ny/d) and kept his Success Rate in check (15th PSR).

Unfortunately, the Colts gave up a couple of big pass plays that boosted Stroud’s overall EPA efficiency (+0.18 EPA/d) and lands the Colts defense at 22nd against the pass.

RUSH TOTALS

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The run defense was simply atrocious, which is unfortunate because Houston ran a lot (2nd most carries, most rushing yards by any team).

Anytime you give up 5 yards per carry (29th), it’s going to be tough to be effective at limiting opponent efficiency. Houston had the 5th most rushing first downs which helped them end up with the 6th best EPA per carry and 6th best adj Rush Success Rate.

They gave up too many big runs, too many first downs and just simply too many yards.

CONCLUSION & LOOK AHEAD

This was not the way you want to start the season. The Colts defense was pushed around most of the day and gave up far too many explosive plays. They were poor against the pass and basically had no run defense at all.

For week 2, the Colts travel to Green Bay to face an offense that put up the 9th most points per drive in week 1. However, that was with Jordan Love under center and his injury will almost certainly keep him on the sidelines in week 2’s contest.

Back-up Malik Willis has not looked good in previous starts, so I doubt he will press the Colts defense as much as C.J. Stroud did. That means the Packers will probably lean on their run game a bit more and they have a very good run game. Last year, Green Bay had the 9th highest rushing success rate in the league and they continued that in week 1, ranking 7th best.

The Colts will probably be more aggressive against the run, daring Willis to beat them with his arm and that could turn out well for Indy. At the time of this writing Colts are favored by 2.5.