How can we tell if Darnold’s performance was a short-term thing or a more substantial fix?
Sam Darnold was the highest graded PFF quarterback in week one, and one of the top performers in nearly all the major metrics, from EPA/dropback, completion percentage over expectations (CPOE), QBR, and passer rating. But Darnold’s performance has drawn split viewpoints, with some saying this is the long anticipated renaissance of Darnold now that he has a good team and coaching around him, and others dismissing it- it was against the pathetic Giants- and Darnold has put together some good games in the past only to regress back to his unimpressive career averages.
So is this time different? Or is it just another sugar high bound to fade in the coming weeks?
Comparing Darnold to His Last Season Start
Darnold’s 2021 Season
The last time Darnold began a season as the starter- in 2021 with the Panthers- he won his first three games against weakish opponents- the Jets, Saints, and Texans. He had a passer rating averaging around 100 over those three games, an adjusted completion percentage around 78%, and an overall average PFF grade around 75.
But then he faced a couple tougher teams in the Cowboys and Eagles and the bubble burst. Darnold threw 5 interceptions in those two games- both losses- and his overall performance metrics sank back to his low career averages. The Panthers were holding their own against the Cowboys in the first half as well, but Darnold’s two interceptions may have been decisive in that loss.
Darnold was helped during the first three games by having Christian McCaffrey in the backfield. But he was lost to injury against the Cowboys and Eagles and was later traded. More than that, it was apparent after the Cowboys and Eagles losses, that the team began losing confidence and the wheels began to fall off. The Panthers would win only two more games the rest of the season. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady was fired mid-season and Darnold went on IR for five games, then struggling the final three games of the season.
It’s important to remember that the 2021 Panthers (and the 2022 Panthers for that matter) were not a good team and coaching was not ideal. OC Joe Brady was a rookie play caller, and head coach Matt Rhule was already on the hot seat. And with the loss of McCaffrey, Darnold had only DJ Moore as a legit offensive weapon (although Chubba Hubbard did well at RB). Darnold’s offensive line was not good and opposing defenses could focus on shutting down Moore and pressuring Darnold as a successful strategy.
So, while Darnold benefited from having McCaffrey and perhaps an unknown scheme/playcaller with himself and Joe Brady early on, the loss of McCaffrey and a scheme that defenses figured out proved to be their undoing. And the Panthers simply didn’t have the talent and coaching to overcome… a lack of talent and coaching.
Darnold in 2024
While Darnold’s improved performance in 2024 is only one game, that performance was better than any game he’s played in five seasons from a composite of advanced metrics including PFF grade, adjusted EPA, QBR (which is another kind of adjusted EPA), and CPOE. That performance came against a bad team and can be discounted as a result, but it was also better than his average performances against bad teams in recent years.
But it does leave open the question of whether Darnold can perform at a high level against good teams too- something he hasn’t done much of in his career- along with elevating his performance consistently over his career average for an extended period. Only time will tell, but Sunday’s game against the 49ers will provide a big opportunity for Darnold to take another step toward proving last Sunday was no fluke.
And unlike previous years, he still has a good team around him and good coaching.
With Kirk Cousins, Kevin O’Connell tailored his play calls to those Cousins liked and he built in some decision making into progressions to direct Cousins to make certain throws in a given situation- leading him to be more aggressive at times. But with Darnold, O’Connell has reportedly focused on coaching Darnold to stay within the intent of the play (playing on time/rhythm, primary receiver, check down) to avoid some of Darnold’s shortcomings in the past such as turnovers. The Vikings are undefeated in the KOC era when they’ve tied or won the turnover battle, so this makes sense.
This coaching from Kevin O’Connell, if successful, would result in more of a fix for Darnold as it would help alleviate two of the problems that have plagued him the most: turnovers and inaccuracies caused by throwing off-rhythm (often late) or outside the play design. Darnold has had some issues processing as well at times, but perhaps maintaining a focus on play design and intent may help Darnold simplify his processing, and frequent use of presnap motion to help reveal coverage schemes.
What Could Go Wrong?
At this point Darnold hasn’t faced a real challenge as a Viking, and when things break down Darnold could slip back into his old ways, despite best efforts to prevent that from happening. The 49ers game on Sunday will likely be as big a challenge as Darnold is likely to see this season, so how he fares will be the first real test of KOC and Company’s approach to coaching Darnold and fixing his issues.
Injuries could also impact Darnold’s performance. Darnold himself has yet to remain healthy for a full season, and losses of key players on offense such as Aaron Jones or Justin Jefferson would add a degree of difficulty that Darnold may have difficulty overcoming.
Lastly, KOC’s approach to Darnold, if successful, would likely lead to a competent and effective game manager- something resembling a younger, more mobile Kirk Cousins. This isn’t meant to be a slight on Darnold as good game manager type quarterbacks can be successful point guards for top offenses and rank among the top dozen quarterbacks in the league. And perhaps having developed into a good on-schedule quarterback, Darnold could have some increased confidence and success off-schedule too- in time. But, like all quarterbacks- Patrick Mahomes included- he needs a solid team and coaching around him to show more consistent improvement over an extended period.
But for now, Darnold is on a path for a fix, rather than a sugar high that will fade over the course of the season. He may not perform as well this Sunday as last- which should be expected based on the quality of opponent- but he should show improvement over previous games against top teams.
Stay tuned.
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