Week 1 Colts’ Opposing QB: An analysis of C.J. Stroud

Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.

For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the upcoming opponent QB has performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)

DASHBOARD

The last opposing QB article I wrote was C.J. Stroud in week 18 last year, so I guess its come full circle. Not much has changed since my last analysis, but I’ll update the numbers anyway.

• The Texans rushing has been horrible, yet they are a run-first team who does not utilize shotgun much (26th edp, 29th arsr, 28th sg%). I think they pass more this year (just a guess).
• Last year, Stroud faced harder than average opponent passing defenses (10th opd) who gave him a zone look on 78% of his snaps (5th highest).
• He holds the ball a long time even though he isn’t pressured that often (4th ttt, 19th pr%).
• With all the time in the world to throw, Stroud is attempting and completing long passes (2nd adot, 1st ay/c).
• His accuracy is just average (19th cpoe), yet his receivers are getting extraordinary yac (9th yac, 6th yacoe). That is very unusual with such long completions and extended time to throw. I think he regresses in YAC this year.
• He responded to pressure by taking more sacks than scrambles (9th sck%, 17th scr% ). That is a weakness for a mobile QB.
• Still, he has not been pressured a lot, so those abandoned attempts don’t drag his per dropback efficiency down much and he has the 3rd highest net yards per dropback.
• He’s good at throwing first downs and TDs and avoids turnovers which is the tri-fecta of a good QB (4th 1st%, 10th TD rate, 29th to%).

He finished with the 7th best overall efficiency (7th epa/d), but his 15th ranked Passing Success Rate implies that a few high EPA events (e.g. explosive passes) are skewing his numbers. Removing 20+ yard attempts from the data causes his efficiency to fall to 15th.

He’s sitting in the upper right quadrant which is where you want your QB to be. However, I think he regresses a bit this year and moves more towards the middle.

HOW WELL?

He’s had a lot of extreme highs and lows, but on the whole he has been good, especially in that last game against the . . .oh, right.

HOW FAR?

He consistently throws the ball far.

TO WHO?

It will be interesting to watch Tank Dell this year. I expect him to close that gap on Nico Collins.

Upper right quadrant = receiver goodness.

HOW ACCURATE?

One of his weaknesses has been accuracy. On passes between 6 – 15 yards he has a below average completion rate. Yet, on passes over 20 yards he killed it. That’s not a picture of an accurate QB hitting guys deep. That is a not-so-accurate QB getting lucky on a few deep ones.

HOW FAST?

Even when adjusting for passing depth, Stroud holds the ball a long time. I don’t think that will serve him well.

TO WHERE?

Those deep passes are why his numbers overall efficiency was so good. Take that away and he’s just OK.

. . . Can we take that away?