Some QB predictions for the 2024 season

Prior to the last season, I made some predictions about some QBs and how they would fare in 2023 using solely numerical analysis. My results were pretty good and I really enjoyed “tracking” my predictions throughout the year. So, I thought I would try it again for 2024.

This time around, I will focus on the AFC South QBs. Unfortunately, Anthony Richardson just doesn’t have enough snaps to warrant a reasonable prediction from the data. However, I will show his numbers at the end and point out things I will be watching for in 2024.

On with the prognosticating.

C.J. Stroud will regress somewhat in 2024.

Stroud had a very good rookie year. He finished with the 2nd highest yards per attempt, had a top 10 TD rate and the 3rd lowest INT%. All of that combined to give him the 7th highest EPA per dropback (epa/d).

Yet, despite those impressive results, I see other stats that lead me to believe, he won’t repeat that level of play. Here’s why.

Undeserved YAC : Many feel that yards after the catch is a result of receiver talent, but I am a firm believer that YAC is primarily caused by QB play. A QB that quickly and accurately hits a receiver in stride will see a lot of YAC on his passes.

However, Stroud is neither quick nor accurate. Last year, he had the 4th longest time to throw (ttt) and a below average accuracy (19th cpoe). In addition, he had the 2nd longest average depth of target (adot) in the league, which normally earns minimal YAC. Yet despite all of that, his passes earned the 9th highest average yards after the catch.

This is what I call “undeserved” YAC. The additional yards was more a function of unplanned events than it was by designed plays and skill and therfore, is likely unrepeatable. If he continues to take a long time to throw deep and/or inaccurate passes, his YAC yardage will fall dramatically.

Average Passing Success Rate (PSR): Somewhat related to the above, Stroud lived and died by the big play. While his EPA per dropback was 7th best, he had only the 14th ranked success rate. What that means is that he had an average volume of successes, but a portion of those successes were inordinately successful and that is simply hard to repeat.

If I remove all league pass attempts that were 20+ yards, Stroud’s EPA rank drops 8 spots to 15th, which describes how he performed on the vast majority of his dropbacks. Anytime a QB has a high EPA/d and a “meh” PSR, then it is pretty likely he will regress in the future (Jordan Love falls into this camp too).

As for a specific prediction, I’ll say that Stroud’s success rate remains around the same at 14th and that his EPA/d falls closer to average, let’s say below 12th. Also, his net yards per dropback, which was 3rd in 2023 falls below 10th next year.

Will Levis stays horrible.

Last year, Levis ranked 24th in EPA/d and 29th in PSR, so there is still room to fall and he just might do it in 2024. Here’s why.

Opponent Defense: He faced the 8th easiest passing defenses last year, so odds are this year will be tougher. Defenses played zone against him 81% of the time, daring him to beat them underneath, which he didn’t and unless he improves his 21st ranked accuracy (cpoe), he won’t beat them underneath this year either.

Reaction to Pressure: Levis was the 2nd most pressured QB last year and responded to that pressure by taking sacks instead of scrambling or throwing the ball away (4th sck%, 22nd scr%, 30th ta%). A QB can survive pressure if he makes smart decisions and Levis doesn’t.

However, the Titans brought in a new center and spent thier first pick on a left tackle, so maybe they can bring that pressure rate down. I doubt it though. Levis had the longest attempted passes in the league and that tends to goes hand in hand with pressure.

I project him to again be a bottom 10 QB in terms of EPA/d and PSR.

Trevor Lawrence will be a top 10 QB

Trevor Lawrence has had an interesting 3 years. After a poor rookie year, he dramatically boosted his performance in 2022 to finish 8th in EPA/d and 4th in PSR. However, last year he took a step back to finish 16th and 10th in those respective stats.

I think this year, he looks more like he did in 2022 and ends up a top 10 efficiency QB. Here’s why.

Opponent Defense: In 2023, Lawrence faced the 5th hardest schedule for passing defense, so he should have an easier path this year. In 2022, he found success throwing quick, short, accurate passes (30th ttt, 20th adot, 9th cpoe). In 2023, he threw deep passes (9th adot) into primarily zone coverage and it didn’t go well. I expect the Jags to return to a shorter more successful passing game.

Turnovers: One of the reasons, he did better in 2022, was that he had a below average turnover rate (to%). Last year he finished 4th in TO%, dragging his other numbers down as well. However, ¹⁄₃ of those turnovers were lost fumbles. Fumbles and fumble recoveries are very flukey (random) and so I will be shocked if he doesn’t reduce that number this year.

There are reasons I think he will reduce his number of picks this year as well, but I’ll leave that for the end of season recap if I’m right. Of course, if I’m wrong, you’ll never hear about it again.

Prediction: Top 10 in efficiency (EPA/d) and success rate (PSR).

Anthony Richardson will ???

As I stated earlier, there just isn’t enough data to make a stats based prediction for AR, but I’ll walk through the primary stats I look at and tell you if I see anything hopeful/concerning.

• On the plays with AR under center the Colts did not rush well, but despite that, they led a balanced offense utilizing shotgun at a higher rate than any other team (27th arsr, 15th edp, 1st sg%).
• Richardson faced easy passing defenses that gave him a more often than average zone look (28th opd, 13th oz%).
• AR did not face much pressure and he got rid of the ball fairly quickly even though he had an average passing depth (24th pr%, 21st ttt, 15th adot)
• His accuracy was very poor, tanking his completion rate and resulting in fairly short depth of completions (32nd cpoe, 31st cmp%, 21st ay/c). Accuracy was an issue in college and is something he really needs to improve on to compete in the NFL.
• His throws earned a lot of YAC, which is normal for shorter throws and right about average for expected yac (3rd yac, 12th yacoe).
• That all adds up to a 22nd ranked yards per attempt, which is not ideal. Poor accuracy is the biggest driver of this result.
• He handles pressure primarily by scrambling, which is what you want to see, but he also takes a lot of sacks instead of throwing the ball away, which is not what you want to see (6th scr%, 20th ta%, 7th sck%).
• His overall abandoned attempt rate is too high (8th aa%). That level of bailing on the pass will only work if he can decrease sacks and increase scrambles/throw aways. Better yet, adapt to the pressure and make a pass attempt.
• The good news is that when he does abandon the play he earns the 9th highest average yards, which keeps his overall yardage efficiency from falling further (9th yaa, 22nd ny/d).
• He was very good at throwing first downs and not turning the ball over (11th 1st%, 32nd to%), but he did not earn many TDs (26th td%).

His average value per play was very good (9th epa/d), but his success rate was pretty poor (24th psr). This means he had a few big value plays, but didn’t grind out a lot of successful ones.

As I said, there are too few snaps for the numbers to be of any predictive value, but I will be keeping my eye on his accuracy (cpoe) and his abandoned rate (aa%). If he is inaccurate and abandons the pass a lot, we’re in trouble.

CONCLUSION

There are a lot of other predictions that I wanted to include (Russell Wilson will be horrible in Pittsburgh, Justin Herbert still won’t be a top 10 QB), but this article is already long enough.

Predictions are easy to make, but difficult to get right. My analysis is based on past data and inferred probabilities from what I have seen. They are educated guesses that ignore an unknown number of variables that have a very real impact on outcomes. In other words, I wouldn’t be shocked if I get all of these wrong.