Vikings @ Giants Preview

A closer look at the Vikings’ Week One Matchup

It’s officially Week One of the 2024-25 NFL season. The Minnesota Vikings travel to The Meadowlands to face the New York Giants to kick off the season.

Let’s take a look at the matchup.

PFF Matchup

Below are the starting lineups in nickel defense and 11 offensive personnel according to Pro Football Focus (PFF). The player grades are their 2023 season grades where available- no grades for rookies. I suspect, however, that Andrew Van Ginkel will replace Jihad Ward for the Vikings defensively (91.1 grade) and that Josh Oliver (75.1 grade) will start at tight end for the Vikings, not Johnny Mundt. Oliver was listed as the starter in the latest Vikings’ official depth chart.

For the Giants, they’ve got Devin Singletary (75.1 grade) at RB along with the rookie Tyrone Tracy shown below.

Vikings Offense vs. Giants Defense

Giants Offense vs. Vikings Defense

Key Matchups

When the Vikings have the ball, one of the key matchups will be the interior line versus Dexter Lawrence. Lawrence was the top graded defensive tackle last season and was a menace the last time the Vikings faced the Giants. That matchup should be a good early indication of where the interior line is at relative to the last games against the Giants in 2022. The Giants picked up edge rusher Brian Burns this off-season, but with Darrisaw and O’Neill, I don’t expect him to have a big game.

The second matchup is the Vikings’ receivers versus the Giants’ defensive backs. Both Giants’ outside corners are coming off weak seasons and their safeties aren’t much better. Their slot corner is a rookie third-round pick in his first game. This is a matchup for the Vikings and Sam Darnold to exploit every which way they can and could lead to a confidence-building first outing in purple for Darnold.

It’s also important to note that the Giants have a new defensive coordinator since the last matchup. Gone is Wink Martindale and his blitz-heavy, man coverage scheme and in is Shane Bowen and more of a four-man (five-man in base) single-gap penetrating style defensive line without much blitzing and more zone coverage in the secondary with some pattern matching mixed in and two-high safeties. Bowen likes to use wide-9 edge rushers on passing downs to spread out the offensive line along with 3-techs to allow the defensive tackles (Dexter Lawrence) one-on-one matchups against the guards.

This approach and the Giants defensive personnel should allow for some opportunities in the run game. Lawrence is the only good run defender among the Giants’ starters on defense. It also opens up any number of Cover-2 beaters in the passing game.

I could also see some play-action passes out of 12-personnel (2WRs, and 2TEs or 1 TE and 1 FB).

When the Giants have the ball, key matchups will be the Vikings secondary on Malik Nabors, and the Flores pass rush versus the Giants’ offensive line. The Giants are okay at tackle, good at right guard, and weak at left guard and center. But how they handle Flores’ blitz packages will be interesting. And with the new edge rushers should be fun to watch.

The Giants will want to get Nabors the ball as early and often as possible, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Flores has a plan for defending him even as a rookie in his first game. It will also be interesting to see how the new Vikings’ corners do in general.

Sam Darnold

Of course Sam Darnold will be the focus for all Vikings’ fans, as the new starting quarterback on whose performance the Vikings’ season hinges upon. How he does in his first game, win or lose, could influence how KOC steers the offense in the future and whether he continues with something similar to when Kirk Cousins was quarterback or if he decides to take more off his plate from a passing standpoint.

Surprise!

One of the most difficult things about the first few games of the season is that opponents have new stuff you don’t know about yet because it’s not on tape. Whether on offense or defense, surprises can cause problems if coaches and players are not prepared to deal with them. It helps to have veteran players and coaches who, while they may not have been expecting this or that from the current opponent, have seen it before with other teams and know how to respond to it.

The Vikings are pretty good in that regard at both the player and coaching level, but surprises can mess up the call sheet. And for teams with a new coordinator and scheme and some young players, they may not have installed a play to respond to whatever the opponent has surprised them with or leaves them with only a second-best option.

And this season, with the new kickoff rule, there could be some interesting plays teams have designed- but not shown in preseason- that could surprise as well.

Game Line

The lowly Vikings are a 1.5-point road favorite against the Giants- which tells you how bad the Giants are expected to be this season. The Vikings are also -125 moneyline favorites, implying a 55.6% chance of winning. The over/under point total is 41.

Weather for the game is expected to be sunny and around 70 degrees.