Mailbag: 5 things that must happen for Detroit Lions to meet expectations

A look at five things that must happen for the Detroit Lions to meet expectations in the 2024 season—along with other mailbag questions.

Earlier in the week, Erik Schlitt and I recorded a podcast answering all of your Detroit Lions questions for Week 1. Well, not all of them. There were plenty of leftover questions, and beginning this year, I wanted to try and commit to doing both a podcast mailbag and a written mailbag each week. No promises that I’ll be able to keep up for the entire year, but it’s Week 1. It’s special. Let’s give the people what they want!

While I do think Tim Patrick eventually wins out the WR-X position, I think that will be more of a part-time role than we’re making it out to be. Meanwhile, a month ago, offensive coordinator Ben Johnson noted that Kalif Raymond will be “a big part” of the offense. Raymond is averaging 560 receiving yards in three years in Detroit, and while Patrick has two seasons of 700+ yards, I don’t think he’ll reach that level in 2024.

Well, if there are no serious injuries and the players play to their potential, the only real factors left over that could sink Detroit are opponent improvement and bad luck. The NFC will be more competitive and the division could produce three teams this year. As for the bad luck, Detroit could find themselves on the bad end of officiating, poor fumble luck, or just be the victim of one bad game in the playoffs. Since expectations are Super Bowl or bust, it’s very possible they just have one letdown game in the playoffs and it’s over. Single-elimination football means it’s not always the best team that advances.

5 things that have to go right for a deep playoff run:

1. There can be no regression on the offensive line

Everyone understandably assumes the Lions have the best offensive line in football, but over half of their starters are over 30 years old. It’s quite possible some of those players are on the downslide of their career. But Detroit can’t afford that. Their entire offense depends on a punishing run game and good pass protection.

2. Jameson Williams must hit at least 800 all-purpose yards

The Lions have ample weapons in Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, David Montgomery, and Jahmyr Gibbs, but there’s no doubt that they also expect Jameson Williams to take a massive jump this year. This isn’t about replacing Josh Reynolds, this is about forging his own path as a versatile weapon. The deep shots and end-arounds are nice and will do wonders to open space for the rest of the offense. But when it’s third down and both St. Brown and LaPorta are getting bracketed, they’re going to need Williams to win his one-on-ones and hold onto the ball in traffic.

3. A pass rusher not named Aidan Hutchinson to emerge

Hutchinson will continue to be a pain in the ass to the opponent’s offensive line, but Detroit needs those pressures to turn into sacks—and not necessarily sacks from Hutchinson. So often last year, Hutchinson’s pressure was just funneling the quarterback into open space elsewhere. But with the growth of Alim McNeill, the addition of DJ Reader, and breakout candidates in both Levi Onwuzurike and Marcus Davenport, hopefully that will be enough to bring the heat from all angles.

4. The secondary overhaul has to actually work

The Lions have changed faces in the secondary for two straight offseasons, but change doesn’t always mean improvement. Is Carlton Davis ready to step into a CB1 role? How long before rookie Terrion Arnold looks like an NFL cornerback? Will Brian Branch truly make more plays in his move to safety? These are a lot of serious questions with unclear answers, but if they fall in Detroit’s favor, it’s going to lead to massive improvement in the team overall.

5. Coaching staff stays true to itself

This is the one I’m least worried about. The reason the Lions were able to get as far as they did last year was because of their aggression. The fourth down decisions extended drives, gave Detroit seven points instead of three, and kept defenses gassed. I trust Dan Campbell to ignore the largely unwarranted criticism from the NFC Championship Game and keep the pressure on.

I would say yes and no. On one hand, Penei Sewell proves they are willing to draft an offensive lineman highly, and I don’t think there’s been a hugely pressing need at the position. On the other hand, I don’t think you draft long-term projects like Giovanni Manu and Colby Sorsdal unless you have a large amount of confidence in your offensive line coach.

Still, I think the ceiling of those two players are probably career backups, so don’t be surprised if the Lions draft an interior offensive lineman or two early next year.

Another theory is that the Lions just don’t put a high money or draft capital value on guards. They let Johan Jackson walk, they haven’t taken a Day 1 or Day 2 interior offensive lineman, and they went bargain bin shopping with both Kevin Zeitler and Graham Glasgow, as talented as both are.

This is going to sound cocky, but none of them. Obviously, Braden Fiske and Jared Verse will get the most playing time and both could have outstanding careers. But drawing the Lions offensive line in their first NFL game is a tough assignment, and I expect them both to have relatively quiet debuts.

In a lot of ways, you are correct. We know Glenn wants to play a man-heavy defense that is aggressive in their pass rush while dominant against the run. He has all the pieces he could possibly want to run that defense. So if it doesn’t click, there should certainly be some loud concerns.

But I also think this mindset undersells what Glenn has already accomplished. For all the complaints about the overall defense, it’s worth reminding everyone that Detroit has the second best run defense in the NFL last year. Under Glenn, the Lions have two of the best young defensive linemen in football (Hutchinson, McNeill), produced an impressive linebacking room, and two play-making players in the secondary (Brian Branch, Kerby Joseph). Yes, the lapses in the secondary have been an ongoing issue—and that is kind of Glenn’s specialty as a former NFL cornerback—but it’s pretty easy to see the personnel deficiencies they’ve had in the past.

My primary concern is probably the offensive line depth. It’s a problem that every team has, but it’s so important to what the Lions do that I’m not sure how this team survives a long-term injury to any of their starters. Granted, they held up okay when Taylor Decker, Jonah Jackson, and Frank Ragnow all missed at least a couple games, but I don’t love that Kayode Awosika and Dan Skipper are both just a snap away from playing.

I think Hutch is saying what we’re hearing from just about everyone: this defensive line feels awfully different this year, and defensive line coach Terrell Williams will deserve a lot of credit for its success. But don’t take my word for it. Listen to what some of the players on offense have been saying.

Taylor Decker:

“That defensive line is much improved, in my opinion. They’re flying around. They’re playing aggressive, trying to make plays. It seems like they’ve got some depth where they can roll some guys through there who can make some plays. So a very disruptive front. I think they’re playing with a lot of confidence.”

Jahmyr Gibbs:

“Defense, man, they’re different. I ain’t gonna lie. It’s hard playing against them every day. So I’m happy they get to hit somebody else.”

Ben Johnson:

“Up front, Aidan and Alim, as you would think. Shoot, we tried to double-team Alim the other day, we could barely move him off the ball. He’s got a low center of gravity and did a really nice job on us.”

I’ve been fooled by perceived defensive line improvements before, but this truly does feel different. It’s a combination of youth developing, new additions, and a widely-praised position coach.