Forecast for the Vikings’ 2024 Season

The Minnesota Vikings are officially into Week One of the 2024 NFL season and its time to make some predictions about how this season will play out for our favorite team.

Past Track Record

This will be my ninth prediction over the past ten seasons, having abandoned any prediction in 2016 after Teddy Bridgewater went down just prior to the start of the season. Here are the results:

2015

Prediction: 10-6. Actual: 11-5. Preseason over/under: 7.5

2016

No prediction after Bridgewater went down. Acutal: 8-8. Preseason over/under: 9.5 (pre-Bridgewater injury).

2017

Prediction: 12-4. Actual: 13-3. Preseason over/under: 8.5

2018

Prediction: 13-3. Actual: 8-7-1. Preseason over/under: 10

2019

Prediction: 11-5. Actual: 10-6. Preseason over/under: 9.

2020

Prediction: 11-5. Actual: 7-9. Preseason over/under: 8.5 (March)

2021

Prediction: 13-4. Actual: 8-9. Preseason over/under: 9.

2022

Prediction: 12-5. Actual: 13-4. Preseason over/under: 9.5.

2023

Prediction: 11-6. Actual: 7-10. Preseason over/under: 8.5.

Last season’s prediction turned out to be four games too high and was easily attributable to Kirk Cousins going down to injury during Week 8, and to a lesser extent Justin Jefferson also missing half the season. My predictions are always made under the assumption of something close to “normal” in terms of injuries over the course of the season and losing a starting quarterback for half the season typically has an adverse impact (though not in 2017) and isn’t a ‘normal’ injury scenario for any team. I suspect if Cousins had not been injured, however, the Vikings would’ve ended pretty close to my 11-6 prediction, so I continue to like the process I’ve used the last two seasons in making my forecast.

The 2024 Consensus View

The over/under win total for the Vikings this season by oddsmakers suggests a 7-10 record is the most likely outcome for the Vikings this season, although I’ve seen one or two lower than that. A rough consensus is a 6.5 over/under win total for the season. If anything, national pundit predictions come in lower than that, confirming that oddsmakers and national sports media take a dim view of the Vikings’ 2024 season.

Clearly starting quarterback Sam Darnold is the primary reason for the dim view of the Vikings’ prospects this season, coupled with more excitement around all of the Vikings’ NFC North rivals. But whatever the reason, the Vikings have been written-off as also-rans for the 2024-25 season.

From a division perspective, the Lions are +140 to win the division, followed by the Packers at +200 and the Bears at +275 followed by the Vikings after a substantial gap down at +950.

Analyzing the Changes from Last Season

In analyzing the changes for the Vikings since last season, I consider the following major components: roster changes, coaching/scheme changes, sustainability factors such as outliers in injuries, turnovers, and other luck factors, and finally strength of schedule. I then assign a positive or negative win factor for each component to arrive at the net change in wins from the previous season.

Roster Changes

Here is a breakdown of roster changes for the Vikings since last season, by position group, along with a positive (+), negative (-) or about the same (=) assessment of those changes relative to last season.

Quarterback (=). If we are comparing Kirk Cousins to Sam Darnold, this would be a downgrade. But the relevant comparison is Kirk Cousins, Jaren Hall, Josh Dobbs, and Nick Mullens to Sam Darnold, as those were the guys who played quarterback for the Vikings last season. And given that, an equal comparison is the most appropriate. Darnold isn’t likely to be as good as Cousins (although he has that upside), but he’s likely better than the backups that played just over half the season last year too.

I did a piece a week or two ago on Sam Darnold, outlining his previous performance and issues going forward, along with the positive team factors he has with the Vikings. Clearly Darnold is in the best situation he’s ever had as a starter in terms of the players around him, but he also has better coaching and play-calling- something I didn’t go into as much in that piece. But consider these are the offensive coordinators and play callers for Darnold since he entered the league, with head coaches listed if offensive-minded:

• 2018: Jeremy Bates. Bates has not coached in the NFL since.
• 2019-2020: Adam Gase (head coach) and Dowell Loggains (OC). Apparently both Gase and Loggains called plays for the Jets, depending on the situation (red zone, two-minute, goal line, run, pass, etc.). Loggains and Gase have not coached in the NFL since.
• 2021: Matt Rhule (HC) Joe Brady (OC and playcaller) and later Jeff Nixon. Brady was fired mid-season and replaced with Jeff Nixon. Brady didn’t coach for a year but then became OC for the Bills in 2023. Nixon was demoted back to running backs coach in 2022 before being fired. He became running backs coach for the Giants in 2023 and was fired now coaches at Syracuse.
• 2022: Matt Rhule (HC), Ben McAdoo (OC). Rhule was fired after the 2022 season and now coaches at Nebraska. McAdoo was also fired, did not coach in 2023, and is now a Senior offensive assistant with the Patriots.

Of all these coaches, only Joe Brady remains a key part of an NFL coaching staff. Brady was a rookie OC when he coached Darnold. So it’s not too much to say that not only did Darnold not have good coaching, he had a collection of the worst offensive coaches in the NFL in recent years.

As a result, Darnold has said in the past he often felt he had to do it all, primarily because he didn’t have much quality help either from the coaching staff or the team around him. Now Darnold said he feels more like he just needs to distribute the ball effectively and everything else will take care of itself, relieving a lot of pressure he was feeling in previous stops as a starter.

But while having less pressure on him will be helpful, Darnold still needs to distribute the ball effectively- with accuracy and eliminating turnovers.

Overall, it’s not too much to expect Darnold to be an average starting quarterback this season for the Vikings, and perhaps even above average.

Running Back (+). Aaron Jones is better than Alexander Mattison last season and should be a clear upgrade.

Wide Receiver (+). Presumably Justin Jefferson won’t miss half the season, Jordan Addison in year two will be better than in year one, and Jalen Nailor will be an upgrade over KJ Osborn. Clear upgrade.

Offensive Line (=). It’s reasonable to expect the same performance at every position compared to last year, as it’s questionable whether Ed Ingram will improve and reasonable to expect Blake Brandel to be roughly similar to Dalton Risner last season. Risner could also end up replacing one of them if they aren’t.

Tight End (=). Losing Hockenson for the first four games is a negative, but he missed two games last season and I’m not sure two additional games is enough for a downgrade.

Interior Defensive Line (=). There is a potential for a positive here if Jerry Tillery provides it or the backups prove better in rotation, but not enough to count on at this point.

Edge Rushers (++). Even with the loss of Danielle Hunter, this looks to be a much improved group overall. Greenard, Van Ginkel, and Turner will generate more pressures- and more early pressures- than Hunter, Wonnum, and Jones did last season.

Inside Linebackers (+). Jordan Hicks had a decent season last year but Cashman should be a bit better overall, and Ivan Pace in year two should improve over year one. Modest upgrade here.

Cornerback (++). Stephon Gilmore, even at age 34, Shaq Griffin, and Byron Murphy Jr. playing slot corner is a notable improvement over Akayleb Evans, Murphy switching between outside and slot corner, and Mekhi Blackmon and Josh Metellus also playing outside and as slot corner, respectively last season. This season’s group will also allow for more man coverage and scheme flexibility that should help too.

Safety (=). Not much change here among the main contributors- Cam Bynum, Harrison Smith, and Josh Metellus. Smith being a year older is a negative, but he may also get fewer reps this season if Metellus rotates with him at times to help keep him fresh.

Specialists (=). There is potential for Reichard to be better than Greg Joseph. Also wouldn’t be surprised if Ryan Wright improves after a poor sophomore season. But I’m not counting chickens before they hatch with this group. Losing Nwangwu may be a negative, but probably not a big one either.

Overall, I didn’t have any position group marked as a downgrade and believe that is justified as above. And there are several groups that look to be upgrades, leading to an overall positive for the roster this season compared to last season.

Coaching/Scheme Changes

No coaching changes this season for the Vikings and that continuity should be a mild positive for players in the system last season. But I do expect some minor scheme changes on both sides of the ball, but mostly on defense. I expect Brian Flores to play more man coverage than last season (he only played man coverage 7% last year) given the new starting cornerbacks. That should help his blitz-heavy scheme against the short outlet passes that defeated it last season and also make it less predictable.

Offensively, the scheme and playcalling is likely to adjust somewhat as well, to better fit with Sam Darnold. That could include more rollouts/boots to take advantage of Darnold’s better mobility compared to Cousins, and potentially route patterns and run/pass mix overall depending on the success of the run game with Aaron Jones and Ty Chandler.

I expect the changes defensively to have a bigger impact than the offensive ones.

Sustainability Factors

Beyond changes to the roster and scheme/coaching staff that can impact a team’s performance year over year, there are also what I call sustainability factors. These are outliers in things like injuries, turnovers, and other on-field luck factors like field goal percentage for and against, fumble recovery percentage, etc. For example, a team that ranks really high or low in the number of takeaways last season, that’s probably unsustainable into the new season, and so an adjustment reflecting some regression to the mean is factored into the win total.

Injuries

The Vikings lost their starting quarterback and their star wide receiver last season which represents bad injury luck. But I’ve already accounted for those losses in the roster changes above, so I won’t count those again here.

The Vikings ranked 15th in adjusted games lost due to injury last season at 60.4, near to average although the impact was still understated with a starting quarterback going down. But otherwise that is near to average and so I don’t think any adjustments are needed to account for an outlier season that weren’t accounted for in the roster changes above. Prior to last season, the Vikings had ranked 5th and Tyler Williams had a track record dating back to 2016 of being in the top ten- and mostly top five- in least games lost due to injury. That track record was long enough for me to predict that the Viking would continue to have a relatively low amount of injuries last season, which wasn’t the case. But overall the Vikings have one of the better training/sports science programs in the NFL and that should continue to help with preventing injuries.

Turnovers

Turnovers are highly correlated to winning and losing and last season the Vikings ranked 31st in giveaways with 34 total- which was an outlier. The defense ranked 19th in takeaways with 22, which was close to average. Overall, I expect some regression to the mean in giveaways this season- which has also been a point of emphasis with Kevin O’Connell this off-season- which translates into a positive for this season over last.

Other Luck Factors

Lastly, the Vikings ranked dead last in Net Win Probability added in 2023 due to what are considered luck factors- dropped interceptions and passes, field goals and extra points missed, and fumble recoveries. Overall, those factors subtracted a cumulative 171.6% in net win probability for the Vikings last season. Regression toward the mean in this area therefore would result in a significant net positive for the Vikings this season.

Strength of Schedule

How tough a team’s slate of opponents for the season can significantly affect winning percentage for the season. Comparing strength of schedule based on the over/under number for projected wins (rather than last year’s winning %) better takes into account changes from last season as they affect projected winning %. This season, the Vikings have the 28th easiest schedule, as reflected in this strength of schedule graph, updated as of 8/26/24:

Last season at this time, the Vikings were projected to have the 27th easiest schedule- not much change from this year. However, based on actual win totals for the 2023 season, the Vikings ended up with the 19th easiest schedule. So, having a projected 28th easiest schedule is tougher than the 19th easiest schedule they had last season, resulting in a negative factor for this season.

Here is the Vikings’ regular season schedule:

• Week 1: @ New York Giants
• Week 2: San Francisco 49ers
• Week 3: Houston Texans
• Week 4: @ Green Bay Packers
• Week 5: New York Jets (London)
• Week 6: BYE
• Week 7: Detroit Lions
• Week 8: @ LA Rams (Thursday night)
• Week 9: Indianapolis Colts
• Week 10: @ Jacksonville Jaguars
• Week 11: @ Tennessee Titans
• Week 12: @ Chicago Bears
• Week 13: Arizona Cardinals
• Week 14: Atlanta Falcons
• Week 15: Chicago Bears (Monday night)
• Week 16: @ Seattle Seahawks
• Week 17: Green Bay Packers
• Week 18: @ Detroit Lions

Adding It All Up

Now that I’ve gone through all the change factors from last season to this season, let’s add them all up and add their net impact to the Vikings’ 7-10 season last year.

Roster Changes (+1)

Overall roster changes I estimate adding an additional win to the Vikings total this season. Most of those are on the defensive side but having a healthy and somewhat improved receiver group is a positive too.

Coaching/Scheme Changes (0)

While there may be minor changes on both sides, not enough to move the dial much overall.

Sustainability Factors (+3)

The Vikings were outliers on giveaways and extreme outliers on other luck factors last season. Regression to the mean in giveaways adds one win to the Vikings’ total, while the same for other luck factors adds two wins.

Strength of Schedule (-1)

Going from the 19th easiest schedule last season by opponent actual win totals to the 28th easiest this season by projected win totals results in an additional loss for the Vikings this season.

Bottom Line

Total net changes from last season result in a net +3 to the Vikings win total over last season.

Final Prediction: 10-7

My forecast for the Vikings is a 10-7 season, a solid 3.5 games above the over/under of 6.5 wins this season. Most of that is attributable to the sustainability factors that are often not accounted for when projecting from one season to the next. And yet it is known that things like luck factors and turnovers, when outliers, are unlikely to persist year after year and regression toward the mean is normal.

Whether or not 10-7 is good enough to win the division or make the playoffs remains to be seen. It’s a record that’s been on the bubble for both in the past, although usually good enough for at least a wild card spot, depending on tiebreakers. And given that all the other NFC North teams are forecast to have around 9 or 10 wins as the most likely outcome, it’s difficult to say even what place the Vikings would finish in the division.

Stay tuned.

Follow me on X @wludford

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