Vikings’ NFC North Rival Oppo Research: Green Bay Packers

In my second installment on oppo research on the Minnesota Vikings’ NFC North rivals, I take a closer look into the Green Bay Packers.

Recap of the Packers’ 2023 Season

The 2023 season was a tale of two halves for the Packers. The first half ended with a 3-6 record and fear and loathing in Packerland about the future of Jordan Love. After a 38-20 dismantling of the hapless Bears to start the season, the Packers’ offense was generating just 17.6 points per game on average during that span. And over the first eight games, Jordan Love was averaging just under 200 yards per game passing, with 8 of his 11 interceptions during the regular season occurring in that same span. Love had a stretch of five games between weeks 3-8 where his average passer rating was just 66.3.

To be honest, the Packers were lucky to beat the Saints in week 3, as the Saints were up 17-0 in the third quarter when Derek Carr was injured and left the game, allowing the Packers to pull off an 18-17 comeback. Similarly, they faced the Rams- quarterbacked by Brett Rypien- in week 9, leading to a three-point offensive showing for the Rams and an easy win for the Packers. Otherwise, they would’ve likely been 1-8 after week ten with an eight-game losing streak and looking to 2024.

But starting week 9, Jordan Love began to improve. His adjusted completion percentage (on-target passes not including drops or throw-aways) went from 65.9% over the first eight weeks- worst in the league and borderline off-the-charts bad- to 77.8% from weeks 9-18 which was sixth-best over that span. Love’s average passing yards per game improved to 263, and with only 3 interceptions. That helped the Packers finish the season 6-2 and sneak into the playoffs as a wildcard with a 9-8 record.

The capstone of Love’s second-half performance came in a 48-32 embarrassment of the Dallas Cowboys in the Wildcard Round in which Love had just 16 completions (out of 21 attempts) but for 272 yards and 3 TDs and a near-perfect 157.2 passer rating.

Unfortunately for Packers fans, Love’s next game in the Divisional Round against the 49ers encapsulated Love’s first half of the season performance, in which he went 21/34 for 194 yards (63.6 adjusted completion percentage), 2 TDs and 2 INTs, ending the Packers season.

Outside of Jordan Love, the Packers had a solid ground game last season, ranking 9th in yards per attempt with AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones providing a solid 1-2 punch. Overall, the Packers finished the season ranked 12th in points and 11th in yards offensively.

The Packers also had a solid defense that ranked 10th in points allowed and 17th in yards allowed. They did not produce many takeaways, however, and were weak against the run.

In DVOA terms, the Packers finished 13th in total DVOA at 1.6%. They ranked 6th in offensive DVOA at 13%, but just 27th in defensive DVOA at +8.2% (negative is better).

Lastly, while it’s often said that the Packers have been the luckiest team when it comes to the ball going the right way for them, last year they actually were the luckiest team.

The chart above shows the key ‘luck factors’ and the cumulative net win probability added over the course of the 2023 season. The Packers were easily the luckiest team in the league last year by this measure, which is something typically not sustainable year-to-year and suggests the Packers could be susceptible to some reversion to the mean this season.

The Packers ranked 24th in adjusted games lost due to injury. All-Pro LT David Bakhtiari missed almost the entire season, but that was more-or-less a known issue going into the season. CB Jaire Alexander missed half the season, as did S Darnell Savage, while CB Eric Stokes missed twelve games. The Packers also were beat up at running back, with Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, and Emanuel Wilson all missing several games. WR Christian Watson also missed several games. Overall, however, if you subtract Bakhtiari as being a known, preseason issue, the Packers were about average last season when it came to injuries.

Coaching Changes

The Packers moved on from defensive coordinator Joe Barry this season, replacing him with Jeff Hafley. Hafley last coached in the NFL as defensive backs coach for the 49ers back in 2018 before coaching in college for Ohio State as co-defensive coordinator in 2019 and then head coach of Boston College for four seasons. Hafley is known for an aggressive style of defense with a penetrating defensive front including more linebacker blitzes, with single-high safety behind and either man coverage or a cover-3 zone. That can lead to more of a feast-or-famine result depending on the quality of defenders. This is his first season as a defensive coordinator in the NFL.

Otherwise, the Packers have continuity with head coach Matt LaFleur, offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich, and special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia.

Player Moves

After letting Aaron Jones go, the Packers signed Josh Jacobs to be their lead back this season. He’ll likely be the bellcow back for them this season, but share carries with third-round pick MarShawn Lloyd. After a stellar 2022 season, Jacobs had an average 2023 campaign for the Raiders, who didn’t make much of an effort to extend him. His elusive rating- a PFF stat meant to measure the success and impact of a runner independent of blocking, has declined consistently since his rookie season in 2019.

The biggest free agency signing for the Packers was safety Xavier McKinney, who is coming off his best season with the Giants in 2023 and will replace Darnell Savage.

The Packers drafted G Jordan Morgan in the first round, followed by LB Edgerrin Cooper and S Javon Bullard in the second round. Morgan looks to be a backup initially behind 2022 3rd round pick Sean Rhyan, and Cooper at LB, along with 3rd round pick Ty’ron Hopper, while Bullard will be a starter at safety. 3rd round pick MarShawn Lloyd will backup Josh Jabobs at running back. Of the Packers remaining six draft picks, I believe only one- backup center Jacob Monk- made the 53-man roster.

Lastly, the Packers opted to move on from kicker Anders Carlson. It looked like former Viking Greg Joseph had won the job, but instead the Packers did not have a kicker on their initial 53-man roster. They later added UDFA Brayden Narveson, who was cut by the Titans, and will be their kicker to start the regular season.

Injuries

The Packers have lost running back A.J. Dillon for the season due to a neck injury. Running back MarShawn Lloyd has also missed time recently in preseason and practices with a hamstring injury but is expected to be healthy for week one.

Schedule

The Packers have a tough schedule with just a few more marginal opponents in the Titans, Cardinals, and Saints. The Cardinals and Titans could be tougher than expected. The only consolation is they have a good bye week slot. And when it comes to national games, be careful what you wish for. Traveling to Brazil to start the season and then four national games in a row late in the season- all but one against tough opponents and/or on the road. And most games before their bye week are tough matchups. If the Packers get to double-digit victories this season, they will have earned it. But I have my doubts about that.

• Week 1: @ Philadelphia Eagles (Friday night in Brazil)
• Week 2: Indianapolis Colts
• Week 3: @ Tennessee Titans
• Week 4: Minnesota Vikings
• Week 5: @ LA Rams
• Week 6: Arizona Cardinals
• Week 7: Houston Texans
• Week 8: @ Jacksonville Jaguars
• Week 9: Detroit Lions
• Week 10: BYE
• Week 11: @ Chicago Bears
• Week 12: San Francisco 49ers
• Week 13: Miami Dolphins (Thursday night)
• Week 14: @ Detroit Lions (Thursday night)
• Week 15: @ Seattle Seahawks (Sunday night)
• Week 16: New Orleans Saints (Monday night)
• Week 17: @ Minnesota Vikings
• Week 18: Chicago Bears

Forecast for 2024

The over/under win total odds for the Packers this season suggest a 10-7 record is the most likely outcome. But I would be surprised if the Packers finished that well. Clearly there is enthusiasm for Love continuing his 2023 second-half performance in 2024, but there is room for doubt about his consistency. Combine that with a tougher schedule this season compared to last, and a regression to the mean when it comes to luck factors, and it would not be surprising if the Packers ended closer to .500 or even below.

The Packers will start a new right guard and are weak at center with Josh Myers. Left tackle Rasheed Walker is average. Their receiver group is good, not great and it remains to be seen what production they’ll get at running back.

Defensively, under a new coordinator there is more of a range of outcomes, but the Packers 2023 defense was tenth in points allowed and I’m not sure they have the players to do much better than that this season. The Packers defensive front is solid, and they have good secondary players in Jaire Alexander and Xavier McKinney, but the rest are unproven.

Overall, while the hope in Green Bay is that Jordan Love becomes their third-straight All-Pro starting quarterback, he’s not there yet. And while the Packers have a number of good players, they also are lacking star power. The only top ten performer at their position on their roster now from a year ago is safety Xavier McKinney, and he had just three games with a coverage grade over 75 (and ten below 65). Some of their best players in previous years have gone downhill in recent seasons in terms of PFF grades (Jaire Alexander, Kenny Clark, Rashan Gary) so we’ll see if a change in coordinator will help revive their performance or not.

But overall, I would not be surprised if the Packers fall short of current expectations for the season.

Poll

Where will the Packers finish within the division this season?

• 0%

  First

  (0 votes)

• 32%

  Second

  (8 votes)

• 52%

  Third

  (13 votes)

• 16%

  Last

  (4 votes)

25 votes total

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